Sunday 1 Aug - Tuesday 10 Aug
Changeable conditions continuing to dominate for the start of August, with a mixture of sunny and dry periods, showery periods and the chance of longer spells of rain. At first the south is likely to see the most showers, with the north remaining the driest, but by the end of the period the south and southeast will possibly be the driest and the west and northwest the wettest. There remains a chance for any showers or rain to produce thunderstorms. Temperatures are most likely cooler than average for this time of year, trending to slightly cooler than average or average through the period, with the south and southwest having the best chance of seeing average temperatures.

Wednesday 11 Aug - Wednesday 25 Aug
As is typical for this time of year, confidence is low for this period. However, there is a tentative sign of more settled conditions developing with higher pressure becoming slightly more likely. This means drier conditions may become more prevalent, although there is still the risk of showers or thunderstorms at times. Temperatures likely to trend to above average, with an increasing chance of hotter spells developing as the month progresses.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Monday 2 Aug - Wednesday 11 Aug
Changeable conditions continuing to dominate for the start of August, with a mixture of sunny and dry periods, showery periods and the chance of longer spells of rain. At first the south is likely to see the most showers, with the north remaining the driest, but by the end of the period the south and southeast will possibly be the driest and the west and northwest the wettest. There remains a chance for any showers or rain to produce thunderstorms. Temperatures are most likely cooler than average for this time of year, trending to slightly cooler than average or average through the period, with the south and southwest having the best chance of seeing average temperatures.

Thursday 12 Aug - Thursday 26 Aug
As is typical for this time of year, confidence is low for this period. However, there is a tentative sign of more settled conditions developing with higher pressure becoming slightly more likely. This means drier conditions may become more prevalent, although there is still the risk of showers or thunderstorms at times. Temperatures likely to trend to above average, with an increasing chance of hotter spells developing as the month progresses.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled, cooler weather. Drier later in August.

_________________________________

Wednesday 28 July to – Sunday 1 August

A cooler week with frequent showers or thunder.

Low pressure is expected to be in charge across northern Europe for the rest of this week and beyond. As we head toward the weekend though, the central low pressure is expected to drift more over Nordic countries to our east. This will provide a cooler northerly flow over the UK and keep temperatures a little below average for late July. High pressure to the west will struggle to move overhead, so scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected most days across the country. There is a chance for some heavier rain in the Southeast near the end of the week.

Monday 2 August to – Sunday 8 August

Staying unsettled and changeable. Feeling cooler.

The large area of low pressure in place over northern Europe is expected to stick around through at least the first half of August as high pressure builds in the Atlantic and Central Russia. These two highs will tend to dominate the large-scale weather systems, meaning low pressure near us will become trapped over northern or north-eastern Europe. What this means for the UK is that we can expect a lot of cooler, wetter, and at times windier weather than what we typically see in the late summertime. The day-to-day weather will also be more changeable, with perhaps some dry, sunny breaks here and there.

There doesn't look to be any large changes in the weather pattern across the North Atlantic and Europe at least for the next few weeks, so we have high confidence that we will continue to see some cooler, unsettled weather into mid-August. As weather fronts move through from the west or northwest, we may get a brief ridge of high pressure, but this shouldn't last for more than a day. This is thanks to the sharper temperature contrast we anticipate will develop over Europe, with cooler air in the northwest and warmth in the southeast.

These temperature contrasts help strengthen the jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere. This in turn drives surface weather systems and makes them pass through us quicker. There is a slight chance these ridges are a little more frequent, especially later in the week, and we see some more consistently dry, sunny weather. This would likely still be cooler than normal, as northerly winds will bring in air from near Iceland, but it would be much drier. We expect perhaps a 20% chance of this alternative scenario.

Monday 9 August to – Sunday 22 August

Unsettled and cool but maybe drier in late August.

The big question heading into the longer-range outlook is just how long with this low pressure pattern be stuck over the UK? The answer is likely at least through mid-August, although high pressure is looking a bit more likely later in the month. Through mid-August we think the most likely outlook if for continued low pressure in northern Europe. More frequent Atlantic weather fronts will keep things changeable day-to-day, with some warmer and drier spells likely, although they may be fleeting. This is still a cooler pattern with more frequent north-west winds dragging in air from nearer Iceland and Greenland. Between fronts will be the best time for warmer and drier conditions with short-lived ridges of high pressure move in from the southwest and bring more tropical air.

Late in August the forecast become a little more tricky with a growing potential for high pressure to be more influential. The latest computer model guidance favours a continuation of low pressure over the UK through the end of August, but this is a bit at odds with some of the signals we're seeing from the northern hemispheric weather patterns. To complicate things further, the UK is sat on the boundary between expected low pressure and high pressure.

We expect that low pressure will be shifting more to the north of Europe later in August which should gradually allow for high pressure to dry things out and bring some warmer, sunny days for late August. This should be a slow process, but for the second half of the month we are forecasting a greater likelihood of some drier, sunnier weather.

Further ahead

We will examine late August and see if meteorological summer will end of a hot and dry or cool and wet note.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Tuesday 3 Aug - Thursday 12 Aug

Changeable conditions continuing to dominate the first half of August, with a mixture of sunny and dry periods and showery spells for all, possibly merging to give longer spells of rain. Widespread thundery showers will give away to bands of rain from the Atlantic which may bring unsettled conditions to all parts. However the south and southeast potentially seeing drier weather and the west and northwest the wettest. There remains a chance for any showers or rain to produce thunderstorms, particularly in the far south. Temperatures are most likely cooler than average for this time of year, trending to slightly cooler than average or average through the period, with the south and southwest having the best chance of seeing average temperatures.

Friday 13 Aug - Friday 27 Aug

There is a tentative sign of more settled conditions developing with higher pressure becoming slightly more likely. This means drier conditions may become more prevalent, although there is still the risk of showers or thunderstorms at times. Temperatures likely to trend to above average, with an increasing chance of hotter spells developing as the month progresses.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 4 Aug - Friday 13 Aug

The unsettled, changeable conditions continue to dominate the picture for the first half of August. A mixture of sunny spells and showers, with some drier interludes, is the general pattern expected through this period for all. Some of these showery spells may merge to give slightly longer spells of rain. At first, scattered showers for most, with some thunderstorms likely to develop from these. Torrential downpours are likely in some places. Winds generally remaining breezy, with temperatures expected to be near to average, perhaps slightly above average in northern areas. Through the remainder of this period, it will likely turn settled, though a few showers cannot be ruled out, especially in southeastern areas. Drier weather than recently, with sunny spells for most through to mid-August, with temperatures trending above average.

Friday 13 Aug - Friday 27 Aug

There is a tentative sign of more settled conditions developing with higher pressure becoming slightly more likely. This means drier conditions may become more prevalent, although there is still the risk of showers or thunderstorms at times. Temperatures likely to trend to above average, with an increasing chance of hotter spells developing as the month progresses.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Thursday 5 Aug - Saturday 14 Aug

The unsettled, changeable conditions continue to dominate the picture for the first half of August. A mixture of sunny spells and showers, with some drier interludes, is the general pattern expected at the start of August for all. Some of these showery spells may merge to give slightly longer spells of rain. At first, scattered showers for most, with some thunderstorms likely to develop from these. Torrential downpours are likely in some places. Winds generally remaining breezy, with temperatures expected to be near to average, perhaps slightly above average in northern areas. Towards the middle of the month, it will likely turn more settled, though a few showers cannot be ruled out, especially in southeastern areas. Becoming drier than recently, with sunny spells for most temperatures trending above average.

Saturday 14 Aug - Saturday 28 Aug

Whilst there are current signals of a drier and warmer than average period from the middle of August, occasional spells of more unsettled weather, primarily in the northwest, remains possible. Accompanying this is a low risk of short-lived thundery spells, these mainly in southeastern parts. Confidence through this period remains low at present. Most should see dry and fine weather, however. Above average temperatures continue to be indicated through the remainder of August, with possibly even very warm conditions at times in southern areas.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/