Monday 12 Jul - Wednesday 21 Jul

We could see a continuation of showers and longer periods of rain going into next week, these potentially heavy and widespread. From mid-next week onwards, conditions could gradually become more settled with a good deal of dry weather, variable cloud and spells of sunshine, though this is still uncertain. For the remainder of this period, there is a greater chance of warmer and drier than average conditions overall. The occasional spell of rain and unsettled weather are still possible, particularly over northwestern areas. However, most of the UK could see fine and dry conditions with light showers at times. Temperatures are likely to be around average in the northwest and above average elsewhere, whilst south and southeastern areas could see conditions feeling very warm.

Thursday 22 Jul - Thursday 5 Aug

For the rest of July and into early August, there is a chance of conditions being warmer and drier than average overall. Some occasional spells of unsettled weather are still possible, especially in the northwest of the UK, but most areas should have a good deal of fine and dry weather. There remains a low risk of thunder, especially across southern and eastern areas. Temperatures are likely to be above average, with the south possibly feeling very warm or hot at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Tuesday 13 Jul - Thursday 22 Jul

Showers are expected to affect parts of the UK at first - these are most likely across northern and eastern areas with a good deal of dry weather elsewhere. During the second half of next week conditions are expected to become more settled with dry and bright weather developing for many areas. Some light showers are still possible in places, particularly in the northwest and southeast. Temperatures are likely to be around average, perhaps above average by the end of the week. Beyond this, warmer and drier than average conditions are most likely. The occasional unsettled spell of weather is still possible, particularly over northwestern areas, but overall most places will probably be mostly fine and dry. Temperatures are expected to rise above average.

Friday 23 Jul - Friday 6 Aug

For the rest of July and into early August, conditions are most likely to be warmer and drier than average. Some spells of unsettled weather are still possible, especially in the northwest of the UK, but overall most areas should have a good deal of fine and dry weather. There is a small chance of a few thunderstorms, especially across southern and eastern areas. Temperatures are likely to be above average, with the south possibly feeling very warm or hot at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Wednesday 14 Jul - Friday 23 Jul

Heavy, even possibly thundery, rain will clear the far southeast on Tuesday, with generally dry and fine conditions elsewhere. Temperatures initially sitting at average or slightly above, though cloud in the southeast may supress this slightly. Generally a mixture of sunny spells and showers for a couple of days will follow this, though showers likely less frequent in comparison. Most likely turning settled through the remainder of the period, but there is still the chance of a few showers developing during the day that can't be ruled out, especially in the southeast. Despite this, more dry weather than recently is expected, with variable cloud and sunny spells. The trend of temperatures being slightly above to above-average will continue.

Saturday 24 Jul - Saturday 7 Aug

For the rest of July and into early August, warmer and drier-than-average conditions are most probable overall. Occasional spells of more unsettled weather still remain possible, especially in northwestern areas, but the majority of the UK should see plenty of fine and dry weather. There is a low risk of temporary thundery conditions developing, especially across the south and east of the country, with a possibility of more changeable weather towards mid-August, with predictability becoming very low by then. Above-average temperatures continue to be signalled for much of the period, with some potential for hot periods in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Friday 16 Jul - Sunday 25 Jul

By the start of this period there is high confidence that there will have been a marked change to much more settled and warm weather, as an area of high pressure becomes slow-moving across much of the UK and Ireland. This should bring in a lot of fine and dry weather meaning long sunny spells, variable cloud and mainly light winds should become the general trend for most. Temperatures also likely to be above normal for most, and possibly becoming hot at times for parts of the south. The occasional wetter spell cannot be ruled out, however, with an increasing likelihood of showers developing for southern areas. These showers also have the potential to turn thundery.

Monday 26 Jul - Monday 9 Aug

For the remainder of July and into early august, warmer and drier conditions are most probable overall as it looks likely that high pressure will remain close to the UK. There is also a continued risk of thundery inclusions into the south east and for spells of more unsettled weather in the north west. Temperatures also look to remain above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Probably the most positive forecast of the summer, if you like dry and warm weather.

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Probably the most positive forecast of the summer, if you like dry and warm weather.

Indeed. And for the 2nd forecast period no mention of the usual 'low confidence' and tied up in the usual caveats of ifs & buts which usually ends up with the forecast saying that there is a chance of pretty much anything happening.

Not to say it will happen of course but perhaps looking ahead with more optimism than normal.

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Saturday 17 Jul - Monday 26 Jul

This period will continue to be influenced by an area of high pressure as it moves slowly across the UK and Ireland. This should bring in a lot of fine and dry weather meaning long sunny spells, variable cloud and light winds should become the general trend for most, though at times some fresher and cloudier conditions may be seen along the North Sea coasts. Temperatures also likely to be above normal for most, and possibly becoming hot at times in the south. The occasional wetter spell cannot be ruled out, however, with an increasing likelihood of showers developing for southern areas, these showers possibly turning thundery. The north west and far north also may see unsettled weather on occasion, bringing cloud and a chance of rain and drizzle.

Tuesday 27 Jul - Tuesday 10 Aug

For the remainder of July and into early august, warmer and drier conditions are most probable overall as it looks likely that high pressure will remain close to the UK. There is also a continued risk of thundery inclusions into the south east and for spells of more unsettled weather in the north west. Temperatures also look to remain above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Sunday 18 Jul - Tuesday 27 Jul

This period will continue to be influenced by an area of high pressure slowly moving across the UK. It's expected to be widely dry with plenty of sunshine developing on Sunday, however cloudy with perhaps some rain at times across the Northern Isles. Following this, it's likely that we'll see a good deal of dry weather with plenty of sunshine, at least at first. Through this period there's an increasing risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms developing from the South and West. Temperatures will continue to be very warm at first, and perhaps locally hot in central and southern areas, before probably becoming somewhat cooler and fresher from the southwest later next week heralding a change to a more unsettled spell towards the end of July.

Wednesday 28 Jul - Wednesday 11 Aug

A more unsettled interlude seems probable to end July with rain or showers for all areas, risk heavy and thundery, especially in the South. However, into early August, warmer and drier-than-average conditions look likely to return. Although, occasional spells of more unsettled weather remain possible, especially in the northwest, as well as a chance of temporary thundery showers, especially across the southeast. Confidence decreases after this with conditions thought to become generally more changeable towards mid-August. Above-average temperatures continue to be signalled for much of the period, perhaps becoming very warm or hot at times in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Quite a change in the Met Office outlook. Considerably more unsettled but still generally warm.

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Wednesday 21 Jul - Friday 30 Jul

This period will continue to be influenced by an area of high pressure slowly moving across the UK. The odd shower remains possible for Wednesday afternoon, but it will be largely dry with sunny spells; the best of these in the west, while cloudier and cooler conditions are expected for northern and eastern areas. Following this, it's likely that we'll see a change to more unsettled weather toward the weekend, with sunny spells and heavy, possibly thundery showers moving in from the south; northern areas are likely to see the driest conditions. Temperatures continue to be very warm at first, perhaps locally hot especially across parts of the west, before probably becoming somewhat cooler and fresher from the southwest later next week, heralding the change to the more unsettled spell.

Saturday 31 Jul - Saturday 14 Aug

An unsettled interlude is probable for the end of July, with rain or showers for most areas, these locally heavy and thundery, especially in the south. Into early August, warmer and drier-than-average conditions look likely to return for much of the UK, although some unsettled weather is still possible, especially in the northwest and the southeast. By mid-August confidence becomes rather low, but with changeable conditions most likely. Above-average temperatures continue to be signalled for much of the period, perhaps becoming very warm or hot at times in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Evidence of SE bias in media reporting 

"But UK residents may be startled to learn that despite the rain and cloud they experienced, it was the second warmest June on record for Europe."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57742482

 

 The only region that had above average rainfall during June was SE England.

It was the driest June since the war up here.

According to the Times, "Britain's washout summer is to be interrupted.."

What washout summer? It's been drier than average the first half of summer here 

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According to the Times, "Britain's washout summer is to be interrupted.."

What washout summer? It's been drier than average the first half of summer here 

Just a joke , people who know nothing about the weather writing about it. 

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Weak cold front drifting south through Scotland with cloud and temps 18–19 for Monday seemed to have changed to wall- to wall sunshine and 24dc in Glasgow..

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Just a joke , people who know nothing about the weather writing about it. 

Or more likely something to do with the Times offices being in London. It has been a pretty wet summer in the London area.

As this table shows, June had 160% of normal rainfall in SE and Central Southern England: Regional values - Met Office

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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2021/extreme-heat-warning-issued-for-western-areas 

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Saturday 24 Jul - Monday 2 Aug

High pressure begins to lessen it's grip by Saturday, as it drifts northwards. As it does so, more unsettled weather moves in for the weekend, starting in the south as heavy, possibly thundery, rain Saturday. Remaining very warm with plenty of sunshine in the northern half of the UK, and possibly locally hot, especially in the northwest. Cooler for some northern areas and windward coasts. Some low cloud, mist and sea fog can be expected for some of these areas, as well as parts of the southwest into Sunday. For the rest of the period, spells of rain or showers are likely for many areas, with some heavy rain or thunderstorms possible at times. Temperatures just above average for most, to modestly above average in the north. Winds remain light.

Tuesday 3 Aug - Tuesday 17 Aug

By early August, warmer and drier-than-average conditions look likely to return for much of the UK, although there is an increased risk of thunderstorms, especially in the southeast. By mid-August confidence becomes rather low, but with changeable conditions most likely. Above-average temperatures continue to be signalled for much of the period, perhaps becoming very warm or hot at times in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

This hasn't been updated for a while. Today's long-ranger:

Tuesday 27 Jul - Thursday 5 Aug
An unsettled start to the period with most places seeing showers developing by day on Tuesday, these possibly thundery at times. There is also a risk of more persistent and heavy rain affecting northern Scotland. Conditions remain changeable mid-week with outbreaks of rain moving in from the west, further thundery showers in between any drier interludes and stronger winds for the time of year. Temperatures are likely to dip back to near normal to warm for most. From the end of next week until early August, we will likely see changeable conditions with a mix of sunny spells and heavy showers, perhaps with some more prolonged rain at times. Currently, there is no preference towards any particular area seeing one regime dominate. Temperatures around average.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC+1) on Thu 22 Jul 2021


Thursday 5 Aug - Thursday 19 Aug
To begin the period, mixed conditions look likely to remain for a few more days, with no dominant weather type. Drier conditions with sunny spells are likely to be interspersed with showers or longer periods of rain. As we head further towards mid-August, it is most likely to become more settled with drier and warmer conditions developing. However, as with all long range forecasts, confidence become lower towards longer timescales.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Wed 21 Jul 2021

(Second half not updated yet)

 

More encouraging signs for mid August?

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The very warm/hot references have gone now. Generally looks like a mixed bag and probably fairly typical early August weather. Let's hope that mid August settled spell materialises.

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Tuesday 27 Jul - Thursday 5 Aug

An unsettled start to the period with most places seeing showers developing by day on Tuesday, these possibly thundery at times. There is also a risk of more persistent and heavy rain affecting northern Scotland. Conditions remain changeable mid-week with outbreaks of rain moving in from the west, further thundery showers in between any drier interludes and stronger winds for the time of year. Temperatures are likely to dip back to near normal to warm for most. From the end of next week until early August, we will likely see changeable conditions with a mix of sunny spells and heavy showers, perhaps with some more prolonged rain at times. Currently, there is no preference towards any particular area seeing one regime dominate. Temperatures around average.

Friday 6 Aug - Friday 20 Aug

To begin the period, mixed conditions look likely to remain for a few more days, with no dominant weather type. Drier conditions with sunny spells are likely to be interspersed with showers or longer periods of rain. As we head further towards mid-August, it is most likely to become more settled with drier and warmer conditions developing. However, as with all long range forecasts, confidence become lower towards longer timescales.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

The lightning map shows some impressive activity off Brest.

Will they progress this way and give the first electrical storms of the summer for IMBY?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2651101

https://www.lightningmaps.org/#m=oss;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=;ts=0;y=47.621;x=-4.9768;z=6;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;

There have been so many false alarms this year and based on the previous media warnings I guess people around here will ignore them like the others.

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