Tuesday 22 Jun - Thursday 1 Jul

Unsettled conditions are likely to continue at the start of this period, with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered heavy showers, and a risk of thunder and perhaps hail. Longer spells of rain are also possible in the north and west. Atlantic air then looks likely to spread across the country from the west through the week, bringing a change to cooler and more changeable conditions. This will likely bring spells of rain or showers interspersed with periods of dry weather and sunny spells. The driest and brightest conditions are likely in the southeast, though further showers or thunderstorms are possible here. Temperatures are likely to recover to near normal by the end of the month.

Friday 2 Jul - Friday 16 Jul

Confidence is low through this period due to mixed and weak signals, but models suggest that usual summertime conditions are most probable. We are likely to see periods of dry, settled and warm weather interspersed with occasional days of thicker cloud, rain and stronger winds. Temperatures are likely to be close to average nationally. Southeastern areas may see some warm or very warm conditions at times, but these probably balanced out by cooler interludes moving in from the west. Overall, rainfall accumulations are expected to be close to average for the time of the year. Whilst southeastern areas may see fewer spells of persistent rain, thunderstorms may develop during warmer periods.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 25 Jun - Sunday 4 Jul

Friday will see generally average temperatures, and a band of cloud and rain across central and southern parts gradually moving southeastwards throughout the day; drier, sunnier conditions to be expected further northwest. Then, predominantly dry weather is likely for most, but with briefly more unsettled spells of rain or showers for southern and eastern parts, as well as more prolonged rain for the northwest of the UK. Winds are most likely remaining light to moderate throughout, with temperatures hovering at or slightly above average for the time of year. Confidence becomes lower later into the period, but there is a chance of high pressure building for a time. This will most likely bring further periods of settled weather, interspersed with brief more unsettled spells.

Monday 5 Jul - Monday 19 Jul

Confidence remains low for this period, but it is possible that periods of generally settled conditions will continue, these interspersed with some briefly unsettled spells at times. Most of the rainfall from fronts moving into the country will be over northern parts of the UK. Temperatures will probably remain around average for this time of the year, with many areas seeing warm weather.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Saturday 26 Jun - Monday 5 Jul

Saturday will likely start cloudy in the south with outbreaks of light, patchy rain tending to brighten up through the day, however with a risk of heavy showers during the afternoon. Elsewhere will likely be dry with some sunny spells, light winds and temperatures mostly near normal. Then, predominantly dry weather is likely, but with briefly more unsettled spells of rain or showers for southern and eastern parts, alongside more prolonged rain for the northwest of the UK. Winds are most likely remaining light to moderate throughout, with temperatures at or slightly above average for the time of year. Confidence decreases later into the period, however, there's a chance of high pressure building for a time, likely bringing further periods of settled weather interspersed with brief more unsettled spells.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC+1) on Mon 21 Jun 2021

Tuesday 6 Jul - Tuesday 20 Jul

Confidence remains low for this period, but it is possible that periods of generally settled conditions will continue, these interspersed with some briefly unsettled spells at times. Most of the rainfall from fronts moving into the country will be over northern parts of the UK. Temperatures will probably remain around average for this time of the year, with many areas seeing warm weather.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Tuesday 29 Jun - Thursday 8 Jul

Unsettled in the south of the UK on Tuesday with persistent rain likely and thundery showers possible, accompanied by stronger winds. Elsewhere, drier with long spells of sunshine and lighter winds. Temperatures will be warm for most, though locally suppressed under the unsettled weather. Confidence is then lower, although on balance a lot of fine and dry weather is most likely throughout. However, there are signals for some brief unsettled periods with southern and eastern areas seeing showers, possibly heavy and thundery, and more prolonged rain in the northwest. Temperatures are likely be above normal, with the potential for some very warm and humid days in the south. Winds will likely be light to moderate throughout, with a westerly flow across northern areas, and an easterly flow across the south.

Friday 9 Jul - Friday 23 Jul

Although confidence remains low, in general settled conditions are likely, with a few brief unsettled spells possible. Some northwestern areas will likely see brief spells rain and cloudy conditions at times, as well as a continued risk for periods of heavy rain or thunderstorms especially across the south. Above-average temperatures continue to be well signalled, with the chance of some very warm or hot days to come.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Thursday 1 Jul - Saturday 10 Jul

Likely a fine and dry day for most on Wednesday, although expecting increasingly large amounts of cloud inland initially, gradually burning back to the coast by day. Any showery rain will likely be confined to southeasternmost areas, but the odd heavier burst remains possible. Winds mostly light, and feeling warm or vary warm for most. Confidence is then lower, but the country is most likely to see a split between the southwest and northeast, with southern and western parts seeing some showers, and perhaps longer spells of rain, with the best of any dry weather across the north and east. Temps are likely to trend above normal, notably across some parts of the northeast. Winds remaining light to moderate for most, though possibly strong in the west at times.

Saturday 10 Jul - Saturday 24 Jul

Despite confidence remaining low through this period, the emphasis is on fine and dry weather for the majority of the UK through much of the rest of July. Some northwestern areas may perhaps experience slightly more rain and more cloud than elsewhere, but throughout there is a very low risk of thundery conditions, especially in southern areas, and more likely later in the period. Above average temperatures continue to maintain the strongest signal, which increases the possibility of some very warm or hot spells occurring.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Tuesday 6 Jul - Thursday 15 Jul

Unsettled and rather changeable conditions look most likely through the start of this period, bringing some sunny spells but also spells of rain or showers, which at times could be heavy and thundery. Temperatures generally rather warm or locally very warm in the sunniest areas. Through the new week, sunny spells and showers, or perhaps longer spells of rain are most likely across the southern half of the UK, with northern and eastern areas likely to experience the best of any fine and dry weather. Temperatures are most likely to be above normal, notably in any prolonged sunshine. Looking to become cooler in the south, from the southwest, starting from Monday. Winds will at times be strong, with coastal gales in the west and northwest.

Friday 16 Jul - Friday 30 Jul

As is typical for the time of year, confidence is relatively low for this period, but fine and dry weather for much of the UK is most likely for the rest of July. There is however the possibility that occasional spells of rain may impact north-western areas, with a very low risk of thundery conditions developing at times across the south. Temperatures are likely to be above average for much of this period, with an increased risk of some very warm or hot spells occurring.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Mostly unsettled with a warm, dry spell later

_________________________________

Saturday 3 July to – Sunday 11 July

Unsettled and cool week with a few dry spells

Low pressure is set to move into the British Isles this weekend, bringing some heavy rain in places and chances for thunderstorms. A secondary low pressure system is expected to move in from the southwest early next week, making for a stormy few days for southern areas. Unsettled weather should persist throughout next week, although as the weather systems weaken later there may be a few sunny and dry spells mixed in too. Temperatures will tend to be near or a touch below average, with the coolest days expected around midweek.

Monday 12 July to – Sunday 18 July

More unsettled, cooler, and wetter weather

Through the middle of July, we expect that the most likely scenario is for a large-scale low pressure trough to persist over northern Europe, including the British Isles. This means that we should see a continuation of the cooler, wetter pattern as low pressure systems are often nearby or overhead. One complicating factor for the longer range forecasts this month is that the jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that helps drive weather fronts, is rather weak at the moment. This is normal for summertime, but it also means that low pressure systems that tend to move through and head east will instead stall and sit in place, lasting much longer. However, it also means these lows will tend to be weaker, so it shouldn't be particularly windy.

Our best chances for warmer weather will be if the winds shift out of the southwest or south. There's little support for southerly winds through mid-July, but south-westerly winds are possible if high pressure builds into Germany. The main risk to the forecast is that high pressure in the Atlantic may build stronger into northern Europe than we expect. This would be a drier pattern for southern and eastern areas although wetter weather would still be possible in the west and north. Temperatures would also be a little warmer, rising slightly above average especially for southern areas. Our shorter-range computer models are showing good support for this, but they have been tending to overestimate the extent of high pressure in Europe, so caution is needed. There is perhaps a 30% chance of this pattern developing instead.

Monday 19 July to – Sunday 1 August

Decent chance of a warm, dry spell later

For the second half of July the large-scale pattern may see a bit of a shake-up thanks to some tropical rainfall anomalies around Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. Historically, this supports high pressure in the Atlantic to shift eastwards across northern Europe and head into Russia in the following weeks. In recent months this has been a useful forecasting aid and brought a couple of warm spells, such as the one we saw during the first half of June.

We think the best chances for a warmer and drier spell will be in late-July as high pressure shifts overhead from the southwest before continuing eastward into Russia. This period will likely last around a week or so and see some prolonged dry, sunny, and warm weather for the whole UK. This would be a more south-westerly wind carrying sub-tropical Atlantic air, which is warmer than normal but not overly hot. There is a chance that we could see a hot southerly wind for a few days as high pressure shifts into Germany, but confidence is low on that.

Towards the end of the month and into early August as the high moves further east, low pressure will likely return from the northwest. This will bring some fresher Atlantic air and more unsettled weather back to the UK. The cooler weather will likely be the norm for this summer, with only temporary deviations to warmer, drier spells. Confidence is low for the second half of July due to the potential for the tropical rainfall anomalies failing to develop, or to fail to link to the European weather pattern. In this case low pressure will linger throughout the month with only brief dry spells as weak highs move through. There is a 35% chance of this developing instead.

Further ahead

Any more signs of warm and dry weather in the forecast? How could tropical rainfall patterns influence the weather pattern through late July?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 8 Jul - Saturday 17 Jul

While Wednesday is likely to be another unsettled day with rain or showers, after this there is expected to be a trend towards more settled conditions as drier weather develops from the west. By the end of the week, many areas should see a of of dry weather, although still some showers at times. There is a lower chance of seeing more prolonged unsettled weather, mainly in the west. Towards the end of the period things are looking mostly fine and dry, though there remains a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Many areas are likely to see temperatures trending upwards through the period, with parts of the south potentially becoming very warm. Winds are looking to remain light across the UK for most of the period.

Sunday 18 Jul - Sunday 1 Aug

As is typical for the time of year, confidence is relatively low for this period, but fine and dry weather for much of the UK is most likely for the rest of July. There is however the possibility that occasional spells of rain may impact north-western areas, with a very low chance of thundery conditions developing at times, likely in the south. Temperatures are likely to be above average for much of this period, with an increased chance of some very warm or hot spells occurring.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 9 Jul - Sunday 18 Jul

A settled regime will likely be in place across much of the country at the end of next week as drier and warmer weather develops from the west. However, there is the threat of some spells of rain and a few showers potentially crossing the northern half of the country. There is a lower chance of seeing more prolonged unsettled weather, mainly in the west. Towards the end of the period things are looking mostly fine and dry, though there remains a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Many areas are likely to see temperatures trending upwards through the period, with parts of the south potentially becoming very warm. Winds are looking to remain light across the UK for most of the period.

Monday 19 Jul - Monday 2 Aug

As is typical for the time of year, confidence is relatively low for this period, but fine and dry weather for much of the UK is most likely for the rest of July. There is however the possibility that occasional spells of rain may impact north-western areas, with a very low chance of thundery conditions developing at times, likely in the south. Temperatures are likely to be above average for much of this period, with an increased chance of some very warm or hot spells occurring.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Saturday 10 Jul - Monday 19 Jul

A cloudy start over the weekend with some rain likely in south and southwestern areas. This could break up into showers into next week, potentially widespread and heavy, especially across central and southern areas. Drier and warmer weather will then develop from the west with just a few light showers possible. The threat of some spells of rain and a few showers potentially crossing the northern half of the country at times remains. Towards the end of the period conditions are looking mostly fine and dry, though there remains a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Many areas are likely to see temperatures trending upwards through the period, with parts of the south potentially becoming very warm. Winds are looking to remain light across the UK for most of the period.

Tuesday 20 Jul - Tuesday 3 Aug

As is typical for the time of year, confidence is relatively low for this period, but fine and dry weather for much of the UK is most likely for the rest of July. There is however the possibility that occasional spells of rain may impact northwestern areas, with a very low chance of thundery conditions developing at times, especially across the south. Temperatures are likely to be above average for much of this period, with an increased chance of some very warm spells occurring in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 11 Jul - Tuesday 20 Jul

We could see a continuation of showers and longer periods of rain going into next week, these potentially heavy and widespread. From mid-next week onwards, it is most likely turning increasingly settled with a good deal of dry weather, variable cloud and spells of sunshine. For the remainder of this period, there is a chance of warmer and drier than average conditions overall. The occasional spell of rain and unsettled weather are still possible, particularly over northwestern areas. However, most of the UK could see fine and dry conditions with slight showers at times for some. Temperatures are likely to be around average in the northwest and above average elsewhere, whilst south and southeastern areas could see conditions feeling very warm.

Wednesday 21 Jul - Wednesday 4 Aug

For the rest of July and into early August, there is a chance of conditions being warmer and drier than average overall. Some occasional spells of unsettled weather are still possible, especially in the northwest of the UK, but most areas should have a good deal of fine and dry weather. There remains a low risk of thunder, especially across southern and eastern areas. Temperatures are likely to be above average, with the south possibly feeling very warm or hot at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Evidence of SE bias in media reporting 

"But UK residents may be startled to learn that despite the rain and cloud they experienced, it was the second warmest June on record for Europe."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57742482

 The only region that had above average rainfall during June was SE England.

It was the driest June since the war up here.

Monday 12 Jul - Wednesday 21 Jul

We could see a continuation of showers and longer periods of rain going into next week, these potentially heavy and widespread. From mid-next week onwards, conditions could gradually become more settled with a good deal of dry weather, variable cloud and spells of sunshine, though this is still uncertain. For the remainder of this period, there is a greater chance of warmer and drier than average conditions overall. The occasional spell of rain and unsettled weather are still possible, particularly over northwestern areas. However, most of the UK could see fine and dry conditions with light showers at times. Temperatures are likely to be around average in the northwest and above average elsewhere, whilst south and southeastern areas could see conditions feeling very warm.

Thursday 22 Jul - Thursday 5 Aug

For the rest of July and into early August, there is a chance of conditions being warmer and drier than average overall. Some occasional spells of unsettled weather are still possible, especially in the northwest of the UK, but most areas should have a good deal of fine and dry weather. There remains a low risk of thunder, especially across southern and eastern areas. Temperatures are likely to be above average, with the south possibly feeling very warm or hot at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Tuesday 13 Jul - Thursday 22 Jul

Showers are expected to affect parts of the UK at first - these are most likely across northern and eastern areas with a good deal of dry weather elsewhere. During the second half of next week conditions are expected to become more settled with dry and bright weather developing for many areas. Some light showers are still possible in places, particularly in the northwest and southeast. Temperatures are likely to be around average, perhaps above average by the end of the week. Beyond this, warmer and drier than average conditions are most likely. The occasional unsettled spell of weather is still possible, particularly over northwestern areas, but overall most places will probably be mostly fine and dry. Temperatures are expected to rise above average.

Friday 23 Jul - Friday 6 Aug

For the rest of July and into early August, conditions are most likely to be warmer and drier than average. Some spells of unsettled weather are still possible, especially in the northwest of the UK, but overall most areas should have a good deal of fine and dry weather. There is a small chance of a few thunderstorms, especially across southern and eastern areas. Temperatures are likely to be above average, with the south possibly feeling very warm or hot at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 14 Jul - Friday 23 Jul

Heavy, even possibly thundery, rain will clear the far southeast on Tuesday, with generally dry and fine conditions elsewhere. Temperatures initially sitting at average or slightly above, though cloud in the southeast may supress this slightly. Generally a mixture of sunny spells and showers for a couple of days will follow this, though showers likely less frequent in comparison. Most likely turning settled through the remainder of the period, but there is still the chance of a few showers developing during the day that can't be ruled out, especially in the southeast. Despite this, more dry weather than recently is expected, with variable cloud and sunny spells. The trend of temperatures being slightly above to above-average will continue.

Saturday 24 Jul - Saturday 7 Aug

For the rest of July and into early August, warmer and drier-than-average conditions are most probable overall. Occasional spells of more unsettled weather still remain possible, especially in northwestern areas, but the majority of the UK should see plenty of fine and dry weather. There is a low risk of temporary thundery conditions developing, especially across the south and east of the country, with a possibility of more changeable weather towards mid-August, with predictability becoming very low by then. Above-average temperatures continue to be signalled for much of the period, with some potential for hot periods in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 16 Jul - Sunday 25 Jul

By the start of this period there is high confidence that there will have been a marked change to much more settled and warm weather, as an area of high pressure becomes slow-moving across much of the UK and Ireland. This should bring in a lot of fine and dry weather meaning long sunny spells, variable cloud and mainly light winds should become the general trend for most. Temperatures also likely to be above normal for most, and possibly becoming hot at times for parts of the south. The occasional wetter spell cannot be ruled out, however, with an increasing likelihood of showers developing for southern areas. These showers also have the potential to turn thundery.

Monday 26 Jul - Monday 9 Aug

For the remainder of July and into early august, warmer and drier conditions are most probable overall as it looks likely that high pressure will remain close to the UK. There is also a continued risk of thundery inclusions into the south east and for spells of more unsettled weather in the north west. Temperatures also look to remain above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Indeed. And for the 2nd forecast period no mention of the usual 'low confidence' and tied up in the usual caveats of ifs & buts which usually ends up with the forecast saying that there is a chance of pretty much anything happening.

Not to say it will happen of course but perhaps looking ahead with more optimism than normal.

Saturday 17 Jul - Monday 26 Jul

This period will continue to be influenced by an area of high pressure as it moves slowly across the UK and Ireland. This should bring in a lot of fine and dry weather meaning long sunny spells, variable cloud and light winds should become the general trend for most, though at times some fresher and cloudier conditions may be seen along the North Sea coasts. Temperatures also likely to be above normal for most, and possibly becoming hot at times in the south. The occasional wetter spell cannot be ruled out, however, with an increasing likelihood of showers developing for southern areas, these showers possibly turning thundery. The north west and far north also may see unsettled weather on occasion, bringing cloud and a chance of rain and drizzle.

Tuesday 27 Jul - Tuesday 10 Aug

For the remainder of July and into early august, warmer and drier conditions are most probable overall as it looks likely that high pressure will remain close to the UK. There is also a continued risk of thundery inclusions into the south east and for spells of more unsettled weather in the north west. Temperatures also look to remain above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 18 Jul - Tuesday 27 Jul

This period will continue to be influenced by an area of high pressure slowly moving across the UK. It's expected to be widely dry with plenty of sunshine developing on Sunday, however cloudy with perhaps some rain at times across the Northern Isles. Following this, it's likely that we'll see a good deal of dry weather with plenty of sunshine, at least at first. Through this period there's an increasing risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms developing from the South and West. Temperatures will continue to be very warm at first, and perhaps locally hot in central and southern areas, before probably becoming somewhat cooler and fresher from the southwest later next week heralding a change to a more unsettled spell towards the end of July.

Wednesday 28 Jul - Wednesday 11 Aug

A more unsettled interlude seems probable to end July with rain or showers for all areas, risk heavy and thundery, especially in the South. However, into early August, warmer and drier-than-average conditions look likely to return. Although, occasional spells of more unsettled weather remain possible, especially in the northwest, as well as a chance of temporary thundery showers, especially across the southeast. Confidence decreases after this with conditions thought to become generally more changeable towards mid-August. Above-average temperatures continue to be signalled for much of the period, perhaps becoming very warm or hot at times in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 21 Jul - Friday 30 Jul

This period will continue to be influenced by an area of high pressure slowly moving across the UK. The odd shower remains possible for Wednesday afternoon, but it will be largely dry with sunny spells; the best of these in the west, while cloudier and cooler conditions are expected for northern and eastern areas. Following this, it's likely that we'll see a change to more unsettled weather toward the weekend, with sunny spells and heavy, possibly thundery showers moving in from the south; northern areas are likely to see the driest conditions. Temperatures continue to be very warm at first, perhaps locally hot especially across parts of the west, before probably becoming somewhat cooler and fresher from the southwest later next week, heralding the change to the more unsettled spell.

Saturday 31 Jul - Saturday 14 Aug

An unsettled interlude is probable for the end of July, with rain or showers for most areas, these locally heavy and thundery, especially in the south. Into early August, warmer and drier-than-average conditions look likely to return for much of the UK, although some unsettled weather is still possible, especially in the northwest and the southeast. By mid-August confidence becomes rather low, but with changeable conditions most likely. Above-average temperatures continue to be signalled for much of the period, perhaps becoming very warm or hot at times in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/