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KevBrads1
17 July 2021 08:45:44


Evidence of SE bias in media reporting 


"But UK residents may be startled to learn that despite the rain and cloud they experienced, it was the second warmest June on record for Europe."


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57742482


 


 The only region that had above average rainfall during June was SE England.


It was the driest June since the war up here.


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


According to the Times, "Britain's washout summer is to be interrupted.."


What washout summer? It's been drier than average the first half of summer here 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Ally Pally Snowman
17 July 2021 08:49:05


 


According to the Times, "Britain's washout summer is to be interrupted.."


What washout summer? It's been drier than average the first half of summer here 


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


Just a joke , people who know nothing about the weather writing about it. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
dagspot
18 July 2021 19:43:13
Weak cold front drifting south through Scotland with cloud and temps 18–19 for Monday seemed to have changed to wall- to wall sunshine and 24dc in Glasgow..
Neilston 600ft ASL
Rob K
19 July 2021 15:17:23


 


Just a joke , people who know nothing about the weather writing about it. 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Or more likely something to do with the Times offices being in London. It has been a pretty wet summer in the London area.


As this table shows, June had 160% of normal rainfall in SE and Central Southern England: Regional values - Met Office


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
19 July 2021 15:41:03
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2021/extreme-heat-warning-issued-for-western-areas 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gavin D
19 July 2021 20:37:11

Saturday 24 Jul - Monday 2 Aug


High pressure begins to lessen it's grip by Saturday, as it drifts northwards. As it does so, more unsettled weather moves in for the weekend, starting in the south as heavy, possibly thundery, rain Saturday. Remaining very warm with plenty of sunshine in the northern half of the UK, and possibly locally hot, especially in the northwest. Cooler for some northern areas and windward coasts. Some low cloud, mist and sea fog can be expected for some of these areas, as well as parts of the southwest into Sunday. For the rest of the period, spells of rain or showers are likely for many areas, with some heavy rain or thunderstorms possible at times. Temperatures just above average for most, to modestly above average in the north. Winds remain light.


Tuesday 3 Aug - Tuesday 17 Aug


By early August, warmer and drier-than-average conditions look likely to return for much of the UK, although there is an increased risk of thunderstorms, especially in the southeast. By mid-August confidence becomes rather low, but with changeable conditions most likely. Above-average temperatures continue to be signalled for much of the period, perhaps becoming very warm or hot at times in the south.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 

Rob K
22 July 2021 14:40:25

This hasn't been updated for a while. Today's long-ranger:

Tuesday 27 Jul - Thursday 5 Aug
An unsettled start to the period with most places seeing showers developing by day on Tuesday, these possibly thundery at times. There is also a risk of more persistent and heavy rain affecting northern Scotland. Conditions remain changeable mid-week with outbreaks of rain moving in from the west, further thundery showers in between any drier interludes and stronger winds for the time of year. Temperatures are likely to dip back to near normal to warm for most. From the end of next week until early August, we will likely see changeable conditions with a mix of sunny spells and heavy showers, perhaps with some more prolonged rain at times. Currently, there is no preference towards any particular area seeing one regime dominate. Temperatures around average.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC+1) on Thu 22 Jul 2021


Thursday 5 Aug - Thursday 19 Aug
To begin the period, mixed conditions look likely to remain for a few more days, with no dominant weather type. Drier conditions with sunny spells are likely to be interspersed with showers or longer periods of rain. As we head further towards mid-August, it is most likely to become more settled with drier and warmer conditions developing. However, as with all long range forecasts, confidence become lower towards longer timescales.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Wed 21 Jul 2021

(Second half not updated yet)


 


More encouraging signs for mid August?


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
22 July 2021 15:13:26
The very warm/hot references have gone now. Generally looks like a mixed bag and probably fairly typical early August weather. Let's hope that mid August settled spell materialises.
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Gavin D
22 July 2021 20:35:59

Tuesday 27 Jul - Thursday 5 Aug


An unsettled start to the period with most places seeing showers developing by day on Tuesday, these possibly thundery at times. There is also a risk of more persistent and heavy rain affecting northern Scotland. Conditions remain changeable mid-week with outbreaks of rain moving in from the west, further thundery showers in between any drier interludes and stronger winds for the time of year. Temperatures are likely to dip back to near normal to warm for most. From the end of next week until early August, we will likely see changeable conditions with a mix of sunny spells and heavy showers, perhaps with some more prolonged rain at times. Currently, there is no preference towards any particular area seeing one regime dominate. Temperatures around average.


Friday 6 Aug - Friday 20 Aug


To begin the period, mixed conditions look likely to remain for a few more days, with no dominant weather type. Drier conditions with sunny spells are likely to be interspersed with showers or longer periods of rain. As we head further towards mid-August, it is most likely to become more settled with drier and warmer conditions developing. However, as with all long range forecasts, confidence become lower towards longer timescales.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
23 July 2021 07:18:10

The lightning map shows some impressive activity off Brest.


Will they progress this way and give the first electrical storms of the summer for IMBY?


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2651101


https://www.lightningmaps.org/#m=oss;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=;ts=0;y=47.621;x=-4.9768;z=6;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;


There have been so many false alarms this year and based on the previous media warnings I guess people around here will ignore them like the others.


Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
Gavin D
24 July 2021 20:06:39

Thursday 29 Jul - Saturday 7 Aug


Remaining unsettled through much of this period, with most places seeing showers or rain at times. Heavy and persistent rain is likely across northern Scotland on Thursday and the rest of the UK could well see showers develop though the day, some heavy and possibly thundery at times. Conditions remain changeable with outbreaks of rain moving in from the west, and further thundery showers possible between any drier interludes. Stronger that average winds are expected for the time of year. From the end of next week until early August, we will likely see mixed conditions with sunny spells and heavy showers, perhaps with some more prolonged rain at times. Southwestern areas possibly staying driest whereas the northeast could be wetter than usual. Average temperatures are expected.


Sunday 8 Aug - Sunday 22 Aug


Changeable conditions look likely to continue through the start of this period, with sunny spells mixed in with some showers at times or longer spells of rain, these more prevalent in the northwest. Although confidence in the detail is low, there are tentative signals suggesting that high pressure may become more dominant during the middle of August, bringing more settled, drier and warmer conditions for many. There would still be a risk of showers or thunderstorms at times. Temperatures are most likely to be above average.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 

Rob K
24 July 2021 21:49:40
The weather warnings for today seem to have been very over the top. Our local Saturday market decided yesterday to cancel because of the weather forecast but in fact it has been totally dry apart from a brief spell of rain around 6-7am and then an hour or so of drizzle around midday.

This evening we were able to have a barbecue outside in warm sunshine.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
fairweather
26 July 2021 09:18:04

As with our record breaking deluge during the week I don't think they emphasised the extent to which downpours would be localised as they often do. Effectively all of yesterday's came as a "streamer" around the outer radius of the LP. Those in  the middle and outside of it got nothing.


 


S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
26 July 2021 09:20:14

Probably one of the most stupid weather related headlines I've ever read, saying that Japan lied about their weather to get the Olympics!


https://uk.yahoo.com/sports/news/japan-lied-about-the-weather-and-now-olympians-are-paying-the-price-010612634.html


Like the weather and climate of a Country is shrouded in secrecy and nobody could possibly have found out it can get very hot there in summer!


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Sevendust
26 July 2021 09:55:03


Probably one of the most stupid weather related headlines I've ever read, saying that Japan lied about their weather to get the Olympics!


https://uk.yahoo.com/sports/news/japan-lied-about-the-weather-and-now-olympians-are-paying-the-price-010612634.html


Like the weather and climate of a Country is shrouded in secrecy and nobody could possibly have found out it can get very hot there in summer!


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Also pointless when you realise that Qatar has the World Cup

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
26 July 2021 18:53:49
The BBC’s latest, issued last Friday, doesn’t make for pleasant reading:

Turning unsettled and cooler for much of August.

After a week-long heat wave in the UK, temperatures are set to moderate as low pressure moves in this weekend. This area of lower pressure will become trapped over the UK and linger here for several weeks, keeping things unsettled, changeable, and a bit cooler than normal for August. After the middle of the month, there is a growing chance of higher pressure developing nearby or overhead, bringing sunnier and warmer weather along with a slight risk of another heat wave. However, we expect low pressure to be the main weather driver until mid-August, and potentially for the entire month.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
tallyho_83
27 July 2021 00:42:33
I wonder where Lameteo get their data from? What model is this long range forecast based on?

Snow for Belfast in December if this comes about haha! :D


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
27 July 2021 15:04:04

I wonder where Lameteo get their data from? What model is this long range forecast based on?

Snow for Belfast in December if this comes about haha! :D

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQMmOfKSSuE


 


I'm sure that LaMeteo are using the latest ultra high tech weather modelling techniques so I'd say that their December forecast is pretty much guaranteed.
Perhaps more to the point, why are you worried about December snow when we are still in July? 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Gavin D
28 July 2021 07:30:45

Sunday 1 Aug - Tuesday 10 Aug
Changeable conditions continuing to dominate for the start of August, with a mixture of sunny and dry periods, showery periods and the chance of longer spells of rain. At first the south is likely to see the most showers, with the north remaining the driest, but by the end of the period the south and southeast will possibly be the driest and the west and northwest the wettest. There remains a chance for any showers or rain to produce thunderstorms. Temperatures are most likely cooler than average for this time of year, trending to slightly cooler than average or average through the period, with the south and southwest having the best chance of seeing average temperatures.


Wednesday 11 Aug - Wednesday 25 Aug
As is typical for this time of year, confidence is low for this period. However, there is a tentative sign of more settled conditions developing with higher pressure becoming slightly more likely. This means drier conditions may become more prevalent, although there is still the risk of showers or thunderstorms at times. Temperatures likely to trend to above average, with an increasing chance of hotter spells developing as the month progresses.


 


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Gavin D
28 July 2021 18:56:11

Monday 2 Aug - Wednesday 11 Aug
Changeable conditions continuing to dominate for the start of August, with a mixture of sunny and dry periods, showery periods and the chance of longer spells of rain. At first the south is likely to see the most showers, with the north remaining the driest, but by the end of the period the south and southeast will possibly be the driest and the west and northwest the wettest. There remains a chance for any showers or rain to produce thunderstorms. Temperatures are most likely cooler than average for this time of year, trending to slightly cooler than average or average through the period, with the south and southwest having the best chance of seeing average temperatures.


Thursday 12 Aug - Thursday 26 Aug
As is typical for this time of year, confidence is low for this period. However, there is a tentative sign of more settled conditions developing with higher pressure becoming slightly more likely. This means drier conditions may become more prevalent, although there is still the risk of showers or thunderstorms at times. Temperatures likely to trend to above average, with an increasing chance of hotter spells developing as the month progresses.


 


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 

Gavin D
28 July 2021 18:58:51

BBC monthly outlook


Summary


Unsettled, cooler weather. Drier later in August.


_________________________________


Wednesday 28 July to – Sunday 1 August


A cooler week with frequent showers or thunder.


Low pressure is expected to be in charge across northern Europe for the rest of this week and beyond. As we head toward the weekend though, the central low pressure is expected to drift more over Nordic countries to our east. This will provide a cooler northerly flow over the UK and keep temperatures a little below average for late July. High pressure to the west will struggle to move overhead, so scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected most days across the country. There is a chance for some heavier rain in the Southeast near the end of the week.


Monday 2 August to – Sunday 8 August


Staying unsettled and changeable. Feeling cooler.


The large area of low pressure in place over northern Europe is expected to stick around through at least the first half of August as high pressure builds in the Atlantic and Central Russia. These two highs will tend to dominate the large-scale weather systems, meaning low pressure near us will become trapped over northern or north-eastern Europe. What this means for the UK is that we can expect a lot of cooler, wetter, and at times windier weather than what we typically see in the late summertime. The day-to-day weather will also be more changeable, with perhaps some dry, sunny breaks here and there.


There doesn't look to be any large changes in the weather pattern across the North Atlantic and Europe at least for the next few weeks, so we have high confidence that we will continue to see some cooler, unsettled weather into mid-August. As weather fronts move through from the west or northwest, we may get a brief ridge of high pressure, but this shouldn't last for more than a day. This is thanks to the sharper temperature contrast we anticipate will develop over Europe, with cooler air in the northwest and warmth in the southeast.


These temperature contrasts help strengthen the jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere. This in turn drives surface weather systems and makes them pass through us quicker. There is a slight chance these ridges are a little more frequent, especially later in the week, and we see some more consistently dry, sunny weather. This would likely still be cooler than normal, as northerly winds will bring in air from near Iceland, but it would be much drier. We expect perhaps a 20% chance of this alternative scenario.


Monday 9 August to – Sunday 22 August


Unsettled and cool but maybe drier in late August.


The big question heading into the longer-range outlook is just how long with this low pressure pattern be stuck over the UK? The answer is likely at least through mid-August, although high pressure is looking a bit more likely later in the month. Through mid-August we think the most likely outlook if for continued low pressure in northern Europe. More frequent Atlantic weather fronts will keep things changeable day-to-day, with some warmer and drier spells likely, although they may be fleeting. This is still a cooler pattern with more frequent north-west winds dragging in air from nearer Iceland and Greenland. Between fronts will be the best time for warmer and drier conditions with short-lived ridges of high pressure move in from the southwest and bring more tropical air.


Late in August the forecast become a little more tricky with a growing potential for high pressure to be more influential. The latest computer model guidance favours a continuation of low pressure over the UK through the end of August, but this is a bit at odds with some of the signals we're seeing from the northern hemispheric weather patterns. To complicate things further, the UK is sat on the boundary between expected low pressure and high pressure.


We expect that low pressure will be shifting more to the north of Europe later in August which should gradually allow for high pressure to dry things out and bring some warmer, sunny days for late August. This should be a slow process, but for the second half of the month we are forecasting a greater likelihood of some drier, sunnier weather.


Further ahead


We will examine late August and see if meteorological summer will end of a hot and dry or cool and wet note.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook


 

Gavin D
29 July 2021 20:41:26

Tuesday 3 Aug - Thursday 12 Aug


Changeable conditions continuing to dominate the first half of August, with a mixture of sunny and dry periods and showery spells for all, possibly merging to give longer spells of rain. Widespread thundery showers will give away to bands of rain from the Atlantic which may bring unsettled conditions to all parts. However the south and southeast potentially seeing drier weather and the west and northwest the wettest. There remains a chance for any showers or rain to produce thunderstorms, particularly in the far south. Temperatures are most likely cooler than average for this time of year, trending to slightly cooler than average or average through the period, with the south and southwest having the best chance of seeing average temperatures.


Friday 13 Aug - Friday 27 Aug


There is a tentative sign of more settled conditions developing with higher pressure becoming slightly more likely. This means drier conditions may become more prevalent, although there is still the risk of showers or thunderstorms at times. Temperatures likely to trend to above average, with an increasing chance of hotter spells developing as the month progresses.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 

Gavin D
30 July 2021 16:38:25

Wednesday 4 Aug - Friday 13 Aug


The unsettled, changeable conditions continue to dominate the picture for the first half of August. A mixture of sunny spells and showers, with some drier interludes, is the general pattern expected through this period for all. Some of these showery spells may merge to give slightly longer spells of rain. At first, scattered showers for most, with some thunderstorms likely to develop from these. Torrential downpours are likely in some places. Winds generally remaining breezy, with temperatures expected to be near to average, perhaps slightly above average in northern areas. Through the remainder of this period, it will likely turn settled, though a few showers cannot be ruled out, especially in southeastern areas. Drier weather than recently, with sunny spells for most through to mid-August, with temperatures trending above average.


Friday 13 Aug - Friday 27 Aug


There is a tentative sign of more settled conditions developing with higher pressure becoming slightly more likely. This means drier conditions may become more prevalent, although there is still the risk of showers or thunderstorms at times. Temperatures likely to trend to above average, with an increasing chance of hotter spells developing as the month progresses.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 

Rob K
30 July 2021 16:46:47
Looks like an improvement in the first half of that over yesterday's update!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gavin D
31 July 2021 13:59:49

Thursday 5 Aug - Saturday 14 Aug


The unsettled, changeable conditions continue to dominate the picture for the first half of August. A mixture of sunny spells and showers, with some drier interludes, is the general pattern expected at the start of August for all. Some of these showery spells may merge to give slightly longer spells of rain. At first, scattered showers for most, with some thunderstorms likely to develop from these. Torrential downpours are likely in some places. Winds generally remaining breezy, with temperatures expected to be near to average, perhaps slightly above average in northern areas. Towards the middle of the month, it will likely turn more settled, though a few showers cannot be ruled out, especially in southeastern areas. Becoming drier than recently, with sunny spells for most temperatures trending above average.


Saturday 14 Aug - Saturday 28 Aug


Whilst there are current signals of a drier and warmer than average period from the middle of August, occasional spells of more unsettled weather, primarily in the northwest, remains possible. Accompanying this is a low risk of short-lived thundery spells, these mainly in southeastern parts. Confidence through this period remains low at present. Most should see dry and fine weather, however. Above average temperatures continue to be indicated through the remainder of August, with possibly even very warm conditions at times in southern areas.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 

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