doctormog
07 January 2024 14:49:31
Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

The met office have dropped the potential for significant snow wording today, instead there is now an increased chance of more unsettled conditions spreading from the west as we go through the next couple of weeks



If you want to be pedantic they’re also dropped any mention if rain at that point too. 😉
doctormog
07 January 2024 15:34:26
The longer range update is interesting too:

Monday 22 Jan - Monday 5 Feb

Through this period, there is an increased chance compared to normal of cold conditions along with the associated impacts from low temperatures, ice and snow. Frontal systems will probably move in from the west or southwest at times, bringing periods of rain or snow. Some drier, more settled interludes are also likely.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Sun 7 Jan 2024
Whiteout
07 January 2024 15:50:32
Originally Posted by: doctormog 

The longer range update is interesting too:

Monday 22 Jan - Monday 5 Feb

Through this period, there is an increased chance compared to normal of cold conditions along with the associated impacts from low temperatures, ice and snow. Frontal systems will probably move in from the west or southwest at times, bringing periods of rain or snow. Some drier, more settled interludes are also likely.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Sun 7 Jan 2024



Wow 😻
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl

Winter 22/23:

Snow falling days - 3
Snow lying days - 3
Whiteout
08 January 2024 10:07:56
Warning for ice extended:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?id=48f8eea1-8820-4374-bb04-401360e49e69&date=2024-01-08 
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl

Winter 22/23:

Snow falling days - 3
Snow lying days - 3
Whiteout
08 January 2024 12:38:33
Latest blog from the Met, a great read, in summary, lot's of global drivers our favour - what could possibly go wrong.....

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/ 
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl

Winter 22/23:

Snow falling days - 3
Snow lying days - 3
Gandalf The White
08 January 2024 12:45:41
Originally Posted by: Whiteout 

Latest blog from the Met, a great read, in summary, lot's of global drivers our favour - what could possibly go wrong.....

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/ 



Interesting read, confirming the drivers that we knew were in play.

In passing, the ECM 10hPa ensemble wind forecast yesterday shows another sharp slowdown early next week; probably not quite a reversal - although a few members do drop into negative territory.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gavin D
08 January 2024 19:31:41
BBC weather for the week ahead

Next week
  • Cold northerly winds
  • Snow showers
  • Risk of some more widespread snow
  • Some disruption possible

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/67912651 
Ally Pally Snowman
08 January 2024 19:56:26
Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

BBC weather for the week ahead

Next week

  • Cold northerly winds
  • Snow showers
  • Risk of some more widespread snow
  • Some disruption possible

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/67912651 



Fantastic update from the Beeb . About as good as we could have hoped for.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Whiteout
09 January 2024 13:08:48
Deep dive out, dare I look......😂

Summary - rest of the winter looks to have more chance than normal of colder spells, shorter term - battleground somewhere over the UK late next week, could be repeated battlegrounds as LP's move up from the SW...
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl

Winter 22/23:

Snow falling days - 3
Snow lying days - 3
Whiteout
09 January 2024 13:28:59
These should clam any nerves:

14 - 23rd:

Cloud, with patchy light rain clearing central and southern areas initially. Thereafter, turning colder from the North, with brisk northerly winds likely developing widely across of the UK, bringing a risk of snow showers, most frequent across the north. Temperatures remaining cold, and a marked wind chill especially in the north. There is risk of unsettled weather pushing in from the south through this period, which could lead to a band of snow and sleet where it meets the colder air across the country. Confidence is low with regards the timing of the arrival of any such disturbance, but there is an increasing risk of something potentially disruptive at some point in this period. Widespread frosts continue to be a feature by night, with a risk of ice in places.

24 - 7th

Through this period, the greatest likelihood is that high pressure will remain the more dominant influence on the weather, most likely centred somewhere to the northwest of the UK, with winds from the north or north-east perhaps more frequent than usual, with generally reduced amounts of precipitation. There is an increased chance, compared to normal of cold conditions along with the associated impacts from low temperatures. Even within a predominantly more settled pattern there is a still a chance that frontal systems could move in from the west or southwest at times, which while they would likely bring an interlude of slightly milder, more unsettled weather, for a time, this would also introduce a risk of snow and ice where it meets the colder air in place across the UK.
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl

Winter 22/23:

Snow falling days - 3
Snow lying days - 3
Gavin D
09 January 2024 17:27:32
BBC TV forecasts now showing the snow for next week
IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page
 
Ally Pally Snowman
09 January 2024 18:07:39
Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

BBC TV forecasts now showing the snow for next week

 



Literally the M4 lol
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
tierradelfuego
09 January 2024 18:31:14
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Literally the M4 lol



Does 5 miles south of the M4 but at 135m ASL count do you reckon?? 😁
Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS
Rainfall collector separated at ground level
Anemometer separated above roof level
WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Weather)
Gavin D
10 January 2024 10:57:49
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Colder next week. Milder in a fortnight

Wednesday 10 January to – Sunday 14 January
Temporarily becoming less cold

Monday 15 January to – Sunday 21 January
Unsettled and colder than normal

Monday 22 January to – Sunday 4 February
Possibly milder and wetter for a while

Further ahead

The next forecast update will take as further into February but we will also need to see if models are consistent on this expectation from next week onwards of a cold then milder then cold again sequence.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
Whiteout
10 January 2024 14:56:15
MetO holding firm:

15-24th Jan

Often cloudy across clearing central and southern areas at first. Thereafter, turning colder from the North, with brisk northerly winds likely developing widely across of the UK, bringing a risk of snow showers, most frequent across the north. Temperatures remaining cold, and a marked wind chill especially in the north. There is risk of unsettled weather pushing in from the south through this period, which could lead to a band of snow and sleet where it meets the colder air across the country. Confidence is low with regards the timing of the arrival of any such disturbance, but there is an increasing risk of something potentially disruptive at some point in this period. Widespread frosts continue to be a feature by night, with a risk of ice in places.

No mention of rain or mild 😍
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl

Winter 22/23:

Snow falling days - 3
Snow lying days - 3
Whiteout
10 January 2024 15:41:42
Great 10 day trend, chances of heavy snow not just limited to Wednesday, could be repeated fronts hitting the cold air 😍

And on the subject of Wed, anywhere up to N England at risk, but most likely M4 north into Midlands...



 
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl

Winter 22/23:

Snow falling days - 3
Snow lying days - 3
Retron
10 January 2024 17:41:20
There's a technical term from the Met Office that you don't hear very often... "Serious dumps in places", says Alex Deakin! (It's at 3:55).

TWEET. Members enable at bottom of page

Leysdown, north Kent
ballamar
10 January 2024 18:13:34
Originally Posted by: Retron 

There's a technical term from the Met Office that you don't hear very often... "Serious dumps in places", says Alex Deakin! (It's at 3:55).

TWEET. Members enable at bottom of page



Certainly is an interesting video that ! 
fullybhoy
10 January 2024 18:29:47
A local Ayrshire weather page on Facebook I follow has posted this……..i assume this is the fabled Steve Murr that used to post on here?           



Below are some thoughts from meteorologist Steve Mirr on developments next week over the UK.

Good Evening - (Steve Mirr, meteorologist)

I remember Feb 1996 When John Kettley said the weather is going off the rails this week - A few days later a weather front ground to a halt over the UK & stopped short of Kent by about 20 miles - Original forecast was to stall out over London !

Anyway the weather looks to go off the rails next week, it 'could' be the signature week of Winter ... Confidence HIGH.

> The details arent quite nailed down but starting Sunday we enter the next Cold spell with eyes looking north.

> Cold to come in 2 polar waves - Sun - Tues & then a second push South Weds onwards.

> Scotland & Northern England / borders in particular will be under the spotlight firstly, in my opinion you are staring down the barrell of a 5-7 days at least of sub zero maxima & severe frosts as well as snowfall. - Ponds & rivers to freeze -- In all honesty its looking really bad cold wise.
Pic 1 shows GFS modelling for end of next week at the height of phase 2 of the polar air & if theres a break in the cloud & Shelter from the wind a -20C could be on the cards for the usual culprits like Aviemore etc.

I cant emphasise enough how cold it could get as the week progresses.&

For the 'middle' & the south of England & Ireland much the same, Cold reinforced from the North with perhaps a temporary less cold day tues with more westerly winds as low pressure tracks ESE across.

> Threat of deep snow, we have seen the models allowing the atlantic to push into the Cold air middle of next week - Indeed pic 2 shows the GFS 12z today with such a scenario 

However im not convinced of this as most of the afternoon runs have now oushed that theead south towards France - that dowsnt mean to say the threat has gone, its just reduced.

Also the second polar push introduces further instability again & showery snow almost anywhere. The SW being lowest risk - Scotland & the general 'North' highest at risk.

For snow fans - a highly anticipated spell of weather arriving that could if things fall nicely be the snowiest since 2018 BFTE - just in slightly different areas.

Watch outs again
- Severe frosts
- Some sub zero days even for england as the week progresses......

 
Aldo
Glasgow 165m/asl
 
Gavin D
10 January 2024 18:49:58
BBC weather for the week ahead

Next week
  • Staying cold
  • Snow showers
  • Risk of some more widespread snow?


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/67933941 
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