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Gavin D
09 January 2024 17:27:32
BBC TV forecasts now showing the snow for next week
UserPostedImage 
Ally Pally Snowman
09 January 2024 18:07:39

BBC TV forecasts now showing the snow for next week
UserPostedImage 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



Literally the M4 lol
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
tierradelfuego
09 January 2024 18:31:14

Literally the M4 lol

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Does 5 miles south of the M4 but at 135m ASL count do you reckon?? 😁
Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS
Rainfall collector separated at ground level
Anemometer separated above roof level
WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Weather)
Gavin D
10 January 2024 10:57:49
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Colder next week. Milder in a fortnight

Wednesday 10 January to – Sunday 14 January
Temporarily becoming less cold

Monday 15 January to – Sunday 21 January
Unsettled and colder than normal

Monday 22 January to – Sunday 4 February
Possibly milder and wetter for a while

Further ahead

The next forecast update will take as further into February but we will also need to see if models are consistent on this expectation from next week onwards of a cold then milder then cold again sequence.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
Whiteout
10 January 2024 14:56:15
MetO holding firm:

15-24th Jan

Often cloudy across clearing central and southern areas at first. Thereafter, turning colder from the North, with brisk northerly winds likely developing widely across of the UK, bringing a risk of snow showers, most frequent across the north. Temperatures remaining cold, and a marked wind chill especially in the north. There is risk of unsettled weather pushing in from the south through this period, which could lead to a band of snow and sleet where it meets the colder air across the country. Confidence is low with regards the timing of the arrival of any such disturbance, but there is an increasing risk of something potentially disruptive at some point in this period. Widespread frosts continue to be a feature by night, with a risk of ice in places.

No mention of rain or mild 😍
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Whiteout
10 January 2024 15:41:42
Great 10 day trend, chances of heavy snow not just limited to Wednesday, could be repeated fronts hitting the cold air 😍

And on the subject of Wed, anywhere up to N England at risk, but most likely M4 north into Midlands...



 
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Retron
10 January 2024 17:41:20
There's a technical term from the Met Office that you don't hear very often... "Serious dumps in places", says Alex Deakin! (It's at 3:55).


Leysdown, north Kent
ballamar
10 January 2024 18:13:34

There's a technical term from the Met Office that you don't hear very often... "Serious dumps in places", says Alex Deakin! (It's at 3:55).

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Certainly is an interesting video that ! 
fullybhoy
10 January 2024 18:29:47
A local Ayrshire weather page on Facebook I follow has posted this……..i assume this is the fabled Steve Murr that used to post on here?           



Below are some thoughts from meteorologist Steve Mirr on developments next week over the UK.

Good Evening - (Steve Mirr, meteorologist)

I remember Feb 1996 When John Kettley said the weather is going off the rails this week - A few days later a weather front ground to a halt over the UK & stopped short of Kent by about 20 miles - Original forecast was to stall out over London !

Anyway the weather looks to go off the rails next week, it 'could' be the signature week of Winter ... Confidence HIGH.

> The details arent quite nailed down but starting Sunday we enter the next Cold spell with eyes looking north.

> Cold to come in 2 polar waves - Sun - Tues & then a second push South Weds onwards.

> Scotland & Northern England / borders in particular will be under the spotlight firstly, in my opinion you are staring down the barrell of a 5-7 days at least of sub zero maxima & severe frosts as well as snowfall. - Ponds & rivers to freeze -- In all honesty its looking really bad cold wise.
Pic 1 shows GFS modelling for end of next week at the height of phase 2 of the polar air & if theres a break in the cloud & Shelter from the wind a -20C could be on the cards for the usual culprits like Aviemore etc.

I cant emphasise enough how cold it could get as the week progresses.&

For the 'middle' & the south of England & Ireland much the same, Cold reinforced from the North with perhaps a temporary less cold day tues with more westerly winds as low pressure tracks ESE across.

> Threat of deep snow, we have seen the models allowing the atlantic to push into the Cold air middle of next week - Indeed pic 2 shows the GFS 12z today with such a scenario 

However im not convinced of this as most of the afternoon runs have now oushed that theead south towards France - that dowsnt mean to say the threat has gone, its just reduced.

Also the second polar push introduces further instability again & showery snow almost anywhere. The SW being lowest risk - Scotland & the general 'North' highest at risk.

For snow fans - a highly anticipated spell of weather arriving that could if things fall nicely be the snowiest since 2018 BFTE - just in slightly different areas.

Watch outs again
- Severe frosts
- Some sub zero days even for england as the week progresses......

 
Aldo
Glasgow 165m/asl
 
Gavin D
10 January 2024 18:49:58
BBC weather for the week ahead

Next week
  • Staying cold
  • Snow showers
  • Risk of some more widespread snow?


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/67933941 
UncleAlbert
11 January 2024 14:56:11
Happy 70th birthday, BBC TV weather broadcasts!  I see that Michael Fish was spared another 1987 rerun on the lunch time coverage today!
The Beast from the East
11 January 2024 15:55:42


This will probably be amended soon. the 12zs likely to keep the low well away from the mainland
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
warrenb
11 January 2024 16:41:07

This will probably be amended soon. the 12zs likely to keep the low well away from the mainland

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


that lasted well
moomin75
11 January 2024 18:35:25

that lasted well

Originally Posted by: warrenb 



BBC forecast with Chris Fawkes showed snow just skimming the extreme south coast. Barely making it across the water to Southampton, so clearly they are favouring it all missing us (at this stage).
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
moomin75
11 January 2024 18:36:38

This will probably be amended soon. the 12zs likely to keep the low well away from the mainland

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Yep, the 6.30pm forecast with Chris Fawkes shows it barely reaching as far north as Southampton. 
I guess they are favouring it going into France as per the ECM.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
bledur
11 January 2024 18:45:17

Yep, the 6.30pm forecast with Chris Fawkes shows it barely reaching as far north as Southampton. 
I guess they are favouring it going into France as per the ECM.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


 What a Bloomin cheek? The French stealing our snow, going to have to hand out the Valium.🤣
Gavin D
11 January 2024 19:32:12
BBC weather for the week ahead

Next week
  • Staying cold
  • Snow showers
  • Possible spell of snow in the south


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/67951787 
moomin75
11 January 2024 19:57:42

BBC weather for the week ahead

Next week

  • Staying cold
  • Snow showers
  • Possible spell of snow in the south


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/67951787 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


"Grazing the south as the low moves through the channel and France."

And "just a chance" at that.

This chase has gone I'm afraid.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
11 January 2024 20:22:55

"Grazing the south as the low moves through the channel and France."

And "just a chance" at that.

This chase has gone I'm afraid.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



They are just using ecm Op data. Its a waste of time when things are so fluid. Anything could happen next week. 

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
dagspot
11 January 2024 22:00:39
Stav downgrading ‘disruptive snow’ to ‘chance of sleet’   what an anti climax.   I think we all know which will pan out.  Need to look to NW now for some action
Neilston 600ft ASL
doctormog
12 January 2024 06:32:54

Stav downgrading ‘disruptive snow’ to ‘chance of sleet’   what an anti climax.   I think we all know which will pan out.  Need to look to NW now for some action

Originally Posted by: dagspot 



Given your location I would have thought you may be happy with the potential for coming week, especially Monday/Tuesday?
Whiteout
12 January 2024 10:41:29
First warnings out for N Scotland and NI 😀:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2024-01-15 
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Retron
12 January 2024 10:43:16

First warnings out for N Scotland and NI 😀:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2024-01-15 

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 


...and it's interesting to see that while the NI one is on the yellow track, the Scottish one is on the amber track - i.e. a good chance of a warning upgrade nearer the time!
Leysdown, north Kent
Whiteout
12 January 2024 12:23:12
Well the Met certainly haven't dropped the midweek snow idea.

Looking good for Scotland and NI though for sure:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2024/very-cold-week 
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl

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