theweatheroutlook

dagspot
20 January 2023 17:59:39
Ben Rich  ‘could turn colder from the north towards end of next week’ 
Neilston 600ft ASL
MStewart
21 January 2023 09:37:40
This week’s met office weather snap had a good section regarding polar vortex and the current situation.

Alex Deakin did a very good job, in my opinion, and I learnt something. Sharing here for everyone else that might want a link. 

https://youtu.be/TF06lM1mic0 
 
Mark
Twickenham
12m ASL
dagspot
21 January 2023 13:28:48
What is this ‘snow bomb’ they talk of?
I better get my candles, sledge and shovels
2” per hour is very specific 

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scotland-faces-two-inches-snow-29013525.amp 
Neilston 600ft ASL
doctormog
21 January 2023 14:03:32
Originally Posted by: dagspot 

What is this ‘snow bomb’ they talk of?
I better get my candles, sledge and shovels
2” per hour is very specific 

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scotland-faces-two-inches-snow-29013525.amp 



They were using a chart at +342 hr from yesterday’s GFS 00z op run and basing a news story on it. Talk about desperation!
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gavin D
21 January 2023 15:25:59
BBC Monthly Outlook

Drier late January. Turning wetter in February

Saturday 21 January to – Sunday 29 January
Turning milder and wetter. Drier, chiller later

Monday 30 January to – Sunday 5 February
A lot of dry weather but wetter later

Monday 6 February to – Sunday 19 February
Unsettled. Colder risks late month

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
22 January 2023 08:48:06
A bit out of date I know but there is still lying snow in shaded parts from the 'surprise' snowfall of a few days ago.
Because snow of any kind is rare in these parts it was notable even if minimal in quantity. It was heavy for a time too (twenty minutes).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-64318059 
It's rare to see snow on Golden Cap as well. 
So that's two (minimal depth) snowfalls this winter but what is surprising is how long each one hung around. I think there must have been more frosts this winter too than for many winters past. Certainly made the daffs hold back  as they are not even in bud yet..
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
tallyho_83
25 January 2023 01:47:38
Very informative forecast by Aiden McGiven of Met Office:

If you want to know more about the Stratospheric developments he covers this at 24:45 so skip until then.

 


The effects of the Stratospheric warming NOT Sudden Stratospheric warming but significant warming and decrease in speeds of zonal winds at 10hpa over the N. Pole won't have an impact on our weather until at least middle of February, and that's even if it does!?  
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
26 January 2023 00:34:36
Met Office 10 day trend by Aiden McGiven! Gosh +16c in Aberdeen yet -9c in Benson, Oxfordshire?
 
 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Saint Snow
26 January 2023 15:31:33
Facinating little article on Fen Skating, about a photographer who set out to find, photograph and document the activity.

I love quirky things like this, that date back centuries.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-64399819 

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
26 January 2023 15:57:40
One for Brian.
https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/23277054.new-beast-east-bring-uk-7-inches-snow/#comments-anchor 
Brian Gaze from The Weather Outlook told the Express: "Computer models are suggesting that a weakening of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV) in the coming weeks could lead to an increasing chance of cold weather during February.

FWIW last night, the residue patches of snow melted in my back garden from the recent cold spell. 
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
dagspot
27 January 2023 18:33:16
Ben Rich suggesting possibility of ‘stormy’ weather next week in North…
Neilston 600ft ASL
Gavin D
29 January 2023 11:39:19
BBC Monthly Outlook

Changeable, mostly mild but a few chillier periods

Saturday 28 January to – Sunday 5 February
Occasional rain but drier in the south

Monday 6 February to – Sunday 12 February
Unsettled and mild

Monday 13 February to – Sunday 26 February
Drier and chillier for a time but unsettled later

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
tallyho_83
31 January 2023 20:03:16
Met Office update: Note now a "Small chance of easterly winds"

Sunday 5 Feb - Tuesday 14 Feb
Sunday is likely to be a widely fine day, with long sunny spells across all areas, with residual showers in the far north clearing through the morning, and with cloud and light rain in the south also clearing. Cloudier conditions may begin to develop in the far west later. Strong winds in the north at first but easing through the day. Further into the period the conditions are expected to remain settled for many at first, with the most of any wet weather likely in the far northwest. Temperatures most likely around average for most. Later, the most likely scenario is for wetter, windier and milder weather to move in from the west, however there is a small chance of easterly winds developing bringing colder weather and some snow showers.
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


dagspot
31 January 2023 21:58:39
Stav ‘signs of it turning colder from weekend’   ‘Much colder air from the east’
Neilston 600ft ASL
doctormog
31 January 2023 22:04:23
Originally Posted by: dagspot 

Stav ‘signs of it turning colder from weekend’   ‘Much colder air from the east’



With “temperatures closer to the seasonal normal” and “a return to overnight frosts” too. Exciting times! 😂
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gavin D
01 February 2023 12:46:34
BBC Monthly Outlook

Chilly and drier next week, then changeable

Wednesday 1 February to – Sunday 5 February
Changeable and mild, then a drier, colder weekend

Monday 6 February to – Sunday 12 February
Wet at times in the north, drier for the south

Monday 13 February to – Sunday 26 February
Wet and windy at times, mainly north and west

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
Gavin D
01 February 2023 17:08:59
Met Office 10 Day Trend

85% chance
  • Colder and drier in the south
  • Milder with some rain in the north
  • Westerlies gradually sink south

15% chance
  • Very cold, especially in south and east
  • Snow in places



dagspot
01 February 2023 22:00:09
and Ben Rich going for the backtrack. Cold easterly now the ‘extreme option, only on the GFS model’ 🙄
Neilston 600ft ASL
roadrunnerajn
02 February 2023 15:47:00
The latest met office update for next week now says that the small chance of it turning colder in the south is diminishing.
Helston Cornwall 62m asl. Land of the eternal spring (13c and overcast mizzle)
tallyho_83
02 February 2023 19:04:05
Originally Posted by: roadrunnerajn 

The latest met office update for next week now says that the small chance of it turning colder in the south is diminishing.



I saw that - I do wonder if it;s due to the MJO in phase 3.5 which has contributed to the extreme cold in NE America/Canada? that is helping to fuel up the jet! - usual story!

I also wonder if the Met Office have based their forecasts on the GFS model output? just interesting how the models back off and then suddenly they come up with "small chance of it turning colder in the south diminishing!" - having just written that in yesterdays update with snow showers?
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


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