Retron
23 December 2023 04:23:35
Originally Posted by: dagspot 

they cant even get 7 days head correct never mind 42.


That misses the point, though.

The 42-day charts aren't weather forecasts in the sense of "in five Thursdays time, at 12 noon, it'll be 3C and raining in London".

Instead, they're more along the lines of "in five Thursdays time, the stratospheric vortex is 80% likely to be much weaker than normal, and heights are 80% likely to be much higher than normal to the north".

You can't then take that to give a specific surface forecast, nor would you.

 
Leysdown, north Kent
Gavin D
23 December 2023 16:46:39
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Turning chillier at times after Christmas

Saturday 23 December to – Sunday 31 December
Unsettled and becoming colder

Monday 1 January to – Sunday 7 January
Chilly and changeable

Monday 8 January to – Sunday 21 January
Seasonably chilly or a bit colder

Further ahead
Will the long range models start to show better agreement and allow us to attach a little more confidence to the January forecast

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
The Beast from the East
24 December 2023 10:52:26
BBC4 repeating the excellent documentary series "Killer Storms and Cruel Winters" presented by Prof Lucie Green. Worth watching if you havent seen it. 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gavin D
27 December 2023 13:01:18
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
A colder trend expected but how cold is uncertain

Wednesday 27 December to – Sunday 31 December
Wet and windy then turning chillier

Monday 1 January to – Sunday 7 January
Wet and windy at times. Mostly milder

Monday 8 January to – Sunday 21 January
Most likely to be rather cold

Further ahead
New long range models will take us into late January for the next update, and we will see if there are further signs of colder conditions setting in.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
Gavin D
28 December 2023 16:56:05
'Sudden stratospheric warming' forecast to hit northern Europe in January - but experts unsure where it will strike

https://news.sky.com/story/sudden-stratospheric-warming-forecast-to-hit-northern-europe-in-january-but-experts-unsure-where-it-will-strike-13038622 
warrenb
28 December 2023 17:09:55
Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

'Sudden stratospheric warming' forecast to hit northern Europe in January - but experts unsure where it will strike

https://news.sky.com/story/sudden-stratospheric-warming-forecast-to-hit-northern-europe-in-january-but-experts-unsure-where-it-will-strike-13038622 


I've got an idea it might be in the stratosphere.
David M Porter
28 December 2023 17:23:56
Originally Posted by: warrenb 

I've got an idea it might be in the stratosphere.



😁
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
The Beast from the East
29 December 2023 13:28:20
TWEET. Members enable at bottom of page

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gavin D
Whiteout
29 December 2023 15:07:09
Met still bullish:

Wednesday 3 Jan - Friday 12 Jan
This period will start in an unsettled fashion, with showers in many places, and these will be heavy at times, with temperatures around normal for early January. During the rest of the period there will be a gradual trend towards more settled and somewhat colder conditions with some frosty nights (perhaps becoming widespread and severe in time). Occasional unsettled spells are still possible, but these generally much more regionalised, and infrequent than conditions of late. As temperatures fall, the chance of any precipitation falling as sleet and snow increases, particularly over high ground and especially over northern parts of the UK, but not exclusively so by any means. As well as frost and ice by night, some freezing fog is likely to develop as well.

I for one think this has legs 😎
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl

Winter 22/23:

Snow falling days - 3
Snow lying days - 3
David M Porter
29 December 2023 15:35:01
Originally Posted by: Whiteout 

Met still bullish:

Wednesday 3 Jan - Friday 12 Jan
This period will start in an unsettled fashion, with showers in many places, and these will be heavy at times, with temperatures around normal for early January. During the rest of the period there will be a gradual trend towards more settled and somewhat colder conditions with some frosty nights (perhaps becoming widespread and severe in time). Occasional unsettled spells are still possible, but these generally much more regionalised, and infrequent than conditions of late. As temperatures fall, the chance of any precipitation falling as sleet and snow increases, particularly over high ground and especially over northern parts of the UK, but not exclusively so by any means. As well as frost and ice by night, some freezing fog is likely to develop as well.

I for one think this has legs 😎



The MetO must think it has legs too, as they have been fairly consistent about this in their updates this week.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gavin D
30 December 2023 10:36:29
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
A pattern change is coming. Turning colder

Saturday 30 December to – Sunday 7 January
Unsettled and becoming chillier

Monday 8 January to – Sunday 14 January
Colder than average. Some wintry showers

Monday 15 January to – Sunday 28 January
Possibly less cold for a while

Further ahead

Confidence is low for the second half of January. There should be a continuation of a similar pattern for a while, with those cold north-easterly flows lingering, although low pressure systems could start edging farther north. This would bring more precipitation into at least the southern UK and perhaps further north, which could be snow in places. Locations will depend on exactly how far north any systems come.

Later in the month, it is possible that we will see a change in the pattern, with low pressure becoming more dominant. In that case it could become less cold, with temperatures rising closer to the seasonal average overall, and possibly above, but there would still be chances of snow on the northern side of these low pressure systems. However, there is a polar vortex disruption going on which can change patterns at the surface two to four weeks later, and that might just reinforce the cold possibilities.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
Retron
31 December 2023 05:38:36
I do wonder sometimes who writes the forecasts on the MetO website, as they're incredibly sloppy at times. It may sound pedantic, but the Met Office have precise definitions for temperatures - it's one thing for a random guy on the street to misuse terms, but the Met Office should uphold the standards.

For reference, my nearest official station (Faversham), has a mean high of 7.9 in January and a mean low of 2.3. It will be colder further inland.

Today's SE forecast is typical:

Today:
Cool. Maximum temperature 9 °C.


("Cool" should only be used in summer, and it's for temperatures 4 to 5C below average. 9C is above average, so isn't cool - at best, it's normal.)

Tonight:
Cold. Minimum temperature 4 °C.


(4C isn't "cold", it's above average. Again, a description of "normal" would be the correct terminology. "Cold" in winter means 4-5C below average.)

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:
Temperatures around normal.


(The raw forecast highs for Faversham for Tuesday to Thursday are 12, 10, 10. That's not "around normal", that's "very mild" becoming "mild")

Incidentally the definitions are quite hard to track down these days (they used to be on the MetO website 10-15 years ago), but you can find them elsewhere, e.g. here . I suspect the fact they're hidden away these days means the youngsters joining the service aren't aware of them, which is a shame.

For reference, in winter (which is actually mid-November to mid-March in terms of the original Met Office style guide):

6C or more above: Exceptionally Mild
4-5C above: Very Mild
2-3C above: Mild
1C below to 1C above: Normal
2-3C below: Rather Cold
4-5C below: Cold
6C or more below: Very Cold
Leysdown, north Kent
Jiries
31 December 2023 08:26:53
That true Darren that why I stop reading those for a very l long time now and often very wrong as well.  All forecasting method here are far more worst than 3rd world country forecasting ways.  
dagspot
31 December 2023 13:20:04
Rizzini on BBC showing high pressure becoming ‘firmly established’ by next weekend with UK ‘being on colder side’ with North/Easterly wind, overnight frosts and some wintriness.  Sounds quite seasonal. Bet it bears no resemblance in 5 days time 
Neilston 600ft ASL
tallyho_83
31 December 2023 13:56:10
Originally Posted by: Retron 

I do wonder sometimes who writes the forecasts on the MetO website, as they're incredibly sloppy at times. It may sound pedantic, but the Met Office have precise definitions for temperatures - it's one thing for a random guy on the street to misuse terms, but the Met Office should uphold the standards.

For reference, my nearest official station (Faversham), has a mean high of 7.9 in January and a mean low of 2.3. It will be colder further inland.

Today's SE forecast is typical:

Today:
Cool. Maximum temperature 9 °C.


("Cool" should only be used in summer, and it's for temperatures 4 to 5C below average. 9C is above average, so isn't cool - at best, it's normal.)

Tonight:
Cold. Minimum temperature 4 °C.


(4C isn't "cold", it's above average. Again, a description of "normal" would be the correct terminology. "Cold" in winter means 4-5C below average.)

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:
Temperatures around normal.


(The raw forecast highs for Faversham for Tuesday to Thursday are 12, 10, 10. That's not "around normal", that's "very mild" becoming "mild")

Incidentally the definitions are quite hard to track down these days (they used to be on the MetO website 10-15 years ago), but you can find them elsewhere, e.g. here . I suspect the fact they're hidden away these days means the youngsters joining the service aren't aware of them, which is a shame.

For reference, in winter (which is actually mid-November to mid-March in terms of the original Met Office style guide):

6C or more above: Exceptionally Mild
4-5C above: Very Mild
2-3C above: Mild
1C below to 1C above: Normal
2-3C below: Rather Cold
4-5C below: Cold
6C or more below: Very Cold



I agree feeling cold and they forecast a temp of +9c is very misleading - I notice the BBC do this as well esp Darren Bett, "Feeling cold" and the forecast would be for a mild temperature of +10c which is much milder than average. strange isn't it?!
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
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Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
31 December 2023 20:02:26
Originally Posted by: dagspot 

Rizzini on BBC showing high pressure becoming ‘firmly established’ by next weekend with UK ‘being on colder side’ with North/Easterly wind, overnight frosts and some wintriness.  Sounds quite seasonal. Bet it bears no resemblance in 5 days time 



Repeated by Louise Lear in Countryfile forecast
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
dagspot
01 January 2024 14:01:31
still a theme of ‘cool’ high pressure by weekend. Nothing to suggest deep cold or significant longevity. Hints of ‘wintriness’ perhaps hedging bets (or should that be Betts) 
Happy New Year TWOers! 😀
Neilston 600ft ASL
Gandalf The White
01 January 2024 20:00:51
Darren Bett on BBC News24 just said ‘high pressure looks like being in control for the rest of the month’, after highlighting the change to much colder weather by the weekend, with wintry showers.  Unusual to say anything about the synoptics 3 weeks ahead.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


moomin75
01 January 2024 21:04:35
For those that are interested or for those old enough to reminisce, Channel 5 programme just starting, brand new, about the snow of 1947.
Should be a great watch.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
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