dagspot
02 January 2024 22:01:52
well the 2157 BBC ‘weather for the week’ was a disappointment- as a repeat from earlier today 😶  Albeit content still good for period of cold
Neilston 600ft ASL
Gavin D
03 January 2024 10:59:29
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
A colder spell expected but longevity is uncertain

Wednesday 3 January to – Sunday 7 January
Starting unsettled but turning drier and colder

Monday 8 January to – Sunday 14 January
Colder than average. Less settled later

Monday 15 January to – Sunday 28 January
Cold for a while longer. Possibly milder later

Further ahead

When the next update rolls around, we will see if models have any better agreement on the evolution of weather patterns throughout mid-January. Will we still be forecasting colder-than-average weather, and how soon might it turn milder?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
04 January 2024 14:52:24
The Accuweather forecast for Chichester from Sun 14th to the end of the month and for at least the first few days of Feb shows a max of 5C every day (bar two days, when it's 6C, wow!) and a min of 0C every day (well a bit more variation in this, sometimes it gets as high as +1 and sometimes as low as -1C) .

Boring!
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
doctormog
04 January 2024 15:00:17
Originally Posted by: DEW 

The Accuweather forecast for Chichester from Sun 14th to the end of the month and for at least the first few days of Feb shows a max of 5C every day (bar two days, when it's 6C, wow!) and a min of 0C every day (well a bit more variation in this, sometimes it gets as high as +1 and sometimes as low as -1C) .

Boring!



I think that says more about the AccuWeather forecasts than the likely weather. Our outlook here is extremely similar to yours on that site.
Gavin D
05 January 2024 11:17:23
TWEET. Members enable at bottom of page
doctormog
05 January 2024 11:19:41
Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

TWEET. Members enable at bottom of page



That ties in well with the output. Beyond next week it may get very interesting. Or it may not. 😁
Whiteout
05 January 2024 12:11:45
This is a better summary for me:

Jason Kelly is a Met Office Chief Forecaster. He said: “The transition to lower temperatures will be noticeable over the weekend. It will become rather cold next week with lower-than-average temperatures across much of the UK, accentuated by brisk easterly winds in the south. 

I still think they are underplaying how cold it will feel in that wind though....
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl

Winter 22/23:

Snow falling days - 3
Snow lying days - 3
Whiteout
05 January 2024 14:48:52
Snow mentioned in the first Met update, they expect the High to build west  - good start 😀

High pressure will remain in charge through the first part of this period, whilst sitting to the north or northwest of the UK. This means a fair amount of dry weather for the majority of the country, with variable cloud and some sunny spells. Still the chance of a few showers, perhaps wintry at first, feeding into some eastern coasts. Still on the cold side too, though perhaps less so than the preceding couple of days, with reduced wind chill in the south. Into the following week, as the high is forecast to build further to the west, there is an increasing likelihood of northerly winds developing, introducing colder air once more. With this comes the risk of snow showers, especially around windward coasts along with overnight frost and ice.
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl

Winter 22/23:

Snow falling days - 3
Snow lying days - 3
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
05 January 2024 15:39:13
The next paragraph is also interesting ....

Saturday 20 Jan - Saturday 3 Feb

Through this period, compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder conditions along with the associated impacts from low temperatures, ice and snow. Whilst colder weather is more likely to dominate, there is also the possibility of frontal systems at least encroaching from the west or southwest, bringing the potential for more widespread snow to parts of the UK as they butt up against cold air in place. These would also increase the likelihood of wetter conditions, at least in the south, at least compared to the preceding week or two.
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Whiteout
05 January 2024 16:00:55
Originally Posted by: GezM 

The next paragraph is also interesting ....

Saturday 20 Jan - Saturday 3 Feb

Through this period, compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder conditions along with the associated impacts from low temperatures, ice and snow. Whilst colder weather is more likely to dominate, there is also the possibility of frontal systems at least encroaching from the west or southwest, bringing the potential for more widespread snow to parts of the UK as they butt up against cold air in place. These would also increase the likelihood of wetter conditions, at least in the south, at least compared to the preceding week or two.



Absolutely, if that is the way it pans out, take that, high risk but nigh reward and all that.
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl

Winter 22/23:

Snow falling days - 3
Snow lying days - 3
Gavin D
06 January 2024 12:21:29
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Colder than average through most of January

Saturday 6 January to – Sunday 14 January
Colder than normal with fog and ice risks

Monday 15 January to – Sunday 21 January
Sharp frosts, fog and some wintry showers

Monday 22 January to – Monday 29 January
Possibly less cold for a while

Further ahead

We will see in the next update whether or not the long-range models come into better agreement, and if the overall cold theme remains most likely.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
dagspot
06 January 2024 14:00:12
6-8dc and sunny next week for England not exactly a spectacular cold spell
Neilston 600ft ASL
Gavin D
06 January 2024 15:21:13
Quite an upgrade in the wording from the met office today for mid month

Thursday 11 Jan - Saturday 20 Jan

High pressure will remain in charge at first, whilst sitting to the north or northwest of the UK. Many areas will often be dry if rather cloudy, however occasional light rain or drizzle is likely, especially on some east-facing hills. The best of any sunshine in sheltered western and perhaps southern areas and still rather chilly for most. Towards mid-month, the high will likely decline or reorientate itself to the west or northwest of the UK, potentially allowing colder air with snow showers to filter south across the UK and/or for frontal systems to approach from the southwest. The latter scenario would also bring the potential for significant snow and also perhaps some heavy rain to parts of the south. Either way a more unsettled outlook towards mid-month looks probable.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk 
Gandalf The White
06 January 2024 17:12:17
Originally Posted by: dagspot 

6-8dc and sunny next week for England not exactly a spectacular cold spell



But they always do that: give city centre maxima and overstate the numbers.  It might get towards those values later next week during the transition but not in the next 3-4 days, I doubt.  When it predicts 6-7c for London I knock off 2-3 degrees for a more typical value and another 1-2 on top for here, with some elevation.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


dagspot
06 January 2024 22:00:14
Willets BBC
just below average then turning milder with rain in the south transiently before potentially ‘another blast of even colder northerly air with wintry showers’ by next weekend.   Again bears no resemblance to what was previously programmed… 
Neilston 600ft ASL
bledur
07 January 2024 09:07:49
Originally Posted by: dagspot 

6-8dc and sunny next week for England not exactly a spectacular cold spell


 Oh dear, i shall have to put my thermal underwear away again😀
This coming week is only going to end up slightly below average temps which is what the correct interpretation of the models showed 
Next week , maybe?
Retron
07 January 2024 11:28:59
Ice warning out for inland parts of Kent, Surrey and Sussex tomorrow morning, and note the bit in bold!

Issued: 10:43 (UTC) on Sun 7 Jan 2024
A mix of sleet and snow showers will move in from the east later on Sunday night along with temperatures near zero. Given these wintry showers, and also wet surfaces after recent wet weather, some icy patches are likely on untreated surfaces. Additionally a few of the snow showers could turn quite heavy; these probably only affecting a narrow zone but a few places could see 1-3 cm, mainly over the north Downs and on grassy surfaces.
Leysdown, north Kent
doctormog
07 January 2024 14:39:50
Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Quite an upgrade in the wording from the met office today for mid month

Thursday 11 Jan - Saturday 20 Jan

High pressure will remain in charge at first, whilst sitting to the north or northwest of the UK. Many areas will often be dry if rather cloudy, however occasional light rain or drizzle is likely, especially on some east-facing hills. The best of any sunshine in sheltered western and perhaps southern areas and still rather chilly for most. Towards mid-month, the high will likely decline or reorientate itself to the west or northwest of the UK, potentially allowing colder air with snow showers to filter south across the UK and/or for frontal systems to approach from the southwest. The latter scenario would also bring the potential for significant snow and also perhaps some heavy rain to parts of the south. Either way a more unsettled outlook towards mid-month looks probable.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk 



Another change in the wording on today’s update:

Friday 12 Jan - Sunday 21 Jan

Mostly cloudy across the UK on Friday and Saturday. Some patchy light rain or drizzle is expected in places, although many areas will probably remain mainly dry. Winds will be light with temperatures likely to be a little below average. Through the rest of the weekend and into the start of the following week, it is likely to turn colder as northerly winds begin to develop across of the UK and bring a risk of snow showers, particularly across the north. There is also a smaller risk of a period of snow across some southern areas for a time. Through the rest of this period confidence is low, but there is an increased chance of more unsettled conditions spreading from the west.
Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Sun 7 Jan 2024
Gavin D
07 January 2024 14:40:53
The met office have dropped the potential for significant snow wording today, instead there is now an increased chance of more unsettled conditions spreading from the west as we go through the next couple of weeks
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