theweatheroutlook

Gavin D
04 January 2023 19:08:41
Met Office 10 day trend

Rest of January
  • Strong stratospheric polar vortex
  • Westerlies more likely




tallyho_83
05 January 2023 01:09:40
BBC Monthly Outlook:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
05 January 2023 02:20:14
Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Met Office 10 day trend

Rest of January

  • Strong stratospheric polar vortex
  • Westerlies more likely






Explained very well - no sign of an SSW but definitely a sign of a SW or Stratospheric warming as seen in recent GFS runs at 10hpa starting over Siberia and pushing into the N. Pole and this could displace the PV at the very least and thus weaken the zonal winds and help promote northern blocking as well as the constant signal for this strong Siberian high which is present and there could be an SSW later down the line also Aiden mentioned about the MJO which I don't know much about however this gives us some hope!?
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gavin D
05 January 2023 09:17:14
2022 average annual temperature tops 10c for the first time on record

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-average-annual-temperature-was-10c-or-more-for-first-time-in-2022-met-office-says-12780281 
Gavin D
06 January 2023 17:01:56
BBC Monthly Outlook

Mostly mild and unsettled until later January

Wednesday 4 January to – Sunday 8 January
Occasionally wet and windy but relatively mild

Monday 9 January to – Sunday 15 January
Unsettled and chillier, especially in the north

Monday 16 January to – Sunday 29 January
Possibly turning colder later in January

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
dagspot
06 January 2023 17:28:54
you could probably copy and paste any recent January and would be same.  Lots of eggs in one basket  - the ‘possibly colder’ will disappear in a few weeks. 
Neilston 600ft ASL
tallyho_83
06 January 2023 19:09:12
Originally Posted by: dagspot 

you could probably copy and paste any recent January and would be same.  Lots of eggs in one basket  - the ‘possibly colder’ will disappear in a few weeks. 



True - Meanwhile the temperature over Siberia is remaining colder than average - well down into the -50C's.

Verkhoyansk: 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/yunb7s4um#?date=2023-01-12 
IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gavin D
07 January 2023 11:35:25
BBC Monthly Outlook

Unsettled, then drier and chillier mid-January

Saturday 7 January to – Sunday 15 January
Periodically wet and windy

Monday 16 January to – Sunday 22 January
Unsettled for a while then a drier trend

Monday 23 January to – Sunday 5 February
Changeable and perhaps colder into February

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook  
Gavin D
08 January 2023 21:53:30
BBC weather for the week ahead
  • Often wet and windy
  • Mainly mild


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/64204954 
dagspot
09 January 2023 21:59:40
Betsy going for ‘much colder’  ‘take note of the white blobs’ out until Wed next week midlands north…
Neilston 600ft ASL
tallyho_83
12 January 2023 00:49:02
Is there no model output forum?
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Zubzero
12 January 2023 01:21:11
Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Is there no model output forum?



The outlook is so poor its broke the model output thread.
tallyho_83
12 January 2023 01:35:02
Originally Posted by: Zubzero 

The outlook is so poor its broke the model output thread.



Outlook is so dreadful I don't blame it for breaking - We have had weeks of rain drizzle, wind followed by more rain and wind etc! I guess the only good thing is that it has made up for the lack of rain last year especially throughout summer, following a drier winter and spring 2022!!

But on a serious note where is the Model Output Thread?
This is what I have up to page 50 with last post by Uncle Albert - but it's locked, wasn't there a new one which was started?
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t23426-Model-Output-thread--16th-December-08-08/page50 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


The Beast from the East
12 January 2023 02:35:16
Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Outlook is so dreadful I don't blame it for breaking - We have had weeks of rain drizzle, wind followed by more rain and wind etc! I guess the only good thing is that it has made up for the lack of rain last year especially throughout summer, following a drier winter and spring 2022!!

But on a serious note where is the Model Output Thread?
This is what I have up to page 50 with last post by Uncle Albert - but it's locked, wasn't there a new one which was started?
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t23426-Model-Output-thread--16th-December-08-08/page50 



I posted on it earlier but it has been taken down, not sure why. Some worrying wind levels possible next week down the east coast. and the potential for some wintryness
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
tallyho_83
12 January 2023 03:32:59
Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I posted on it earlier but it has been taken down, not sure why. Some worrying wind levels possible next week down the east coast. and the potential for some wintryness



Yes - I did PM Brian.
Sorry Missed your post. But lot's to talk about with a colder outlook especially early next week and possible SSW signs at least anyway!?
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


dagspot
12 January 2023 22:36:49
Fawksie mentioned possible ‘disruptive snow’ next week…
Neilston 600ft ASL
Gavin D
14 January 2023 15:42:02
BBC Monthly Outlook

A wintry start then milder. Drier later

Saturday 14 January to – Sunday 22 January
Cold and wintry. Milder late week

Sunday 29 January to – Sunday 5 February
Drier and calmer

Monday 6 February to – Sunday 19 February
Changeable. Colder risk mid-February

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
dagspot
15 January 2023 11:01:05
Matt on BBC Weather for week   ‘mild wet and windy for all by Friday’   #ColdSnip 
Neilston 600ft ASL
tallyho_83
15 January 2023 12:50:22
Originally Posted by: dagspot 

Matt on BBC Weather for week   ‘mild wet and windy for all by Friday’   #ColdSnip 



Wet and windy? that makes a change! NOT!

I notice the BBC monthly mention the MJO quite a lot - does this really have such an impact on our weather and if we do get a SSW will this be less favourable for HLB to develop?

Gavs weather vids - and not knocking Gav but never mentions about the MJO as far as I am concerned but both Aiden McGiven of Met Office and BBC monthly outlook mention it a lot and I never knew the stormy activity in the pacific can influence our weather and if so wouldn't it take time?
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


doctormog
15 January 2023 13:25:28
Originally Posted by: dagspot 

Matt on BBC Weather for week   ‘mild wet and windy for all by Friday’   #ColdSnip 



I didn’t see it, did he mention Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday at all? 😇
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
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