theweatheroutlook

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bledur
16 January 2023 18:47:32

The floods around here are notable this winter. My son went to London on Friday but the track went in a major landslip and flooding elsewhere means he's staying tonight in Southampton.
https://www.dorsetecho.co.uk/news/23253777.pictures-flooding-dorchester-charminster-stratton/ 



 

Originally Posted by: NMA 


Yes indeed the Groundwater flooding round here is as high as it gets . Quite a few roads are now impassable with a car although the idiots keep trying . The water is pouring out the ground at quite high points now which shows how high the water table is . I am glad to see it as it was awfully dry before and at least we can go into a drought with high reserves.
dagspot
16 January 2023 22:00:38
SKL BBC  ‘Warming up, High Pressure, Rain into northwest’ 
Not hugely inspiring if looking for cold
Not hugely inspiring in terms of detailed longer-term forecast… 
Neilston 600ft ASL
Crepuscular Ray
17 January 2023 11:52:28
An Amber warning now for heavy snow later today in Highland and Grampian areas as the wee 'Low' comes SSE into the North Sea and increasing the winds

A lot of this area has a decent snow cover already
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
doctormog
17 January 2023 12:24:28

An Amber warning now for heavy snow later today in Highland and Grampian areas as the wee 'Low' comes SSE into the North Sea and increasing the winds

A lot of this area has a decent snow cover already

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 



None here so far and I do wonder if it may be more wet than white here given the mixing and sea influence. We will see in a while I guess! Somewhere (in more northern or inland parts) is likely to be hit hard I would guess given the wording in the warning.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Caprikid62
17 January 2023 12:27:45

An Amber warning now for heavy snow later today in Highland and Grampian areas as the wee 'Low' comes SSE into the North Sea and increasing the winds

A lot of this area has a decent snow cover already

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 



What's the chances of that wee low affecting central Scotland overnight ? No warnings for us as yet.
Kinross, Tayside Scotland 120m ASL
howham
17 January 2023 12:30:18

None here so far and I do wonder if it may be more wet than white here given the mixing and sea influence. We will see in a while I guess! Somewhere (in more northern or inland parts) is likely to be hit hard I would guess given the wording in the warning.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Yes please!  We had snow on Sunday night and again last night leaving a thin covering (about an inch?).  
dagspot
17 January 2023 12:39:00

What's the chances of that wee low affecting central Scotland overnight ? No warnings for us as yet.

Originally Posted by: Caprikid62 


Pretty slim Id say except skirting East coast. Though does have a wider western tail, presumably lost over the mountains as sinks south. Lets watch the blob south of Inverness and see where it goes/what it does

BBC graphics 1pm showing it fizzling out over mountains heading south
Neilston 600ft ASL
dagspot
17 January 2023 12:54:48
BBC News reporting ‘coldest night of the year’ last night… is that the case?  I thought last spell was much colder. 
Neilston 600ft ASL
wingman
17 January 2023 12:58:39
Coldest night of this year (2023) is where I suspect they are coming from. I can definitely confirm we had a minus 9 (maybe lower) here during the December 2022 spell 🙂
+1
dagspot
17 January 2023 13:00:10

Coldest night of this year (2023) is where I suspect they are coming from. I can definitely confirm we had a minus 9 (maybe lower) here during the December 2022 spell :-)

Originally Posted by: wingman 


Of course! I didn’t think of that.  Low bar to set though after only 3 weeks
Neilston 600ft ASL
doctormog
17 January 2023 18:06:59
Question: should this storm have been named?

The Met Office criteria state: “A storm will be named when it has the potential to cause an amber or red warning.”
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
MRayner
17 January 2023 18:31:59
Is a storm or polar low? See your point though 🤔
Location Whisky 🥃 country, Cragganmore ,Moray, 440 AMSL
Gavin D
17 January 2023 20:11:07
BBC weather for the week ahead

Next week
  • Mainly dry and settled
  • Often cloudy
  • Light winds
  • Milder


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/64297333 
Gavin D
18 January 2023 15:48:31
BBC Monthly Outlook

Drier next week then changeable from late January

Wednesday 18 January to – Sunday 22 January
Less cold and drier but rain in the west on Friday

Monday 23 January to – Sunday 29 January
Becoming drier and a bit chillier

Monday 30 January to – Sunday 12 February
Changeable. Maybe colder from mid-February onwards

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
+1
Gavin D
18 January 2023 16:43:40
Met office 10 day trend

Next 5 days
  • Cold with hard night frosts
  • Snow chance reducing
  • Slowly turning milder from west

Next week
  • Drier
  • Frosts remain likely
  • Fog patches

SSW
  • Winds in stratosphere change
  • Can lead to changes to UK weather
  • Chances small at the moment



+1
dagspot
18 January 2023 22:03:34
uninspiring BBC extended weather for the week.  At least nothing wild.  Grey and boring for most
Neilston 600ft ASL
dagspot
19 January 2023 18:00:13
who’s made way for the new female BBC weather presenter who seems to have been on 80% of BBC News broadcasts for past 48hrs?  Maybe Shafernaker been given the bullet again
Neilston 600ft ASL
dagspot
20 January 2023 17:59:39
Ben Rich  ‘could turn colder from the north towards end of next week’ 
Neilston 600ft ASL
MStewart
21 January 2023 09:37:40
This week’s met office weather snap had a good section regarding polar vortex and the current situation.

Alex Deakin did a very good job, in my opinion, and I learnt something. Sharing here for everyone else that might want a link. 

https://youtu.be/TF06lM1mic0 
 
Mark
Twickenham
12m ASL
dagspot
21 January 2023 13:28:48
What is this ‘snow bomb’ they talk of?
I better get my candles, sledge and shovels
2” per hour is very specific 

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scotland-faces-two-inches-snow-29013525.amp 
Neilston 600ft ASL
doctormog
21 January 2023 14:03:32

What is this ‘snow bomb’ they talk of?
I better get my candles, sledge and shovels
2” per hour is very specific 

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scotland-faces-two-inches-snow-29013525.amp 

Originally Posted by: dagspot 



They were using a chart at +342 hr from yesterday’s GFS 00z op run and basing a news story on it. Talk about desperation!
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gavin D
21 January 2023 15:25:59
BBC Monthly Outlook

Drier late January. Turning wetter in February

Saturday 21 January to – Sunday 29 January
Turning milder and wetter. Drier, chiller later

Monday 30 January to – Sunday 5 February
A lot of dry weather but wetter later

Monday 6 February to – Sunday 19 February
Unsettled. Colder risks late month

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
22 January 2023 08:48:06
A bit out of date I know but there is still lying snow in shaded parts from the 'surprise' snowfall of a few days ago.
Because snow of any kind is rare in these parts it was notable even if minimal in quantity. It was heavy for a time too (twenty minutes).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-64318059 
It's rare to see snow on Golden Cap as well. 
So that's two (minimal depth) snowfalls this winter but what is surprising is how long each one hung around. I think there must have been more frosts this winter too than for many winters past. Certainly made the daffs hold back  as they are not even in bud yet..
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
tallyho_83
25 January 2023 01:47:38
Very informative forecast by Aiden McGiven of Met Office:

If you want to know more about the Stratospheric developments he covers this at 24:45 so skip until then.

 


The effects of the Stratospheric warming NOT Sudden Stratospheric warming but significant warming and decrease in speeds of zonal winds at 10hpa over the N. Pole won't have an impact on our weather until at least middle of February, and that's even if it does!?  
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
26 January 2023 00:34:36
Met Office 10 day trend by Aiden McGiven! Gosh +16c in Aberdeen yet -9c in Benson, Oxfordshire?
 
 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


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