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Gavin D
03 January 2023 16:43:03
BBC Weather for the Week Ahead

Next few days
  • Saying mild
  • Wet and windy at times


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/64155763 
Gavin D
03 January 2023 21:48:07
European weather: Winter heat records smashed all over continent

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64158283 
Gavin D
04 January 2023 19:08:41
Met Office 10 day trend

Rest of January
  • Strong stratospheric polar vortex
  • Westerlies more likely




tallyho_83
05 January 2023 01:09:40
BBC Monthly Outlook:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
05 January 2023 02:20:14

Met Office 10 day trend

Rest of January

  • Strong stratospheric polar vortex
  • Westerlies more likely




Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



Explained very well - no sign of an SSW but definitely a sign of a SW or Stratospheric warming as seen in recent GFS runs at 10hpa starting over Siberia and pushing into the N. Pole and this could displace the PV at the very least and thus weaken the zonal winds and help promote northern blocking as well as the constant signal for this strong Siberian high which is present and there could be an SSW later down the line also Aiden mentioned about the MJO which I don't know much about however this gives us some hope!?
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gavin D
05 January 2023 09:17:14
2022 average annual temperature tops 10c for the first time on record

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-average-annual-temperature-was-10c-or-more-for-first-time-in-2022-met-office-says-12780281 
Gavin D
06 January 2023 17:01:56
BBC Monthly Outlook

Mostly mild and unsettled until later January

Wednesday 4 January to – Sunday 8 January
Occasionally wet and windy but relatively mild

Monday 9 January to – Sunday 15 January
Unsettled and chillier, especially in the north

Monday 16 January to – Sunday 29 January
Possibly turning colder later in January

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
dagspot
06 January 2023 17:28:54
you could probably copy and paste any recent January and would be same.  Lots of eggs in one basket  - the ‘possibly colder’ will disappear in a few weeks. 
Neilston 600ft ASL
tallyho_83
06 January 2023 19:09:12

you could probably copy and paste any recent January and would be same.  Lots of eggs in one basket  - the ‘possibly colder’ will disappear in a few weeks. 

Originally Posted by: dagspot 



True - Meanwhile the temperature over Siberia is remaining colder than average - well down into the -50C's.

Verkhoyansk: 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/yunb7s4um#?date=2023-01-12 
[img]https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/yunb7s4um#?date=2023-01-12[/img]
 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gavin D
07 January 2023 11:35:25
BBC Monthly Outlook

Unsettled, then drier and chillier mid-January

Saturday 7 January to – Sunday 15 January
Periodically wet and windy

Monday 16 January to – Sunday 22 January
Unsettled for a while then a drier trend

Monday 23 January to – Sunday 5 February
Changeable and perhaps colder into February

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook  
Gavin D
08 January 2023 21:53:30
BBC weather for the week ahead
  • Often wet and windy
  • Mainly mild


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/64204954 
dagspot
09 January 2023 21:59:40
Betsy going for ‘much colder’  ‘take note of the white blobs’ out until Wed next week midlands north…
Neilston 600ft ASL
tallyho_83
12 January 2023 00:49:02
Is there no model output forum?
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Zubzero
12 January 2023 01:21:11

Is there no model output forum?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



The outlook is so poor its broke the model output thread.
tallyho_83
12 January 2023 01:35:02

The outlook is so poor its broke the model output thread.

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 



Outlook is so dreadful I don't blame it for breaking - We have had weeks of rain drizzle, wind followed by more rain and wind etc! I guess the only good thing is that it has made up for the lack of rain last year especially throughout summer, following a drier winter and spring 2022!!

But on a serious note where is the Model Output Thread?
This is what I have up to page 50 with last post by Uncle Albert - but it's locked, wasn't there a new one which was started?
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t23426-Model-Output-thread--16th-December-08-08/page50 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


The Beast from the East
12 January 2023 02:35:16

Outlook is so dreadful I don't blame it for breaking - We have had weeks of rain drizzle, wind followed by more rain and wind etc! I guess the only good thing is that it has made up for the lack of rain last year especially throughout summer, following a drier winter and spring 2022!!

But on a serious note where is the Model Output Thread?
This is what I have up to page 50 with last post by Uncle Albert - but it's locked, wasn't there a new one which was started?
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t23426-Model-Output-thread--16th-December-08-08/page50 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



I posted on it earlier but it has been taken down, not sure why. Some worrying wind levels possible next week down the east coast. and the potential for some wintryness
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
tallyho_83
12 January 2023 03:32:59

I posted on it earlier but it has been taken down, not sure why. Some worrying wind levels possible next week down the east coast. and the potential for some wintryness

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Yes - I did PM Brian.
Sorry Missed your post. But lot's to talk about with a colder outlook especially early next week and possible SSW signs at least anyway!?
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


dagspot
12 January 2023 22:36:49
Fawksie mentioned possible ‘disruptive snow’ next week…
Neilston 600ft ASL
Gavin D
14 January 2023 15:42:02
BBC Monthly Outlook

A wintry start then milder. Drier later

Saturday 14 January to – Sunday 22 January
Cold and wintry. Milder late week

Sunday 29 January to – Sunday 5 February
Drier and calmer

Monday 6 February to – Sunday 19 February
Changeable. Colder risk mid-February

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
dagspot
15 January 2023 11:01:05
Matt on BBC Weather for week   ‘mild wet and windy for all by Friday’   #ColdSnip 
Neilston 600ft ASL
tallyho_83
15 January 2023 12:50:22

Matt on BBC Weather for week   ‘mild wet and windy for all by Friday’   #ColdSnip 

Originally Posted by: dagspot 



Wet and windy? that makes a change! NOT!

I notice the BBC monthly mention the MJO quite a lot - does this really have such an impact on our weather and if we do get a SSW will this be less favourable for HLB to develop?

Gavs weather vids - and not knocking Gav but never mentions about the MJO as far as I am concerned but both Aiden McGiven of Met Office and BBC monthly outlook mention it a lot and I never knew the stormy activity in the pacific can influence our weather and if so wouldn't it take time?
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


doctormog
15 January 2023 13:25:28

Matt on BBC Weather for week   ‘mild wet and windy for all by Friday’   #ColdSnip 

Originally Posted by: dagspot 



I didn’t see it, did he mention Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday at all? 😇
lanky
15 January 2023 13:37:09

I didn’t see it, did he mention Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday at all? 😇

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Susan Powell just did the BBC weather for the week on BBC1 at 13:10

Mon-Thurs this week large low pressure covering most of W Europe centred to our NNE maintaining a N airstream but smaller features cannot be accurately predicted this far out by the models. Smaller features most likely Mon along S Coast and clipping SE England, Tues N France, Wed N North Sea, Thur S North Sea. Temps 3-5C most days so snow over high ground if these small features come a little closer to the UK. The Sun/Mon feature running along the Channel likely to give heavy rain in the SE tomorrow morning with some snow over The Downs and The Weald. By Friday, The Atlantic making a comeback with a warm front approaching the west of the UK
 
Martin
Richmond, Surrey
dagspot
16 January 2023 14:09:45
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
16 January 2023 16:38:24

anyone come across any ‘chaos’ ?

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/21054663/uk-weather-travel-chaos-yellow-warnings/amp/ 

Originally Posted by: dagspot 



The floods around here are notable this winter. My son went to London on Friday but the track went in a major landslip and flooding elsewhere means he's staying tonight in Southampton.
https://www.dorsetecho.co.uk/news/23253777.pictures-flooding-dorchester-charminster-stratton/ 



 
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft

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