Osprey
23 November 2022 17:52:46

What the Met Office says about 'Beast from the East' and four inches of snow hitting UK

 

 

The Met Office has debunked theories that the UK is set to see a very wintery turn, with some forecasters predicting a 'Beast from the East' and up to four inches of snow within days. While temperatures have significantly dropped from the unseasonably mild early autumn the country had seen, it doesn't look like we can expect a white winter just yet.

In recent days some meteorologists warned that Britain could be facing a repeat of 2010 into 2011 when the country was crippled in the run up to Christmas with heavy snow and ice, reports The Express. The newspaper also reported indicators of a 'Beast from the East' which would see swathes of freezing weather at the start of December.

Jim Dale, meteorologist for British Weather Services told the Express: “There is a change in weather patterns now looking likely at the start of December. If this happens, we are in a classic position to get a cold flow in from the east, and with that, snow, ice and very cold winds. This is an indicator of a Beast from the East, and although it has not woken up fully yet, it is safe to say the beast is opening its eyes.” 

Met Office issues fresh weather warning for heavy rain and strong wind across whole of Wales

However, The Met Office has confirmed to WalesOnline that this is unlikely and that apart from a light dusting of snow possible on the mountains of Scotland, the rest of the UK is likely to be missed by the white stuff - including Wales.


Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...

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tallyho_83
25 November 2022 01:43:59

Originally Posted by: Osprey 

What the Met Office says about 'Beast from the East' and four inches of snow hitting UK

 

 

The Met Office has debunked theories that the UK is set to see a very wintery turn, with some forecasters predicting a 'Beast from the East' and up to four inches of snow within days. While temperatures have significantly dropped from the unseasonably mild early autumn the country had seen, it doesn't look like we can expect a white winter just yet.

In recent days some meteorologists warned that Britain could be facing a repeat of 2010 into 2011 when the country was crippled in the run up to Christmas with heavy snow and ice, reports The Express. The newspaper also reported indicators of a 'Beast from the East' which would see swathes of freezing weather at the start of December.

Jim Dale, meteorologist for British Weather Services told the Express: “There is a change in weather patterns now looking likely at the start of December. If this happens, we are in a classic position to get a cold flow in from the east, and with that, snow, ice and very cold winds. This is an indicator of a Beast from the East, and although it has not woken up fully yet, it is safe to say the beast is opening its eyes.” 

Met Office issues fresh weather warning for heavy rain and strong wind across whole of Wales

However, The Met Office has confirmed to WalesOnline that this is unlikely and that apart from a light dusting of snow possible on the mountains of Scotland, the rest of the UK is likely to be missed by the white stuff - including Wales.

 

Haha You have to LOL really they don't half contradict - "Four inches of snow hitting the UK" yet promply say there could just be a light dusting of snow in Scotland and that the rest of the UK is likely to be missed by the white stuff. - Including Wales."

 


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CreweCold
25 November 2022 03:10:29

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

 

 

Haha You have to LOL really they don't half contradict - "Four inches of snow hitting the UK" yet promply say there could just be a light dusting of snow in Scotland and that the rest of the UK is likely to be missed by the white stuff. - Including Wales."

 

I saw the Metoffice statement. They don't help themselves to be honest.

Looking at the charts at the moment, there is a very real possibility that a significant cold spell occurs this December, possibly as soon as two weeks time. Some output has snow showers pushing in as soon as 10 days from now. All the public will remember is the Metoffice dismissing snow chances for many, not the nuances within the article and the timescales involved.

There was no reason at all to even make the statement, just keep your powder dry and advise as and when needed.


Crewe, Cheshire

55 metres above sea level

GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
25 November 2022 10:28:22

Originally Posted by: CreweCold 

 

I saw the Metoffice statement. They don't help themselves to be honest.

Looking at the charts at the moment, there is a very real possibility that a significant cold spell occurs this December, possibly as soon as two weeks time. Some output has snow showers pushing in as soon as 10 days from now. All the public will remember is the Metoffice dismissing snow chances for many, not the nuances within the article and the timescales involved.

There was no reason at all to even make the statement, just keep your powder dry and advise as and when needed.

I think it's a case of poor journalism rather than the Met Office being in the wrong. There is no contradiction by the Met Office themselves, just that their forecast is different to Jim Dale's. In fact the Met Office stated that December 7th is too far away to be certain about any outcome. It looks to me like Wales Online have just taken the Met Office long term forecast and interpreted that. Unless there was some other statement directly in reaction to Jim Dale's? 

Too often these days, lazy journalists just take some weather model output, usually a long time into the future, and make a big headline from it. 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

ballamar
26 November 2022 17:56:22
First time in a long time wintry precipitation forecast on BBC for 9th December. 
Rob K
29 November 2022 11:16:17
This thread had dropped way down the forum. Interesting to see the Met long ranger flagging up possible wintry showers.

UK long range weather forecast

Saturday 3 Dec - Monday 12 Dec

On Saturday, rather cloudy with occasional showers, these most frequent in the east and on southern coasts. Most sunshine will be seen in western and northwestern areas. At the weekend and into the start of next week, showers are likely, mainly in eastern and southeastern areas and perhaps some more persistent rain to the southwest. These may become wintry, but this risk will be mostly confined to higher ground. Towards the end of the period similar conditions are expected to continue with showers present in eastern and southern coastal areas. These also have the potential to become wintry on higher ground. Temperatures are expected to be below average, especially in the south at the start of the period where easterly winds will make it feel somewhat colder.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Mon 28 Nov 2022


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

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Whiteout
29 November 2022 14:58:39
Updated, seem to be getting a little bit more wintry each day:

On Sunday, rather cloudy for many with scattered showers, most frequent and heaviest in the east, possibly wintry over hills. Most sunny spells and drier weather will be seen in western areas, with easterly winds strong in places. Into next week, occasional showers will affect the UK, these heaviest and most frequent along eastern coastal areas, with a chance of longer spells of rain for southern UK at times. Showers may become wintry over higher ground, with a risk of sleet over lower levels at times. A continuation of these conditions is favoured towards the end of the period, with precipitation generally most likely in eastern and southern regions. Temperatures will likely be below average, especially in the south where easterly winds may make it feel even colder at times.


Home/Work - Dartmoor

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Whiteout
29 November 2022 15:47:33
A little upgrade here too:

Confidence is low for this period, but overall settled and relatively dry weather is more likely than stormy weather. At this time of year frost and fog are common, and the chance of these, along with below-normal temperatures and spells of wintry precipitation, is slightly higher than usual. Conversely, heavy rain and strong winds are less likely than in a typical December.


Home/Work - Dartmoor

220m/725 ft asl

35 mins walk to 500m/1640 ft asl

 

Whiteout
30 November 2022 15:41:32
And a little upgrade again, slowly, slowly:

On Monday, showers are likely for many, these heaviest and most frequent in the east and south, perhaps becoming persistent rain at times and possibly wintry over hills. Elsewhere largely cloudy, with drier, sunny spells particularly in the northwest. Continuing through the week, occasional showers are expected, these heaviest and most frequent along eastern coasts with a chance of longer spells of rain for southern UK. Showers may become wintry over higher ground, with a further risk of sleet over lower levels at times. A cold northerly flow is likely to develop, drawing temperatures below average and feeling even colder at times, particularly during fresh winds. This may bring some wintry weather, with an increased risk of overnight frost and perhaps snow showers, not confined to higher ground.


Home/Work - Dartmoor

220m/725 ft asl

35 mins walk to 500m/1640 ft asl

 

Whiteout
30 November 2022 15:56:22
Nice 10 day trend video too:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vn5vCBGez3o 


Home/Work - Dartmoor

220m/725 ft asl

35 mins walk to 500m/1640 ft asl

 

Whiteout
01 December 2022 15:10:24
The little upgrades continue, wintry been replaced by snow - yes for higher ground but baby steps 😁

​​​​​​On Tuesday, showers and rain are expected in the south, southeast and north of the UK. Moreover, Snow and heavy showers are then possible across high ground. Moderate winds are expected in most areas, locally strong in the north and perhaps south of the UK. For the rest of the period, high-pressure systems should dominate across the northwest and low-pressure systems are likely to persist in the southwest of the UK. As a result, occasional showers and moderate winds are expected throughout the rest of the period, especially around northern coasts, with more persistent rainfall likely in southern regions. Snow and snow showers are expected at times across high-ground areas. Temperatures are likely to be below normal through the period, possibly feeling rather cold.


Home/Work - Dartmoor

220m/725 ft asl

35 mins walk to 500m/1640 ft asl

 

Whiteout
02 December 2022 14:38:17
As Neil said, an upgrade in the Met forecast:

​​​​​​There is reasonable confidence that temperatures will remain below average, and it looks like turning even colder from Wednesday. Showers will fall increasingly as snow in the north, even to lower levels at times with notable accumulations over the Scottish mountains. There is a low risk in the far southwest, of a more prolonged spell of rain, which would turn to snow over the moors, but this is far from certain. (nimby 😍)The best of the clear or sunny spells looks most likely in the west, though this could lead to some hard night frosts. Towards mid-month, the signal for below average temperatures weakens with hints of milder, wetter conditions pushing in from the southwest - though any such features could be preceded by a period of hill snow.


Home/Work - Dartmoor

220m/725 ft asl

35 mins walk to 500m/1640 ft asl

 

doctormog
03 December 2022 09:14:57
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Quite a wintry update from the BBC Monthly forecast. 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.bbc.com/weather/outlook&ved=2ahUKEwi4mOuNgd37AhXWQEEAHVzaDSgQFnoECBwQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1vO1osHVYlulQuT1WuMmmz 

 

That really is! To be fair it matches the current and recent model output nicely.


dagspot
03 December 2022 14:31:44
Stav on BBC suggesting 'significant accumulations'  presumably for the favoured spots in the North 
Neilston 600ft ASL
marting
03 December 2022 14:41:58
Met Office update this PM, fairly chilly:

Thursday 8 Dec - Saturday 17 Dec

It will likely continue to be cold with further showers for much of the UK, which will fall as sleet and snow across the north leading to some accumulations of snow across higher ground, showers falling as rain or sleet more likely in parts of the south. Away from coasts there will likely be a good deal of fine and dry weather with sunny spells at times in the south, but with some sharp overnight frosts expected. There is a small chance that some less cold weather and rain could push up into the extreme south later on in the forecast period. On balance, however temperatures remaining cold or very cold everywhere in the UK throughout.


Martin

Greasby, Wirral.

doctormog
04 December 2022 09:22:14
There's an interesting contrast between the BBC and Met Office forecast for here in the coming days. 

BBC: 

  • Sunny spells and showers feeding in from the north on Tuesday, these turning wintry in the afternoon. Another day of sunshine and wintry showers on Wednesday, these most frequent over the Isles. Trending colder. It will continue cold on Thursday but not as breezy. Showers continue wintry on the hills, and merge to longer spells of sleet and snow at times.

Met Office:

  • Turning colder with frequent showers, these turning increasing to snow later Tuesday with lying snow likely Wednesday and Thursday. Lying snow drifting in the occasionally strong northerly winds.


Gavin D
05 December 2022 09:04:28
Forecasters at the Met Office are set to announce they are backing industrial action this week
Whiteout
05 December 2022 09:55:02
Straight to amber:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/?tab=coldWeatherAlert&season=normal 


Home/Work - Dartmoor

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35 mins walk to 500m/1640 ft asl

 

nsrobins
05 December 2022 14:24:14
Originally Posted by: Whiteout 

Straight to amber:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/?tab=coldWeatherAlert&season=normal 

I don't think those colours ae the same as teh three levels in the wanings system. Not an 'amber' warning in th esense we know it but serious nethertheless.


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

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