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Posted Wed 16th January 2019 18:54
The weather during the next few days will be a lot colder than it has been recently. Initially some wintry showers are likely but they fade away tomorrow as a ridge of high pressure topples in from the west. During Friday and Saturday an area of low pressure sinks southeastwards and it leads to the possibility of some snow. Computer models have been handling the track of the low pressure inconsistently so there is uncertainty.
I'll quickly step through some of this evening's computer model output to illustrate the favoured scenarios.
The Meteo France Arpege model is very good and in my experience its precipitation forecasts are often very similar to those produced by the UK Met Office. If you're hoping to see some snow the news isn't great. Arpege shows the disturbance slipping away southeastwards with patchy outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow only really affecting western areas. As the precipitation pushes eastwards it fades away later on Friday night and Saturday morning.
The German Icon model suggests a greater risk of snow. It shows a more active band of precipitation pushing eastwards on Friday night. The chart below is for 21:00 GMT. If correct the snow would be quite heavy in parts of central and northern Britain. In the south it's a mixture of rain, sleet and snow. The model run goes on to show the precipitation pushing into eastern counties and retaining some of its intensity.
The lower resolution American GFS model shows a similar picture to the DWD ICON. The snow would produce accumulations in much of central and northern Britain. In fact a covering in parts of the south couldn't be discounted if it is correct. This run also goes on to show the precipitation band maintaining some structure as it advances into eastern counties.
There is a possibility of snow in places during the next few days. If the ICON and GFS models are correct snow could fall over quite a large part of the country through Friday night and into Saturday. However, the Arpege shows the precipitation weakening rapidly and only really affecting western counties where it brings a mix of rain, sleet and snow.
In situations like this it's not possible to make a call, but at the moment I expect the Arpege to be closer to the mark. Therefore the risk of snow would be less widespread than the other two models I've used suggest. The details should firm up during the next 36 hours and if there is a significant change I will post an update on Thursday.
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