The latest weather buzz

Weather updates from site founder Brian Gaze that keep you in the know.

Looking into December

Posted Mon 26th November 15:34

Stormy conditions are set to sweep across the UK during the next few days. Unsettled weather probably continues next week but there are signs of a change as we head into the second week of December.

Mid month pressure patterns

The GEFS 6z postage stamp plot below is for Wednesday 12th December. Data from all of the GEFS runs is plotted and in this instance it shows 500hPa heights and surface pressure. Basically yellows and oranges indicate areas of higher pressure. In the winter months you generally want them to be to the north or west of the UK if cold and snow are your thing. So what does this plot say?

An approximate breakdown is:

8 stamps show high pressure over the southern half of the UK with an Atlantic flow in the north

2 stamps show high pressure building strongly to the north of the UK

6 stamps show high pressure building over all of the UK

That suggests there is a good chance of high pressure sitting over the southern half of the UK and a moderate chance of it sitting over all of the UK. There is a low chance of it becoming centred to the north.

What does that mean for our weather? It indicates dry and settled conditions for the south with a risk of fog and nighttime frost. Daytime temperatures could be on the low side. That scenario is also possible in the north but it is less likely and there is a greater chance of an Atlantic flow continuing to bring rain bearing frontal systems. The chance of a "big freeze" northerly or easterly punch during the period under discussion is very low.

TL;DR

Unsettled weather is the name of the game during the next 10 days. By the second week of December there continue to be a signal for anticyclonic conditions to return, at least in the southern half of the UK. If that happens the chance of frost  and fog will increase.

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