BBC monthly outlook

UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Mar 2017 to Monday 20 Mar 2017:

A changeable theme looks likely until the middle of March. Bands of rain will cross the UK with more showery and bright interludes probable in between. The heaviest rain is expected in western and north-western areas with wintry showers likely over higher ground. The unsettled weather could also bring windy spells with gales in exposed places. Temperatures are thought to be around average; perhaps milder in the southeast, but all areas could get colder as we go through the period with more of a northerly influence. From the middle of the month, there are signals for more settled weather to dominate, at least initially, although there is still the potential for showers, particularly in the north-west.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 21 Mar 2017 to Tuesday 4 Apr 2017:

There are signals for the second half of March and into early April to see some kind of blocked patterned at least initially. This means there are signs for generally drier than average conditions and more settled weather across the country. However, there is still the potential for showers and longer spells of rain at times, particularly in the north-west. Temperatures look to be around average for the time of year.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Interesting!

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Next week

Northwest-southeast split developing

Northwest wet and windy at times
Southeast drier and brighter

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/39187829 

Next week

Northwest-southeast split developing

Northwest wet and windy at times
Southeast drier and brighter

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/39187829

@ 3:15 he said I quote re the cold weather "Not yet nailed on with any detail or any timing!" - I mean they seemed more confident a few days ago - just strange how each time that when they initially forecast a cold spell/snap or whatever - they seem less confident about it the closer we get to it and when we do it becomes a cooler snap or a cold snap giving us a "one night stand!" -  What should happen is that confidence show grow the closer we get not become more unreliable. I believe that they depend on models too much don't you!? The ensembles and gfs Have DONE NOTHING BUT FLIP-FLOP this winter.

Looks milder and unsettled rather than blocked and colder or easterly just looks horrible for the start of spring.

Se Gav's latest video here:

https://youtu.be/d9RAMJTafZE

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Bill Giles has a good old rant in the Telegraph - he makes some excellent points, IMO!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/07/bill-giles-do-weather-presenters-think-have-no-common-sense/ 

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Sunday 12 Mar 2017 to Tuesday 21 Mar 2017:

Remaining unsettled for much of the UK on Sunday, it'll be rather windy with showers or longer spells of rain. However, conditions are likely to become drier, brighter and less windy as we head into the new working week, particularly across southern and eastern areas. During this time, we will probably still see occasional bands of rain moving in from the west to affect mainly the north of the UK though. Later in the period it may well gradually become more unsettled and windy again across the country with gales in the northwest at times. Temperatures will probably be near of slightly above average, but still with the risk of night frosts, especially in central and southern parts.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 22 Mar 2017 to Wednesday 5 Apr 2017:

There are currently signals for the end of March and into early April to see some kind of blocked pattern for the UK weather. This means there are signs for generally drier than average conditions and more settled weather than normal across the country. However, there is still the potential for showers and longer spells of rain at times, particularly in the north-west, where it could also be windy at times. Details of temperatures are a little uncertain, but temperatures generally look to be around average for the time of year.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Well no northerly or north westerly this weekend except for maybe Shetland even then it's not even a one night stand for them more like one hour or two stand! Also as for turning colder and more blocked mid month with potential of an easterly - looks like it will turn milder and with light winds feel pleasantly warm: - Just reading the weather online week ahead update.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/week-ahead.htm

 

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Sunday 12 Mar 2017 to Tuesday 21 Mar 2017:

Remaining unsettled for much of the UK on Sunday, it'll be rather windy with showers or longer spells of rain. However, conditions are likely to become drier, brighter and less windy as we head into the new working week, particularly across southern and eastern areas. During this time, we will probably still see occasional bands of rain moving in from the west to affect mainly the north of the UK though. Later in the period it may well gradually become more unsettled and windy again across the country with gales in the northwest at times. Temperatures will probably be near of slightly above average, but still with the risk of night frosts, especially in central and southern parts.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 22 Mar 2017 to Wednesday 5 Apr 2017:

There are currently signals for the end of March and into early April to see some kind of blocked pattern for the UK weather. This means there are signs for generally drier than average conditions and more settled weather than normal across the country. However, there is still the potential for showers and longer spells of rain at times, particularly in the north-west, where it could also be windy at times. Details of temperatures are a little uncertain, but temperatures generally look to be around average for the time of year.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Says it all now and because they follow the models their forecasts/outlooks always end up wrong and inaccurate every time - Now today the update -  not one mention of the word cold weather or snow.

Let's say if (this won't happen) but if the gfs FI range showed easterly's then perhaps they would re-introduce the "prolonged cold spell chance" into their outlook I guess? What do you make of this?

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Find these bulletins rather tedious.
Granted its a period where we can get all weathers, but these forecast guesses seemed to be filled with most variables to cover themselves for most eventualities nowadays. The words uncertain, likely, maybe, possibly, low confidence feature more than ever to what they used to.
From my untrained eye graphics have moved on, but I don't find the accuracy of forecasting has improved much if at all for what seems decades.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=8015;sess= matt hugo model guidance

 

STORM ALERT: Britain set for torrential rain, gales and flooding in run up to weekend

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/776286/storm-alert-Britain-UK-weather-rain-gales-flooding-weekend 

Early next week

High pressure builds

Afterwards

High pressure near by
Drier
Temperature uncertain

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/39200031 

STORM ALERT: Britain set for torrential rain, gales and flooding in run up to weekend

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/776286/storm-alert-Britain-UK-weather-rain-gales-flooding-weekend

Well a few days ago this was what the Express had to say:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/774074/UK-weather-forecast-long-range-coldest-spring-snow-May-weather-warning

- I take it that the 'big freeze' won't last until May now then?

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Monday 13 Mar 2017 to Wednesday 22 Mar 2017:

High pressure is increasingly likely in the vicinity of the UK initially next week, bringing dry and sometimes bright weather to many central and southern parts. The north and north-west will be cloudier, changeable and probably windy with rain at times, possibly spreading further east on occasion, especially later in the week. For most of the period many places will have dry, bright periods, but we will probably still see occasional bands of rain moving in from the west to affect mainly the north and north-west. It'll be windy at times, mainly in the north where gales are possible at times. Temperatures will probably be near or slightly above average, but still with the risk of night frosts, especially in central and southern parts.

UK Outlook for Thursday 23 Mar 2017 to Thursday 6 Apr 2017:

There are currently signals for the end of March and into early April to see some kind of blocked pattern for the UK weather. This means there are signs for generally drier than average conditions and more settled weather than normal across the country. However, there is still the potential for showers and longer spells of rain on occasion, particularly in the north-west, where it could also be windy at times. Details of temperatures are a little uncertain, but temperatures generally look to be around average for the time of year.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

the MO was doing well in there forecast above until I got to the end and spotting the word .... uncertain.....  but hey ho it was only to do with temps,

What weather can we expect for Easter and May?

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2017/03/08/what-weather-can-we-expect-for-easter-and-may/ 

Next week

High pressure near by
Drier in south
Average temperatures

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/39213025 

15c sunny

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Tuesday 14 Mar 2017 to Thursday 23 Mar 2017:

High pressure is likely to dominate the south-eastern half of the UK on Tuesday, with a risk of fog and frost. Cloud and outbreaks of locally heavy rain in the north-west will make erratic progress eastwards while weakening. Unsettled conditions are then more likely from midweek with wet and windy weather, particularly in the north with severe gales possible here. Into the weekend and following week, many places will have dry, bright periods, but we will probably still see occasional bands of rain moving in from the west, affecting mainly the north and north-west. It'll be windy at times, mainly in the north where gales are possible. Temperatures will probably be near or slightly above average, but still with the risk of night frosts, especially in central and southern parts.

UK Outlook for Friday 24 Mar 2017 to Friday 7 Apr 2017:

There are currently signals for the end of March and into early April to see some kind of blocked pattern for the UK weather. This means there are signs for generally drier than average conditions and more settled weather than normal across the country. However, there is still the potential for showers and longer spells of rain on occasion, particularly in the north-west, where it could also be windy at times. Details of temperatures are a little uncertain, but temperatures generally look to be around average for the time of year

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

End of next week

Becoming drier
Some sunshine
Windy in the north

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/39223441 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Wednesday 15 Mar 2017 to Friday 24 Mar 2017:

High pressure looks set to bring largely settled conditions by mid-week, especially in the south where we will see a greater chance of some sunshine. More unsettled weather is expected further north with a greater risk of rain and strong winds; there is a low chance that any rain will spread to southern areas. A mild feel is likely to continue with only limited frosts. Towards the end of next week it looks like a north south split will continue with more changeable conditions further north and drier weather more likely in the south. Towards the end of the period it becomes more uncertain, but a mix of settled weather with wetter, windy interludes more likely in the north is the preferred scenario; and probably somewhat colder.

UK Outlook for Saturday 25 Mar 2017 to Saturday 8 Apr 2017:

By late March the outlook is very uncertain. There are currently signals for the end of March and into early April to see some kind of blocked pattern for the UK weather. This means there are signs for generally drier than average conditions and more settled weather than normal across the country. However, there is still the potential for showers and longer spells of rain on occasion, particularly in the north-west, where it could also be windy at times. Details of temperatures are very uncertain, but temperatures generally look to be around average for the time of year.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast