Autumn was slightly milder than average, with mean temperatures of 9.92°C which is 0.20°C above the 1991-2020 average. Rainfall amounts were slightly below average, but there were significant regional variations.
Despite several colder periods the winter as a whole was milder than average. The mean temperature was 4.62°C which is 0.53°C above the norm. Rainfall and sunshine amounts were also slightly below average.
March has been a very dry month. In fact England and Wales experienced their driest March in over 60 years. In the short term the dry conditions are expected to continue.
To be clear, the period under discussion here is the meteorological summer. It runs from 1st June to 31st August. The astronomical summer in the Northern Hemisphere begins on 21st June and ends on 22nd or 23rd September.
Because the meteorological seasons cover fixed months they make it easier to consistently compare data across years and decades. In the digital age that is less of an issue than it was, but records span hundreds of years, many of which predate modern computers.
When looking at long term weather prospects, a number of inputs can be considered. These include seasonal models and analogues, which compare recent weather patterns with those of past years.
Teleconnections which describe how persistent weather patterns in one part of the world can influence weather patterns in another, are also considered in The Weather Outlook seasonal forecasts. However, their links to the UK's weather are generally weak, particularly in the summer. Nonetheless, in this discussion, the ENSO outlook is referenced. North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are also included.
Seasonal models are run by a number of national forecasting systems. They provide indications of global trends for the coming months, but their skill level (accuracy) for the UK remains low. Nonetheless they are a good starting point when considering future prospects.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) runs a multi model ensemble, which combines data from a number of models, including the UK Met Office GloSea, Météo-France, DWD (Germany) and CMCC. It provides probabilities for different scenarios, e.g., warmer or colder, wetter or drier than average.
Unlike short and medium range models which update several times each day, refreshes to the seasonal models tend to be monthly.
So what do they indicate at the time of publication?
The C3S strongly favours above average temperatures, as can be seen on the chart below. Of note is that virtually the whole of Europe is in the "very high" confidence band indicating that temperatures will be in the upper tercile, which represents the warmest 33% of historical data.
Usually the signal for temperatures is stronger than it is for rainfall. Rainfall amounts can often vary significantly as a result of small changes in the position of the jet stream. Modelling these months ahead is not currently possible. Also, in the summer months convection plays a big part, leading to the development of showers and thunderstorms. They can drop large amounts of rain in very localised areas. But does the C3S give any indications on whether it will be a drier or wetter season?
The chart below is similar to the one above, but instead of temperature probabilities it shows precipitation probabilities. The suggestion is that the southern half of the UK is more likely to have a drier than average season than a wetter one. Although the confidence level is low, falling into the 40-50% range, it is still significant. Why?
A key reason is that it is generated by averaging out the forecasts from a number of seasonal models, as previously discussed. Therefore, if a signal is still present it suggests underlying factors are broadly supportive. The second reason is the yellow shading which indicates this covers most of Europe, rather than just a small section of it.
The state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has significant impact on temperature and rainfall patterns around the globe, but its link to the UK summer is weak.
Latest forecasts suggest a 62% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions developing in the next month and continuing through the Northern Hemisphere summer.
The ENSO outlook doesn't favour a particular outcome.
AccuWeather is predicting near to above the historical average number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes. They are forecasting a dynamic season where hurricanes rapidly strengthen, in part due to sea surface temperatures being well above the historical average.
Would a very active Atlantic hurricane season lead to a washout summer in the UK? Not necessarily. It is possible that ex-hurricanes in the North Atlantic could increase the chance of blocking areas of high pressure developing over Europe.
The warmer than average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in much of the Atlantic also support the idea of higher than normal temperatures in the UK.
In recent decades periods of extreme heat have become more frequent in the UK. Summer 1976 is often used as a benchmark because the dry and hot weather persisted for such a long time. However, the highest temperature recorded then, 35.9°C in Cheltenham on 3rd July, has been easily surpassed a number of times in recent years. In 2022 it was beaten by a huge 4.4°C in 2022, when 40°C was exceeded for the first time on record in the UK.
Maximum temperatures for recent years are listed below:
2024: 34.8°C, 12th August, Cambridge
2023: 33.2°C, 9th September, Kew Gardens
2022: 40.3°C, 19th July, Coningsby, Lincolnshire
2021: 32.2°C, 21st July, Heathrow, Middlesex
2020: 37.8°C, 31st July, Heathrow, Middlesex
2019: 38.7°C, 25th July, Cambridge Botanical Gardens
2018: 35.3°C, 26th July, Faversham, Kent
2017: 34.5°C, 21st June, Heathrow, Middlesex
2016: 34.4°C, 13th September, Gravesend, Kent (Note: This was in the meteorological autumn)
2015: 36.7°C, 1st July, Heathrow, Middlesex
The last time 30°C wasn't reached in the UK was in 1993. In that year the top temperature recorded was 29.7°C in East Bergholt, Suffolk. In more recent times, 2007 and 2008 brought maximums of 30.1°C and 30.2°C respectively.
The trend in recent months continues to favour above average temperatures, although the Central England Temperature (CET) for January was 0.4°C below the 1961-90 average.
This involves comparing historical weather patterns with current ones. On The Weather Outlook (TWO) the Weather Analogue Index (WAI) is updated every day. It compares current weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere with those at the same time in every year going back to 1948.
To reduce variability, an average is built over extended periods, for example 30 days. At the time of publication the top 10 best matches for the 30 day tracker are shown in the table below.
At this stage the analogues are quite mixed. The best match is 1975 which was a very warm summer, although it is often overlooked because it immediately preceded 1976, which became the "gold standard" for UK summers. However, the other entries are surprisingly close to the 1961-1990 norm, and seven of them are below the current 1991-2020 average.
1) Seasonal models strongly forecast above average temperatures over the June, July and August period
2) A transition to ENSO neutral conditions is expected
3) Early forecasts for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season indicate high activity
4) Recent climatology favours warm weather
5) Northern hemisphere analogues favour a cooler summer relative to the 1991-2020 norm
Therefore, at this stage it is the analogues versus computer models and recent climatology.
This discussion will be updated periodically before the summer forecast is issued at the end of May.
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