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Summer 2022

Update 2


13/05/2022

The TWO summer forecast will be issued in late May. This is the second update which provides an overview of what the seasonal models are currently suggesting and some of the background signals which may have an impact.

Fine summer weather in the Chilterns

Fine summer weather in the Chilterns

Seasonal model overview

A range of seasonal models are available. However it is important to remember that their skill level (accuracy) for the UK is low.

Model Temperature Rain
GloSea (UKM) Above average Close to or below average
ECM Above average Mostly above average
ECC Above average Below average
Meteo France Above average Below average
DWD Above average  Mostly below average
CS3 Above average Below average in the south
JMA Above average Below average in the north
CMCC Above average Below average in the south
CFSv2 Above average Mostly above average
Table 1: Forecast temperature and precipitation anomalies, June, July and August

 

The notable things at this stage are:

i) All of the models seem to favour above average temperatures in most of the UK when taken over the 3 month summer period as a whole

ii) As is usually the case the rain signal is less clear. On balance there are suggestions of it being drier than average

Anomalies masking the outcome

The anomalies in the table may not be telling the complete story. They are for the meteorological summer as a whole and there is a chance that extreme swings are cancelling each other out to an extent. For example, in recent summers there have been several intense bursts of heat despite rather mixed conditions dominating. 

ENSO conditions

The state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has significant impact on temperature and rainfall patterns around the globe. Nonetheless its link to the UK summer is thought to be weak.

Latest forecasts suggest La Nina conditions through June - August.

Analysis suggests that La Nina summers have a tendency to produce drier than average summers in the mid-Atlantic. Despite that, there isn't a clear pattern for the UK.

Atlantic Hurricane season

Several forecasts for the 2022 hurricane season have been issued. They are suggesting above average levels of activity. 

NOAA is predicting a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

Colorado State University is predicting 19 named storms of which 9 become hurricanes.

Accuweather is predicting 16 to 20 named storms of which 6 to 8 become hurricanes. 

The predictions possibly favour an increased chance of settled weather in the UK during the late summer.

Summer sun
Can we expect a lot of weather like this?

Summary

1) Seasonal models suggest above average temperatures taken over the June, July and August period as a whole. There is a signal for rainfall amounts to be below the average. 

2) La Nina conditions are not expected to favour a particular outcome.

3) The latest 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season forecasts continue to suggest above average levels of activity. That may point to an increased chance of settled weather in the late summer.

4) Recent climatology favours above average temperatures and an increased chance of hot spells.

A warmer than average summer is favoured. Lower confidence is attached to rainfall levels, but the possibility of it being drier than average is weakly favoured.

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