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Spring 2022

First look at the meteorological spring


24/01/2022

The meteorological spring

The meteorological spring runs from March 1st to May 31st. The season coincides with a big transformation in the weather. At the start of the season cold periods are relatively frequent and March often brings more snow than December. However, very warm or even hot spells are possible in May.

Winter 2021/22 has been milder and drier than average so far. Overall UK rainfall totals for December were 90% of the average and the mean temperature of 5.3C is 1.1C above the 1991-2020 average. January has been dominated by high pressure so there have been long dry periods, particularly in southern and central regions.

At the moment the medium range computer models are suggesting that pressure will remain higher than average during the early part of February, although there are indications of things becoming somewhat more changeable at times.

Spring rainbow

Spring rainbow over Berkhamsted

Seasonal models

Publicly available data from most of the seasonal models now covers the three month spring period.

Model Temperature Precipitation
UK Met Office GloSea (UK) M/A/M Near or above average Below average
Meteo France (France) M/A/M Above average Mostly no bias
ECMWF M/A/M Above average No bias in the south. Above average in the north
DWD (Germany) M/A/M Above average Mostly above average
International Research Institute (IRI) M/A/M No bias Above in southern and central regions
CMCC M/A/M Above average Mostly no bias
JMA (Japan) M/A/M Above average Mostly no bias
C3S multi system (Combi) M/A/M Above average Mostly no bias. Above in the far north
CFS v2 (USA) M/A/M Above average  Mostly no bias


M/A/M = March, April, May

The Climate Forecast System v2 is available on TWO. View the latest CFS v2 charts.

At this stage aggregated temperatures for March, April and May are considered more likely to be above average than below. The seasonal models do not show a clear signal for precipitation anomalies at this stage.

Summary

Tentative suggestions for the coming spring are:

1) Over the 3 month period temperatures are more likely to be above average than below

2) There is no clear signal for precipitation to deviate significantly from the 30 year average

It is worth noting that spring 2021 was quite cold overall. It brought the coldest April since 1989 and the coldest May since 1996. On the other hand the March mean temperature was 0.9C above the average. Since then most months have been warmer than the 30 year norm. 

The TWO seasonal forecast will be updated to cover the spring months on February 28th.

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