A range of charts generated using data from the UK Met Office MOGREPS (Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System) Global 10km and UKV 2km grids is now available on TheWeatherOutlook.
The 20km resolution global ensemble (MOGREPS-G) produces forecasts for the whole globe for up to 198 hours ahead.
Despite huge amounts of data being available from sources such as radiosondes, satellites and airplanes, the starting conditions fed into a computer model can only be an estimate of the current situation of the atmosphere.
Therefore, to help account for this uncertainty an ensemble model is run a number of times rather than just once. The starting conditions used in each run are altered slightly to help account for uncertainty about the atmosphere's initial state. The range of outcomes shows how sensitive the forecast is to small changes.
Data from MOGREPS-G can be viewed in a number of ways. Currently on the website the following chart types are available:
A postage stamp charts shows the forecasts for a specific parameter (e.g. wind gusts) from all of the runs in the ensemble at a given time. This format is best for assessing the range of outcomes across a geographical region, for example, a country such as the United Kingdom.
The charts are stepped at 3 hour intervals going out to 198 hours ahead.
The postage stamp chart below shows forecast wind gusts.
A line graph chart shows the forecasts for a specific parameter (e.g. temperature) from all of the runs in the ensemble at a given time and for a given location. This format is best for assessing the range of outcomes for individual locations, for example, a city such as London.
The line graph chart below shows forecast temperatures for London.
Four times daily. The model run times are:
00z (data starts becoming available from 05:45GMT)
06z (data starts becoming available from 11:40GMT)
12z (data starts becoming available from 17:40GMT)
18z (data starts becoming available from 23:45GMT)
The link below goes directly to the chart viewer. It can also be found on the site menu as well as the Model inventory page.
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See the Model inventory for the full list of model charts and data