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Summer 2020 has been very mixed. June was quite a warm month with several hot days.
July was more unsettled and the Central England Temperature (CET) finished slightly below the 30 year average.
The first half of August brought a spell of extreme heat to the southern half of the UK. It was followed by severe thunderstorms and downpours.
The summer Bank Holiday is on Monday 31st August. How are things looking?
The GEFS postage stamp chart below shows the forecast maximum temperatures on Monday 31st August. Each stamp represents the output from one of the GEFS model runs. The key is to look for commonalities between the runs to identify the most likely scenario.
At this stage all of the runs are showing temperatures close to or a little below the seasonal average. Nights are likely to be chilly and there is even a risk of ground frosts in sheltered western and northern locations. Confidence on this outcome is increasing but there is still time for things to change.
The postage stamp plot below shows the forecast rainfall from each GEFS run for the afternoon of Monday 31st August.
The plot suggests there is still uncertainty. Showery conditions are favoured early in the weekend and it could be windy, particularly in eastern Britain. Later in the period high pressure is expected to be building in from the west. It should lead to drier conditions with showers increasingly becoming confined to the east. Nonetheless, there is still the possibility of a more progressive pattern with weather fronts bringing outbreaks of rain to north western areas in particular.
Close to average temperatures are favoured during the August Bank Holiday weekend. There is a low chance of it being very warm in south eastern England. Showers or longer spells of rain are probable but a washout weekend is not expected.
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