News and information

Summer 2020 weather forecast

Overview and context



The TWO summer 2020 weather forecast covers June, July and August. The headline is for above average temperatures and close to normal rainfall. August is expected to be the most settled month.

Over the three month period the forecast is for Central England Temperature (CET) to be 0.5C to 1.5C above the average. Precipitation levels of between 90% and 110% are suggested.

Roaches, Leek, Staffordshire. Posted by toppiker60

How is the forecast produced?

Factors considered include the following:

  • A number of long range computer models run by the global forecasting centres. The ones considered this year were GloSea, ECM, Meteo France, DWD, CS3, Beijing Climate Center, CanSIPS, CFS v2.
  • Recent climatology
  • Trends during recent seasons
  • ENSO and Atlantic Hurricane season forecasts 
  • Pattern matching or analogues from previous years     

Forecast accuracy

Long range forecasts for the UK and north western Europe continue to display a low skill, in other words they are often inaccurate. This in large part is because the edge of the European landmass is affected by different air masses which can make even short range forecasting very difficult.


The June headline is for temperatures and rainfall to be close to the average. Spells of fine and warm weather are considered most likely late in the month.

July is forecast to be mixed with unsettled and thundery periods, particularly later on.

August is expected to be warmer and drier than average with a good deal of fine weather.

TWO seasonal forecast

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