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Easter Sunday falls on April 12th this year. The relatively late Easter suggests an increased likelihood of warmer weather. The early part of April has brought some warm conditions and the Central England Temperature (CET) to the 5th is provisionally 2.6C above the 30 year average. Nonetheless, even late in the month wintry conditions are possible, a good example is the famous cold spell in April 1981.
Easter eggs amsterdam" by Rotemdan - Own work. Licensed under Attribution via Wikimedia Commons
Computer models suggest that high pressure will be centred to the southwest of the UK during the Easter period but forecast details are very uncertain. The key points are:
1) After a warm start more changeable conditions are expected to return during the Easter period, particularly the north.
2) Good Friday and Saturday are looking very warm, especially across the southern half of the country. Cooler conditions are expected to spread southwards during Easter Sunday and Monday.
The GEFS 12z postage stamp plot (generated on Wednesday 8th April) below shows forecast maximum temperatures for Easter Sunday. GEFS is an ensemble computer model which helps to determine the probability of different weather outcomes.
The stamps suggest warmer than average temperatures in southern and central regions. In the north it looks cooler.
GEFS 12z ensemble maximum temperature plots for Easter Sunday
The Easter Sunday rain forecast chart below is also from the GEFS 12z model. It suggests there is a risk of showery rain but the details are uncertain. A number of the runs are showing dry conditions in large parts of the country.
GEFS 12z ensemble rain forecast plots for Easter Sunday
There is uncertainty about the weather during the Easter period. The best of the dry periods are expected to be in the south with rain more likely in the north west. In general terms Good Friday and Saturday look likely to be warmer and drier than Easter Sunday and Monday.
The charts used above are for Easter Sunday but the same general theme applies from Good Friday through the weekend and into Bank Holiday Monday.
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