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Glastonbury festival weather

2016 weather forecast

24th May 2016

Background

The Glastonbury 2016 festival takes place between Wednesday 22nd and Saturday 26th June. The early summer can see rain returning after drier spells in late spring and it is sometimes referred to as the European Monsoon or "return of the westerlies". At times in the past Glastonbury has been no stranger to mud and rain! How's it looking this year? Independent meteorologist Matthew Hugo, BSc, FRMetS, RMet takes a look.

Muddy festival scene

By Domharrison (Own work) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons 

Overview

Some of the Glasto weather ‘highlights’ over the years include the hottest temperature recorded which was 27.5C in 1984, 1985 was particularly wet with 43.8mm of rain, but in 1997 despite only a few mm’s of rain falling during the weekend, there was rain on 8 out of the 9 days before the festival which brought 78mm to the region. This highlights the importance of the weather not just during the event but before it too!

Forecasts and predictions

At this early stage there are some broader-scale signals in evidence as we move into June and these favour a period of more settled and high pressure dominated conditions during the early part of the month. Forecast weather data and information highlights this potential trend towards drier weather, but, unfortunately, it may well arrive at the wrong end of the month with regards to Glastonbury.

The current expected progression through June is for a possible transition towards more unsettled conditions during and beyond the mid-month period. Clearly to what extent is unknown, but after a settled start to the month, a period of more unsettled conditions may well arrive during or just after the middle of June. Clearly this could lead to some rainfall prior to the event at least.

This transition from more settled conditions early in the month to potentially more unsettled conditions later in the month is being signaled by the latest ECMWF longer range monthly data, along with the CFSv2 weekly as well. You can see this evolution on the charts below, clearly note the strong signal for high pressure (red colours) either over or just to the north of the UK between the 2nd and the 7th of June, but by the time we get towards the 12th to the 17th of June, so the run-up to the event there is a weak signal (light blue colours) for a more cyclonic and unsettled period of weather with a potential westerly type off the North Atlantic.

CFSv2 Glastonbury 2016 weather prospect

Summary

Early June may bring a spell of drier and more settled weather. As we move into the middle and second half of June there is currently a signal for a transition back to more unsettled weather. This brings the potential for rainfall in the period leading up to and possibly during the Glastonbury festival.

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