Weather updates from site founder Brian Gaze that keep you in the know.
Posted Mon 21st January 2019 16:10
What is going on with the weather? Is there snow on the way? There have been mixed message in recent days across the Internet and media in general, so what is the true picture?
Tonight an active cold front pushes southeastwards and brings a period of wet weather. A few days ago computer models were showing the rain widely turning to snow on the back edge of the front. That idea doesn't have as much support as it did, but there could be some wintry precipitation around tonight with snow likely over high ground in the north.
The precipitation type chart below is from today's DWD ICON 6z model run and is for 03:00 GMT tomorrow. The main band of precipitation associated with the cold front is mainly to be rain. However, wintry showers are feeding in behind it and they could give a covering of snow in places by the morning.
Tomorrow heavy wintry showers affect western areas early on. During the day they push eastwards across southern and central counties. A few showers could make it the Greater London area and I'd not be surprised to see sleet and wet snow in the south, especially over high ground such as the Cotswolds and Chilterns. In the north accumulations of snow are possible.
The DWD ICON precipitation type chart below is for 15:00 GMT tomorrow.
There has been a lot of discussion and speculation about a lengthy cold period becoming established. That scenario looked likely late late week. However, by Saturday changes were afoot and in my Buzz update on Saturday I said:
"Computer model runs from last night and this morning have thrown a spanner into the works with many of them pointing towards a less cold Atlantic flow winning out for a time."
That trend has continued since then. Milder air pushes across the country for a time later this week as can be seen on the London GEFS 06z plot below. However, colder conditions probably return quite quickly and 850hPa temperatures are then shown to stay below the 30 year average for the rest of the run.
Despite the likelihood of below average temperatures, the outlook now is quite cold or cold, rather than very cold. It's not clear from the plot above, but most of the GEFS runs bring colder air in from a northwesterly direction and there is currently little support for an easterly.
Whilst the northwest (polar maritime) is a cold direction, it's not as cold as the east (potentially polar continental). Cold arctic air moving down from the northwest has a long sea track to cover before it reaches the UK. Consequently it is modified and moderated.
In the short term some places see snow. Even parts of southern England could see wet snow falling tomorrow. In the longer term it's a mixed picture. Milder air returns for a time later this week, but colder conditions could push southwards again at the weekend. Next week there is the potential for more cold weather, but a bitterly cold Beast From The East style spell isn't currently expected.
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