Frozen In Time

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Historic heat plume possible

[Updated 07:40 21/06/2019]

Stonehenge

The summer solstice today will be accompanied by very ordinary weather. However, a big change is expected in the coming days. By Sunday temperatures rise and next week a potentially record breaking plume of upper level warmth moves northwards across France and probably the UK too. Several factors could prevent ground level temperatures breaking records, but exceptional humidity possibly makes it feel even hotter....READ IN FULL

Friday dry starts with showers in the north. They continue for much of the day but become more scattered this afternoon. Other areas have a mainly dry day, although an odd shower is possible. Sunny spells develop in all regions. 

Temperatures range from 13C (55F) in Scotland to 23C (73F) in the south east. See the rain radar for the latest view.

Arpege forecast chart 1

Meteo France Arpege, rain, 16:00 BST Fri 21st June

Tonight showers fade away and most places have a dry night. Clear spells lead to a cool night with temperatures falling into single figures quite widely.


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Summer forecast Issued 01/06/2019


Tomorrow looks mostly fine with sunny spells. Scattered showers may bubble up, especially in the north, but many places miss them. Temperatures will generally be a degree or two higher than today's.

Arpege forecast chart 2

Meteo France Arpege, rain, 16:00 BST Sat 22nd June

Record breaking heat plume possible

During Sunday morning cloud builds in the south west and Wales. Heavy outbreaks of rain push up from the southwest and through the afternoon they spread northwards, probably affecting much of western Britain and possibly Northern Ireland. Central and eastern England may have isolated thundery showers, but also warm sunny spells. Scotland has a mostly fine day.

By Monday it is expected to be turning hot. Central and eastern England could see temperatures as high as 31C (88F). Across the north and west further thundery downpours are likely.

The rest of the working week is currently looking hot and sunny in much of the country. Temperatures perhaps reach 36C (97F), and although not record breaking the humidity expected could make it stifling and cause health problems for some people. Thunderstorms are possible, with computer models suggesting western areas are most likely to seem them. The heat may start to break by the weekend and that could be the trigger for widespread storms.

The heat plume may break records. An easterly component to the wind direction and wet ground may prevent the UK all time temperature record falling. However, record upper air temperatures and dew points are possible. It may well feel like the UK has been moved to Florida for a time.

GFS forecast 500hPa heights and pressure

GFS 850hPa temperatures, 16:00 BST Thu 27th June

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16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

A trend towards drier conditions is shown in the short term. Around the 20th June the risk of it turning wetter increases again. Temperatures fluctuate but in the south it could become warm or very warm for a time. View latest GEFS.


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