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Monday begins with a disturbance stretching from south west England, up through Wales, northern England and into eastern Scotland. That is bringing cloud and outbreaks of rain, but areas to the north west and south east of it are dry. Through the day the area of showery rain moves a fraction southeastwards but it won't make much progress. Central and south eastern England stay fine and warm. North western counties also have sunny spells but isolated showers are possible.

Temperatures this afternoon reach a very warm 25C (77F) in the south east but it will be much cooler in the wet areas and the north west. See the rain and lightning radar for the latest view.

Meteo France Arpege, forecast rain, 16:00 BST Mon 3rd September

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Tonight the cloud and patchy rain edges slightly further southeastwards. Areas to the south east and north west remain dry and in the north it will be chilly.

Tomorrow the remnants of the disturbance brings cloudy skies to much of England and Wales, and there could still be some light rain or drizzle. Scotland, Northern Ireland and much of northern England also have sunny spells.

Meteo France Arpege, forecast cloud cover, 16:00 BST Tue 4th September

Low pressure threat

Wednesday is looking dry and bright in England and Wales. In Scotland and Northern Ireland there is an increasing risk of a cloud and rain as a small area of low pressure develops near Iceland and moves southeastwards. Temperatures will generally be close to the early September average.

Through the second half of the week it is expected to become quite unsettled. Low pressure deepens over the northern half of the UK and meanders around for several days. Heavy showery outbreaks of rain are possible in all regions, but especially central and northern parts of the UK. By the weekend high pressure probably builds across the southern half of the UK again. The north remains under a more changeable westerly air stream.

GFS, forecast pressure and rain, 16:00 BST Thu 6th September

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A good deal of dry weather is shown for much of the country during the next 16 days. Upper air temperatures often remain above the 30 year average. View latest GEFS.