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Tuesday starts mostly dry with variable amounts of cloud. This morning sunny spells develop but like yesterday there will be cloudy periods and scattered light showers. During the course of the day winds strengthen in the north west of the UK and thicker cloud brings an increasing risk of outbreaks of rain.

Maximum temperatures range from 16C (61F) in the north to a warm 26C (78F) in brighter parts of south and east England. See the rain and lightning radar for the latest view

DWD ICON, forecast rain, 16:00 BST Tue 21st August

Forecast short cuts

The month ahead - August

Winter 2018/19 weather

Tonight a band of rain pushes southeastwards across Scotland and Northern Ireland. England and Wales have another muggy night away with temperatures generally not falling much below 17C (63F).

Tomorrow the rain in the north slowly pushes southeastwards and it will be heavy at times. Cooler conditions follow on behind it in northern areas. The wet weather reaches central counties in the afternoon but the south eastern corner probably remains dry and very warm until the evening.

Hirlam, forecast rain, 16:00 BST Wed 22nd August

Cooler and more changeable

Early rain in the south east on Thursday clears away to leave brighter and fresher weather in all of the country. Heavy showers become widespread, although they probably will be more scattered in central southern and south eastern counties.

The cool and showery conditions continue on Friday. After a chilly start daytime temperatures peak at about 14C (57F) in Scotland and 19C (66F) in southern England, so it will be cool for the time of year. There is a possibility of a ground frost forming in northern regions during Friday night.

The cool weather continues on Saturday. Sunny spells are likely but there will be a lot of showers around too, however as is usually the case some places probably miss them and remain dry.

Sunday could be mostly dry and a little warmer in central and eastern Britain. Elsewhere cloud builds and outbreaks of rain push into Northern Ireland and possibly western Britain during the second half of the day.

At this stage it looks as though wet weather will spread eastwards on Bank Holiday Monday. Clearer and showery conditions probably follow on from the west but the timing is uncertain.

GFS, forecast surface pressure, 10:00 BST Mon 27th August

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16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

A mixed outlook is shown. After a warm start cooler air spreads southwards across all regions but it warms up again during the last days of August and early September. View latest GEFS.