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Monday begins fine in much of the UK but it is wet in Northern Ireland and western Scotland. Outbreaks of rain continue in the north west today but they are expected to gradually become patchier. England and Wales have spells of warm sunshine but in the afternoon thundery showers break out in the south. The showers are likely to be scattered with many places remaining dry.

Temperatures this afternoon range from 12C (54F) in the north west to 24C (75F) in the south. See the rain radar for the latest view.

HIRLAM, forecast precipitation, 16:00 BST Mon 21st May

Tonight some rain remains in Scotland. Elsewhere it becomes mostly dry as the showers in the south fade away.

Tomorrow the southern half of the UK has warm and sunny periods but thundery showers bubble up again. The north will be mostly dry and bright, although patchy rain may continue in the north of Scotland.

Mid week shower risk uncertain

Little changes through the middle of the week. A lot of fine and warm weather is expected but the risk of thunderstorms continues in the south. There is uncertainty about how widespread they will be but many places should miss them. Nonetheless localised downpours are possible.

GFS, forecast pressure and precipitation,19:00 BST Wed 23rd May

As we head towards the Bank Holiday weekend high pressure remains centred to the north of the UK. There are signs of even warmer upper level air being imported from southern Europe so temperatures could climb. However with pressure remaining low over France there will be an ongoing chance of showers.

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16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

Warm weather continues for the rest of May but by early June upper temperatures dip back towards the 30 year average. Some showery rain is shown but much of the period is expected to be dry. View latest GEFS.