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Tuesday starts wet in much of the north and west of the UK. Through the day the rain slowly edges southeastwards into northern England and Wales with showery conditions following on behind. Central and south eastern parts of England have a fine day.

Temperatures range from 11C (52F) in the wet areas to a warm 18C (64F) in the south east. See the rainfall and precipitation type radar for the latest view.

ICON 00z, forecast rainfall, 16:00 BST Tue 17th April

Tonight the rain becomes confined to Wales and western England but elsewhere it stays dry. The north has quite a chilly night but in the south it will be muggy.

Tomorrow high pressure centred over the near continent will be feeding in very warm air from the southeast. In the north west there is likely to be quite a lot of cloud but elsewhere but elsewhere warm periods of sunshine develop. Temperatures over much of central and eastern Britain exceed 21C (70F).

The heat builds

The fine spell continues on Thursday and temperatures rise further. There is a chance of 27C (81F) being reached in the south east but it won't be as toasty in the north and west. All regions should remain dry and have a good deal of sunshine.

The GFS chart below shows forecast air temperatures at about 1500m above sea level on Thursday. In the south values are over 10C above the average for the time of year. The air over Northern Ireland and western Scotland is cooler as more of an Atlantic influence remains.

GFS 00z, forecast 850hPa temperatures, 16:00 BST Thu 19th April

The early taste of summer continues on Friday but there is a risk of isolated thunderstorms breaking out in the south. Subtle changes will be taking place and cooler air from the Atlantic probably pushes over the far north of the UK and brings a risk of showers.

Barbecue weekend?

On Saturday the fine weather is expected to continue in most areas. The warm air mass could actually filter further north again and that may be the trigger for a few hefty showers in northern areas. Temperatures widely climb to around 21C (70F) so it is looking promising for an early season barbecue.    

GFS 00z, forecast pressure and precipitation, 16:00 BST Sat 21st April

By Sunday things become more complicated. The risk of heavy showery rain probably spreads eastwards, however much of the southern half of the UK could remain fine and warm.

Cooler and changeable next week

Early next week it may be mostly dry and quite warm in the south but the north has more changeable and cooler conditions. During the course of the week the risk of showers or longer spells of rain is expected to extend southwards.

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16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

Warmer and drier conditions develop early next week. After April 21st temperatures trend downwards and the chance of changeable weather returning increases. View latest GEFS.