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Tuesday begins wet across large parts of the UK but it is dry in the far north. Through the day heavy rain pushes northwards into Scotland and Northern Ireland. In much of England and Wales drier and brighter conditions return but during the afternoon heavy showers develop in central southern and southwestern areas.

ICON 00z, forecast precipitation, 16:00 BST Tues 10th April

Maximum temperatures range from 6C (43F) in the wet areas to 16C (61F) in brighter parts of the south. See the rainfall and precipitation type radar for the latest view.

Tonight the bands of wet weather in the south and north clear away. Towards the end of the night another batch of rain could reach the south eastern corner.

Tomorrow showery rain pushes westwards across southern and central areas but the north should be dry. It will be cold near the east coast and in wet areas, but in sunny spells temperatures quickly rise.

Changeable towards the weekend

The changeable theme continues during the second half of the week. The day to day forecast details vary but showery spells of rain are likely. Near the east coast it stays raw but in the south and west it becomes quite warm in sunny spells.

GFS 00z, forecast surface pressure and precipitation, 16:00 BST Thu 12th April

Warmer and drier next week?

Computer models continue to suggest an increasing chance of drier and warmer weather next week. The combination of high pressure to the east and low pressure in the Atlantic could lead to a plume of warm air pushing up from southern Europe.

There is uncertainty and if the high pressure becomes centred further east the UK could remain under a changeable southwesterly flow. In general terms the chance of warm and dry periods is highest in eastern Britain with rain more likely in Northern Ireland and the west.

The GFS 00z chart below for Wednesday 18th shows one possibility. The UK is sandwiched between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west, and a plume of warm air is moving northwards. Daytime temperatures of 21C (70F) or even a little higher would be on the menu for much of the country.

GFS 00z, forecast 850hPa temperatures and surface pressure, 16:00 BST Wed 18th April

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16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

A changeable outlook is shown with the wettest conditions in the southern half of the UK during the first half of the period. There is a bias for above average upper air temperatures to continue for much of the time. Despite that it remains chilly in the east and north east for much of the time due to an easterly flow. View latest GEFS.