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Saturday starts overcast in much of the UK and it is less cold than recently. There will be a lot of cloud during the rest of the day but a few brighter spells are likely. In northern Scotland outbreaks of rain develop and they slowly edge southwards this afternoon.

Maximum temperatures range from 5C (41F) in Scotland to 8C (46F) in the south west. See the rainfall and precipitation type radar for the latest view.

Tonight patchy outbreaks of rain spread southwards. In the north it becomes drier and some clear spells form.

Tomorrow should be mostly dry with variable amounts of cloud. Temperatures will be close to the early December average.

Mixed bag next week

Monday will be mostly dry with variable amounts of cloud but in the northwest there could be some rain. By Tuesday winds strengthen in the north and persistent spells of rain push into western Scotland. Elsewhere it remains dry.

Things begin to change on Wednesday. An area of low pressure deepens to the west of the UK and moves eastwards. There is uncertainty about its track but a period of wet and windy weather is forecast in all regions. As it pulls away colder air returns from the north so there is a risk of rain turning to snow on its back edge. 

The GFS 00z forecast chart below shows rain turning to snow on Thursday as colder air pushes down from the northwest. Conditions are expected to be marginal and precipitation is often quite poorly handled by computer models.

GFS 00z, 02 December, precipitation 12:00GMT Thu 7th December

After the wet weather clears cold and bright conditions return and probably last into the weekend. Wintry showers could become quite widespread for a time. During the following week temperatures may gradually recover but a changeable pattern is expected and there could be a risk of snow in the north.

A colder winter on the way?

The TWO winter forecast has been issued and suggests a colder and drier than average season. This year it has been particularly difficult to reach a conclusion. Buzz looks at the medium term. TWO's fourth winter discussion update has been issued. The winter forecast covering December, January and February will be issued this week.

Christmas countdown

TWO's annual Christmas Countdown continues.

16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

Colder conditions are shown returning this week. By the weekend it turns less cold and in the longer term there are signs of more changeable conditions. View latest GEFS.