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Saturday begins with showers in northern regions and there is some light rain in western Wales. Elsewhere it's mostly dry. Through the course of the day patchy outbreaks of rain move across southern areas and in places they could become quite heavy. Central regions remain mostly dry and the north has a mix of sunny spells and scattered showers. 

Temperatures range from 5C (41F) in Scotland to 11C (52F) in the south west. See the rainfall radar for the latest view.

Tonight the wet conditions in the south clear away although it could remain damp in the south west. Clear spells form and it will be cold with a frost forming quite widely by the morning.

Tomorrow starts bright but cloudier skies steadily push eastwards. The west has some light rain during the afternoon but elsewhere it remains dry and in eastern counties there will be some sunshine. During the evening and overnight persistent outbreaks of rain spread across much of the UK.

Unsettled early next week

Monday begins with weather fronts straddled across the UK as can be seen on the UK Met Office Fax chart. Pressure remains high over Greenland but the boundary between the cold Arctic air mass and mild subtropical one is pushing northwards so much of the UK will see temperatures reaching double figures. In the southern half of the UK values could reach a very mild 13C (55F).

Met Office Fax chart for 12GMT Monday 20th November

Risk of stormy weather?

The mild and unsettled spell continues through the middle part of the week but Scotland could remain colder. It is expected to be very windy at times in the southern half of the UK. This morning's GFS 00z model run shows the stormiest conditions on Thursday with wind gusts of around 75mph in Wales and the south west of England. However the forecast details are uncertain at this stage.

GFS 00z, 18th November, max wind gusts (mph) for 12GMT, Thurs 23rd November

Colder next weekend

By next weekend low pressure may be pulling away northeastwards into Scandinavia. That would allow cold air to return southwards with wintry showers in the north. If it develops the cold incursion looks set to be transitional with weather systems in the Atlantic bringing milder and wetter weather back from the west quite quickly.

TWO news

Buzz looks at the likelihood of unsettled weather. TWO's third winter discussion update, "Winter is coming" is online and the fourth update will be issued shortly.

Christmas countdown

TWO's annual Christmas Countdown continues.

16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

Changeable weather is shown. Rather mild conditions are favoured for a time next week but beyond that temperatures trend downwards towards the seasonal average. View latest GEFS.