This uses data from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS).
The GEFS is a version of the GFS model which is run 30 times with different starting conditions to account for uncertainty.
Tight clustering of the runs suggests a higher degree of confidence. A wide spread indicates a range of possible weather outcomes.
The upper plot shows forecast 850hPa temperatures which are approximately 1500m above sea level. They provide a way of checking how cold or warm the air mass is and aren't subject to diurnal (day to night) variation.
The lower plot shows forecast precipitation. The snow row displays the number of GEFS runs forecasting snow. This ranges from 0 to 33.
These are the temperatures we experience. The purple lines show the average maximum and minimum.
Mean Surface Level Pressure.
These are average wind speeds
Surface wind gust speeds. (10 day)
If your location isn't listed pick the nearest one. Ensemble forecasts are run at a lower resolution so the data covers a bigger geographical area.
Uses GEFS data with updates at 07:15 GMT, 13:15 GMT, 19:15 GMT, 01:15 GMT
Runs out to 16 days ahead
Winter 2023-24 forecast issued
Winter 2023-24 third update
A cold end to November with a risk of snow?
Bonfire Night 2023 weather
More stormy weather and flooding?
Daily weather by email
Key forecast charts
See the Model inventory for the full list of model charts and data