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UK outlook issued Sunday 15th October 2017
Unsettled. Stormy in the north and west early on and possibly in the south during the second half of the week.
Monday: Stormy conditions affect western parts of the UK as the remnants of Hurricane Ophelia move northwards. Wind gusts of 70mph to 80mph are expected to bring disruption to Northern Ireland and western parts of the UK. Heavy outbreaks of rain affect the north west. In the south and east winds won't be as strong and it will be very warm with temperatures possibly reaching an unseasonable 25C (77F).
Tuesday: Strong winds in the north gradually ease. A good deal of dry and bright weather is likely but in the far north outbreaks of rain continue. Wet weather could also push into southern counties. It will be much cooler in the south than during recent days.
Wednesday: Wet weather in the south pushes northwards and at times the rain will be heavy. Scotland and Northern Ireland may stay mostly dry.
Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday: Unsettled weather continues. Heavy outbreaks of rain are forecast in all areas and there is the potential for it to become very windy at times, especially in the southern half of the UK. Rather cool.
Forecast confidence is moderate throughout the week.
Predominantly unsettled conditions continue, so all regions have rain at times. It could become very windy, especially in the north and west. There will be drier spells too with the best of them in the south and east. Temperatures should generally be close to the late October average.
Forecast confidence is moderate.
At the start of the forecast period the remnants of Hurricane Ophelia track northwards close to the west of the UK. Despite weakening Ophelia will remain a potent storm and it brings the likelihood of disruption to western areas. To the east exceptionally warm air for the time of year will be pulled up from the south. During the rest of the week areas of low pressure continue to move in from the Atlantic and they may track further south.
The second week sees Atlantic disturbances bringing quite unsettled weather. Ridges of high pressure may bring some drier intervals to the southern half of the UK.
Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis
The GFS is the computer model on which we base our 16 day weather forecasts.
The remnants of Hurricane Ophelia bring stormy conditions on Monday. Disruptive winds are expected in the west of the UK.
For a huge range of data see the chart viewer which provides output from the Arpege, Arome, CFSv2, GEM, GFS, GEFS, ECM, WW3, Arpege, Arome and Fax models and works on PCs, tablet computers such as the iPad and smartphones.
The 14 day UK weather forecast is updated twice weekly.
Use the place of postcode selector at the top of this page for the local weather forecast. The links below are to discussion and long range outlooks.
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