WX charts - only 'subtle changes' (to borrow a phrase from BBC weather forecasters) over the next two weeks. Freezing conditions continue over Scandinavia and points E and SE of there, and the N-S banding noted yesterday also continues, W Europe a little below norm, C Europe considerably above, and Urals E-wards much below. If anything week 1 has colder weather for Britain with not quite as cold for Germany/Poland, the situation reversing in week 2. Pptn pattern has shifted somewhat - week 1 heavy for Atlantic coastal countries esp N Spain and S England, less in the Med than shown yesterday, week 2 the pptn retreats into the Atlantic only affecting NW Spain and SW Ireland, while more appears in the E Med, ut the only really dry area is the Baltic.

GFS Op - Fri 23rd LP with cold core 965mb S Iceland with Britain in its circulation and cool/cold NW-lies; Sun 25th this has stalled as it comes up against Russian HP and filled leaving Britain with local shallow LPs (Shetland, N Sea, Cornwall ca 995mb) ; Tue 27th, the last of these has deepened and moved S to Spain as ridge of HP from SW follows; Fri 1st, trough to W of Ireland 995mb again deepening and running down to Spain; Wed 6th HP coming from the north covers Britain 1030mb to see out the sequence, while Arctic air floods into C Europe.

ECM - Sun 25th, the Cornish LP is deeper 990mb before moving away; Tue 27th HP more transient; Fri 1st not so much a trough as defined LP 985mb N Ireland, and that then retreating N-wards .

GEFS - mean temps soon dropping to a little below norm and then from around the end of the month a little above norm, quite good clustering of ens members around the mean until later on (say, Wed 6th) when some big swings. Rain most likely during the next 5 or 6 days (but very little of this in Scotland and NE England), then again around Sun 3rd (the far NE escapes this too) but England never really dry. 

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Beginning to look like Saturday could be quite wet in the south - rain will be mounting up

Beginning to look like Saturday could be quite wet in the south - rain will be mounting up

more likely Sunday based on forecasts I've seen.

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more likely Sunday based on forecasts I've seen.

looking at the charts there could be a decent convective period for Saturday as well. 
To be honest just looks wet this weekend !

GFS 12Z is showing some snow shading in the heavier ppn tomorrow and Friday across the south, and not just over the high ground.

https://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2024022112/54-779.GIF?21-12 

Not sure I believe that but I suppose it could be a bit sleety?

Arpege has much lighter ppn and much milder 850s.

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If ECM has it's way, Sundays rain could miss the south altogether.

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looking at the charts there could be a decent convective period for Saturday as well. 
To be honest just looks wet this weekend !

Saturday looks showery but there's a real deluge Sunday into Monday for anywhere S of Birmingham.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/rainfall-radar-forecast-map# 


Synoptics are perfect for a memorable blizzard, FAX has the classic channel low, but temps need to be about 4C cooler. If only ...

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GFS 12Z is showing some snow shading in the heavier ppn tomorrow and Friday across the south, and not just over the high ground.

https://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2024022112/54-779.GIF?21-12 

Not sure I believe that but I suppose it could be a bit sleety?

Arpege has much lighter ppn and much milder 850s.

It does that multiple times every winter. Fortunately it’s virtually always rubbish 

Looks wet, but on the VERY bright side we are a week closer to no chance of cold and snow, and that’s what is really amazing about our climate. 

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The 0z GFS really ramps up the winds down here as the cold front passes through this afternoon/evening.

It has a 5C temperature drop in an hour to go along with 38 gusting to 59mph winds - a gnat's whisker away from a gale, in other words.

MetO is much less bullish, instead with a 2C drop in an hour and winds of 24 gusting to 36.

Arpege/Arome etc are between the two.

It's very unusual for GFS and MetO to be so far apart that there's not even any overlap between the two options!

It's also mentioned in the MetO warning down here, with gusts up to 70mph possible:

A band of heavy, squally rain in expected to move eastwards across England on Thursday with gusts of around 50 mph in a few places very briefly, as well as some hail and thunder. However, there is a small chance of a broader swathe of very strong winds affecting southern and eastern England with gusts of 60 to 70 mph, mostly likely close to English Channel and southern North Sea coasts.

I will, as usual, be hoping that squall line breaks up a bit by the time it gets here... it's those massively out-of-whack gusts which cause the damage, I've noticed.

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I will, as usual, be hoping that squall line breaks up a bit by the time it gets here... it's those massively out-of-whack gusts which cause the damage, I've noticed.

Gust energy obeys, at least approximately, a square law; e.g. 70 mph compared to 50 mph is as 49 to 25, i.e. double the effect.
59 compared to 38 gives a multiplier of 2.4.

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The 0z GFS really ramps up the winds down here as the cold front passes through this afternoon/evening.

It has a 5C temperature drop in an hour to go along with 38 gusting to 59mph winds - a gnat's whisker away from a gale, in other words.

MetO is much less bullish, instead with a 2C drop in an hour and winds of 24 gusting to 36.

Arpege/Arome etc are between the two.

It's very unusual for GFS and MetO to be so far apart that there's not even any overlap between the two options!

It's also mentioned in the MetO warning down here, with gusts up to 70mph possible:

A band of heavy, squally rain in expected to move eastwards across England on Thursday with gusts of around 50 mph in a few places very briefly, as well as some hail and thunder. However, there is a small chance of a broader swathe of very strong winds affecting southern and eastern England with gusts of 60 to 70 mph, mostly likely close to English Channel and southern North Sea coasts.

I will, as usual, be hoping that squall line breaks up a bit by the time it gets here... it's those massively out-of-whack gusts which cause the damage, I've noticed.

This is another test for the models we can watch with interest as it plays out: With the modelled cold snap, the GFS stood alone with Pete Tong and was proved right (inevitably it felt for coldies), but this divergence related to the degree of cyclo-genesis is very interesting indeed. My money is on the GFS after this year, whereas in the past the Meto has always for me been more consistent and steady, even if new trends were spotted by the GFS first.

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So in a few spots could be quite dangerous later. Wonder if it will warrant an amber/red warning. If a drop of 5 degrees there must be a sharp squall line, isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. As ever eyes on the radar

Plenty of excitement today as squall lines introduce colder weather - but for a longer term outlook ...

WX temp charts show the freezing area reducing to N Scandinavia and Russia, clearing the Baltic, and although W Europe is cool in week 1, it looks milder in week 2 and will probably join E Europe in having temps above norm. Heavy rain in week 1 for Britain- France -Italy, reducing to N Scotland and separately S England - France in week 2, plus some in Turkey leaving most of Europe fairly dry.

GFS Op - LP 960mb Iceland pushing a trough well south across Britain today, the whole system filling and moving E-wards but not before generating another Channel Low 980mb Sun 25th. Some rise of pressure with zonal winds for a while, then a repeat with LP Fri 1st 980mb Scotland with trough reaching the far south, and again a hang-back Sun 5th with LP 990mb E Anglia while the rest of the system moves east. After that the pressure rise is firmer and covers Britain 1035mb Fri 8th.

ECM - Remarkably like GFS, though the weekend LP is placed N England and a day earlier i.e. Sat 24th.

GEFS - temps dropping to norm cool until Tue 27th then mean at or above norm to Sat 9th, with if anything milder around Thu 28th and Sun 5th as a group led by op and control are above mean but in N Scotland unpredictable after Fri 1st. Rain from time to time, esp heavy in S & W this week and again near Thu 2nd , but quite dry in N & E. Many ens members in the S generally drier towards end of 1st week of March, but wetter in N. Difficult to pick out a clear pattern.

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Gust energy obeys, at least approximately, a square law; e.g. 70 mph compared to 50 mph is as 49 to 25, i.e. double the effect.
59 compared to 38 gives a multiplier of 2.4.

And when you consider the power, it's a cubed relationship

If you think of the air as a stream of packets on a conveyor belt, with individual packets going at X speed, and thus each packet having an energy of X squared, then any obstacle in the way also gets hit by X of these more energetic packets in the same time

And that's why I'm glad I went for a hit'n'miss fence

 

Well I didn't notice anything squally today, and the rain has mostly passed through. Did I miss it or did it not happen?

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Well I didn't notice anything squally today, and the rain has mostly passed through. Did I miss it or did it not happen?

Going by the radar the squall line did not develop. Might be some slight sting in the tail for the south east coast as the system pulls away. Retron alluded to the difference of wind speed from some models this morning. 

Well I didn't notice anything squally today, and the rain has mostly passed through. Did I miss it or did it not happen?

It was squally here for a short time.

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Well I didn't notice anything squally today, and the rain has mostly passed through. Did I miss it or did it not happen?

Nothing squally here in Sheffield early today, when it was forecast, just normal, quite heavy rain, with relatively light winds. There was torrential showery rain this afternoon, not shown at this intensity on the radar images, but no strong winds (and no thunder either).

Having said that, as Brian said, the rain was squally in Berkhamsted area for a short time. There was also quite strong, widespread thunder activity over southern N Sea this afternoon, extending into Belgium and northern France, plus isolated thunder over E coast of E Anglia.

It was here on the e Sussex coast  mainly around 3 to 4 pm short period of very heavy rain and gusty winds then a sharp drop.in temp afterwards 

Potential for quite a wet afternoon in the SE Saturday which is not needed especially if it becomes convective in nature. Hopefully will miss