Great posts -a most interesting discussion. Needs a fire and a glass of Laffroaig with just a dash of water! Do you think Jan 1987 was also precipitated by a SSW?

This year is peculiar, and there are some significant factors at play perhaps - the strong ElNino (can’t remember there being one since the almost frostless winter of 1989; and the methane leak from that oil well drilling maybe! Who knows what else !! Anyway on the models - there seems to be an extended polar maritime dominated period of rather cold and blustery spring weather - most unpleasant for
man, dog and beasts, but good reservoir and aquifer fillers in one of our driest months of the year - may be a little snow on highest hills for the bravest rambler !!

We had a strong El Nino during the 2015/16 winter which was similar in nature to this one. There was also one at the back end of 1997 and the first few months of 1998 too which was another very mild winter in this country.

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Great posts -a most interesting discussion. Needs a fire and a glass of Laffroaig with just a dash of water! Do you think Jan 1987 was also precipitated by a SSW?

This year is peculiar, and there are some significant factors at play perhaps - the strong ElNino (can’t remember there being one since the almost frostless winter of 1989; and the methane leak from that oil well drilling maybe! Who knows what else !! Anyway on the models - there seems to be an extended polar maritime dominated period of rather cold and blustery spring weather - most unpleasant for
man, dog and beasts, but good reservoir and aquifer fillers in one of our driest months of the year - may be a little snow on highest hills for the bravest rambler !!

The ssw of January of 1987 occurred on 21/22nd of the month. Whether the Scandinavian high/ Arctic high which brought about the infamous beast from the east was a precursor to the warming, I do not know, but the development of the oncoming beast from the east looks to have been completely trop lead. One of the rare occasions where such a potent cold spell not backed up by strat forcing. I can only assume that the trop and strat were not coupled at that time.
The last super strong El Nino was in 2015/16 which was to my recollection a very mild winter. 

Suddenly a bit more interest in the 12z GFS 

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yes starting look a bit better for us coldies at least it will give us something to keep an eye on to see how it all pans out .

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965mb Isle of Wight midnight Sat into Sun and possibly cold enough for snow.

Have I done the redtops an injustice?

Maybe not - this intense local feature has disappeared from the 12z though a rather cold LP 980mb covering Britain more generally

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WX charts showing more of Europe close to norm, still some warmth in the east; in absolute terms the freezing weather is staying to the north of a line east from the Baltic, but slowly cooling as well elsewhere, with particular areas of such cool weather showing up e.g the Highlands, N Spain, S Germany. Heavy rain in week 1 from Britain down through France to Italy; in week 2 Europe is generally damp but the heavy stuff is reserved for the Pyrenees, Italy and Greece.

GFS Op - zonal W-lies and fairly mild to start with, then from Thu 22nd LP dips down to 955mb Fair Isle with a cold core affecting Scotland and strong polar  maritime NW-lies elsewhere. This slowly moves off NE-wards, not filling by much, and bringing a secondary LP from near Iceland with a cold pool down to N France 975mb with E-lies setting in Mon 26th. This LP drifts off SE-wards but pressure rises only a little afterwards, and a new LP 980mb passes E-wards across Scotland Sat 2nd before HP moves in from the SW (mild and dry?) to cover Britain 1035mb Wed 6th.

ECM - similar to GFS but the LP in N France is shallower at 995mb, and there is a pressure rise to follow, though  by end of run Thu 29th pressure is dropping and polar maritime NW-lies are again threatening.

FAX keeps the main LP anchored N of Scotland from Wed 21st with a complex of fronts crossing Britain over the next 48 hours

GEFS - any mildness disappearing by Thu 22nd and then the mean stays near or a little below norm to Wed 6th with quite good support from ens members (just a chance of a mild burst one day only Mon 26th). Rain from Thu 2nd for a week, heavy and persistent in S & W, patchy in N & E, lighter after that but by no means dry. Snow row figures consistently high at Inverness, occasionally high elsewhere in Scotland.

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Looking rather unpleasant for us in the UK but some welcome snow appearing for the Alps at last.

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Looking rather unpleasant for us in the UK but some welcome snow appearing for the Alps at last.

Basically as unpleasant as it could be in the South for the start of Spring. Even cold fans don't like driving cold rain especially when winter has finished!

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Looking at the 06z ensemble suite, there's a remarkably strong signal for a switch to be thrown taking us from mild weather, which will dominate for the first part of this week, to something below average; the transition starting on Thursday; the 850hPa temps fall by typically 7-8c.  The signal then weakens again towards the latter stages of the run - unsurprisingly.

Several cold runs in the suite but daytime maxima not desperately cold, reflecting that we're at the tail end of winter.

ECM ensemble mean 10hPa wind forecast shows winds reversing in the first week of March and remaining that way for the rest of the month.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202402180000 
 

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Poor old Model Output Thread. 

Relegated to the 2nd page, not one single post on an evening in mid February. 

Oh how the mighty have fallen. Ecm puts the boot in.   https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0 

See you next year old friend. 

Poor old Model Output Thread. 

Relegated to the 2nd page, not one single post on an evening in mid February. 

Oh how the mighty have fallen. Ecm puts the boot in.   https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0 

See you next year old friend. 

It’s surprisingly quiet, since there’s a lot of interest in the output, even if not much encouragement for a decent cold spell.

Today’s update of the ECM ensemble 10hPa winds shows a more marked reversal kicking in two weeks from now and lasting for 3 weeks.  Hard to believe it won’t have any effect at all, but as always there’s no guarantee.

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Yes - quiet - pub run not exactly helping much, but agree, there is a lot of potential. I guess this is has been another “nearly, but never going to verify winter” - though for any Codge like ‘Mildiies’ the relentless record mildness and record wetness are notable, if just about as depressing for ‘coldies’,  as a Trump election victory, and the pervading inevitability of a Putin victory in the face of western complacency to the Ukraine need for funds and weapons - would be - to anyone sane and who treasured world cooperation and democracy!! 

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WX charts show, with respect to average, N-s banding with W Europe cool, mid Europe from Finland to Greece well above norm (which doesn't prevent Finland being freezing), very cold Urals and E-wards. In absolute terms, the freezing area extends from S Scandinavia to the Caspian, random patches of cooler weather in Europe in week 1, these becoming less prevalent in week 2. Pptn in week 1 Norway - Britain - France - W Med, rotating slightly in week 2 Britain - France - W and E Med.

GFS Op - current mild SW-lies going backing NW-ly by Fri 23rd under control of LP 950mb Fair Isle with trough extending S covering Britain, filling and moving S to 1000mb Cornwall Mon 26th and so on to Balearics. Slight rise of pressure behind not lasting as new LP sets up W of Ireland 985mb Fri 1st with general SW-lies. This hangs around, sometimes closer, sometimes further away, and then there's a repeat with part of this sliding away S-wards, slight rise of pressure, new LP this time Rockall Thu 7th 985mb.

ECM - takes the LP Fri 23rd closer to Norway but Britain still under cold NW-lies. The LP over S England Mon 26th derives from a secondary in the NW-ly flow (a distinction without a difference?) but the pressure rise is stronger to follow. The new LP Fri 1st comes in from the N, not the W, and is positioned 975mb N Sea with NW-lies not SW-lies.

GEFS - end of mild weather Thu 22nd, sharp drop to norm or a little below, edging up slightly towards Thu 7th, ens members mostly clustered around the mean.  Rain heavy and frequent over the next week and again around Mon 4th in the S and W, smaller amounts and more spread out in N & E, but no prolonged spell of dry weather. Snow row figures which were quite high for Inverness yesterday have halved.
 

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It’s surprisingly quiet, since there’s a lot of interest in the output, even if not much encouragement for a decent cold spell.

Today’s update of the ECM ensemble 10hPa winds shows a more marked reversal kicking in two weeks from now and lasting for 3 weeks.  Hard to believe it won’t have any effect at all, but as always there’s no guarantee.

It looks like it will have an effect, dragging the early March mean down to below average leading to spells of cold  wet weather - hence the lack of interest as nobody likes that - do they?

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It looks like it will have an effect, dragging the early March mean down to below average leading to spells of cold  wet weather - hence the lack of interest as nobody likes that - do they?

You know I do, I'll take cold weather whenever I can - especially as it's so rare these days.

Regarding the SSW:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202402190000 

Although it shows the vortex regrouping a bit by the end, I do wonder if we might see an early final warming this year!
 

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You know I do, I'll take cold weather whenever I can - especially as it's so rare these days.

Regarding the SSW:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202402190000 

Although it shows the vortex regrouping a bit by the end, I do wonder if we might see an early final warming this year!
 

Definitely looking like an early warming this year.  I think 2016 had one at a similar time so not unprecedented. 
 

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Definitely looking like an early warming this year.  I think 2016 had one at a similar time so not unprecedented. 
 

No, but the forecast ensemble mean dips well below the 90th percentile; I’d guess down around the 95th, so pretty rare.  Indeed a cluster of runs look to be down around the very bottom of the spread, if not beyond.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202402190000 

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Very little confidence in gfs strat forecasts but the 12z profile were it to be anywhere near accurate would certainly perk my interest going through March. I known its not winter but it would could still pack a punch if the strat forcing delivered the right synoptics. Should get a better idea over the next week whether anything noteworthy is on the horizon, if not then like many others my attention will be drawn to warmer settled weather.  

You know I do, I'll take cold weather whenever I can - especially as it's so rare these days.

Regarding the SSW:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202402190000 

Although it shows the vortex regrouping a bit by the end, I do wonder if we might see an early final warming this year!
 

I know you like cold frosty weather and snow and don't like it hot/warm but hadn't realised you liked cold rain and gales.

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I know you like cold frosty weather and snow and don't like it hot/warm but hadn't realised you liked cold rain and gales.

I don't like gales, but don't mind cold rain - even if it's a bit frustrating that a degree or two lower might have brought snow instead. It's very rare you get both together, FWIW!

(The reason is that gales tend to imply a raging jet nearby, which inevitably means SW'lies and a mild airmass being involved. All the spells of strong winds this winter have followed this pattern, with a surge of mild air accompanying the rain, followed by colder air as the system pulls away and winds ease).

 

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