Humdinger of an end to the GEM.

And the 12Z GFS control is about as good as you could wish for for an early March hit.
A little bit (a smudge) of interest creeping in now across the suites.

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18z GFS ENS show an Interesting (Suddenly out of no where) - snow spikes appearing for Exeter, Devon on 1st March: -  Don't know where this all came from!?

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12z GFS Ensembles shows an upgrade in snow spikes for Exeter on 1st March average of 4.5cm: - Can't be right surely!?

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12z GFS Ensembles shows an upgrade in snow spikes for Exeter on 1st March average of 4.5cm: - Can't be right surely!?

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Probably the algorithm wetter use for snow depth. Meteociel show this 
https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=192&y=175&run=12&runpara=0&type=11&ext=1 

So most likely a sleety mix at best would be my guess. 

Probably the algorithm wetter use for snow depth. Meteociel show this 
https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=192&y=175&run=12&runpara=0&type=11&ext=1 

So most likely a sleety mix at best would be my guess. 

Is that for Exeter? My guess is a sleety mix/ hail and soft hail maybe wet flakes if precipitation is heavy enough but will see...

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Annoying set up for March hoping for spring warmth, high setting up perfectly for colder weather

Probably the algorithm wetter use for snow depth. Meteociel show this 
https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=192&y=175&run=12&runpara=0&type=11&ext=1 

So most likely a sleety mix at best would be my guess. 

There are 2 different parameters which can be used for snow depth. The TWO ones use the "better" one:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=snowdepth_short_&lglocation=London&charthour=006&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM) 

 

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The SW snow threat seems nailed on now, albeit a high-ground threat, but the FI easterly threat has receded - now modelled by the GFS 0Z to be defected up to Shetland.  Not many GFS pert’s show this outcome now, so another Norwegian Blue it would seem for a brief late widespread cold, frosty and snowy episode - perhaps.

I am now beginning to hear the faint singing of a curvaceous woman, for this winter - at least for southern and eastern regions.

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Just pert 15 keeps the dream alive - just for fun: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&time=384&run=0&lid=P15&h=0&tr=6&mv=0 
although, Ps 3,5,7, 15, 16 and 19 show a nearly situation too.

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can't believe even now people are chasing cold ! in the new Era it's unlikely in winter and for most unwanted in spring.
 

WX minimally different from yesterday: in week 1 cool for W Europe even if the Baltic is outside the freezing area for the first time in a while. In week 2, the colder weather over Russia moves W again, with a band of quite cold weather Scotland - Denmark - Belarus in advance of this, not that the rest of Europe is that warm. Pptn in week 1 as before Britain - France - Italy and in week 2 slipping S-wards but still affecting SW England and Ireland. The very dry area in week 2 referred to yesterday now restricted to Poland - Norway.

GFS Op - current trough moving SE-wards and settling as LP centred over Britain by Sunday, with more troughs following from the NW. Then from Tue 5th to Fri 8th to Britain sandwiched between LP W of Ireland and HP in Norway and C Europe -a toss-up as to which will be dominant but wind generally S-ly. The LP then extends a trough to Biscay, winds backing SE-ly, before that trough moves north 980mb Ireland Sun 10th and rotates dumb-bell fashion with another LP 975mb Brittany Tue 12th. The LP complex retreats to the Atlantic and Thu 14th it's back to the LP/HP divide of the previous week. 

ECM agrees; if anything the HP from Tue 5th is closer to Britain

GEFS - mean temp never far from norm - on the cool side to Tue 5th, on the mild side to Tue 12th (esp in S) by matter of a couple of degrees, and little ens agreement after that. Rain mostly early and late in the next fortnight but never really dry; similar pattern for all but with heaviest rain in S & W. Briefly high chances of snow in the north today/tomorrow.

 

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06z GFS Ensembles Show huge snow spike(s) for Exeter and Look at Okehampton on 1st March average of 6.5cm:

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06z GFS Ensembles Show huge snow spike(s) for Exeter and Look at Okehampton on 1st March average of 6.5cm:

Here's the TWO 06Z plot.

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Here's the TWO 06Z plot.

So about 2mm on the 1st then 🤣

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Now the ECM wants to tug at our heart strings. Seems to be enough motion in the ocean to keep one eye open for now.

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