WX for week 1 with the familiar pattern of freezing weather in Scandinavia and Russia, cool/cold in patches across W Europe, but a noticeable change in week 2 as the coldest weather withdraws E-wards leaving Scandinavia (except the Norwegian mountains) out of the freezing area. The rest of Europe except Spain becomes milder. Rain in week 1 for S & W Britain, France and Italy, very dry from the Black Sea NE-wards; in week 2 rain for Spain and Greece but a very large dry area (something not seen for a long time) covering all of Europe from Britain to the Caspian.

GFS Op - current LP to the N but with trough covering Britain withdraws well to NE by Mon 26th but leaving a local LP 985mb Brittany. This moves to Spain while further N, pressure rises and there is a spell of zonal mainly W-ly winds before another trough moves in from the NW Fri 1st (995mb N Wales and Cornwall). This too resolves into an LP moving S-wards before a major rise of pressure with HP for the following week in a broad area from Britain to Kazakhstan, attaining 1040mb S Norway by Wed 6th.

ECM - similar to GFS until end of run when the major pressure rise is less convincing; on Mon 4th there is a deeper depression 965mb SE of Greenland not present on GFS.

FAX - has the weekend LP 977mb in the western Channel Sun 25th before moving it to Corsica

GEFS - temps near norm at first, mild around Thu 29th before a sharp dip; then mean near norm but with a wide spread of ens members up to 10C on either side. Rain for the S over the weekend, some but not much around Fri 1st more generally, after that only isolated instances in individual runs (except the far NW where it's always exposed to the Atlantic)

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Potential for quite a wet afternoon in the SE Saturday which is not needed especially if it becomes convective in nature. Hopefully will miss

MetO going for a showery Saturday with the really heavy rain rolling E-wards up the Channel on Sunday

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Potential for quite a wet afternoon in the SE Saturday which is not needed especially if it becomes convective in nature. Hopefully will miss

...and beyond that, the usually conservative MetO raw is now showing 29 gusting to 45 here overnight Sunday into Monday, with much more in the way of rain. Could be some trees down with that, as sodden ground plus a strong wind from an unusual direction is good test of weaker trees!

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...and beyond that, the usually conservative MetO raw is now showing 29 gusting to 45 here overnight Sunday into Monday, with much more in the way of rain. Could be some trees down with that, as sodden ground plus a strong wind from an unusual direction is good test of weaker trees!

agreed Sunday/Monday look vile but interesting!

agreed Sunday/Monday look vile but interesting!

First signs of settled weather in the outlook on the 06z GFS Op, and in FI - it ends with an easterly (of sorts), albeit with no punch, cold source or possibility of anything wintry. However, bright and settled will be most welcome.

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First signs of settled weather in the outlook on the 06z GFS Op, and in FI - it ends with an easterly (of sorts), albeit with no punch, cold source or possibility of anything wintry. However, bright and settled will be most welcome.

let's hope this pattern cements and a nice dry spring early summer arrives. After a winter like this is it really fair to ridicule people calling winter is over in mid December?

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let's hope this pattern cements and a nice dry spring early summer arrives. After a winter like this is it really fair to ridicule people calling winter is over in mid December?

Yes, it's perfectly fair - no skill involved in that whatsoever. (Forecast a milder-than-average month for every month of the year and the likelihood is you'll get it right for the vast majority of the time).

Nobody knows what the weather will be like in 8 weeks' time either, no matter how convincing they may sound.

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Yes, it's perfectly fair - no skill involved in that whatsoever. (Forecast a milder-than-average month for every month of the year and the likelihood is you'll get it right for the vast majority of the time).

Nobody knows what the weather will be like in 8 weeks' time either, no matter how convincing they may sound.

It is often very hard to be that confident what the weather will be like in 8 days' time in this country, let alone 8 weeks. 😁

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It is often very hard to be that confident what the weather will be like in 8 days' time in this country, let alone 8 weeks. 😁

so right -but one straw for us to clutch is tonight’s pub run GFS op, and control, both showing a blocked and chilly easterly - probably max temps still about 8-10 degrees, but a good chance of bright skies, night frosts and a whole lot less wind!! Just a dunces chance of engaging some polar continental air- as a last tease!! Maybe! 

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let's hope this pattern cements and a nice dry spring early summer arrives. After a winter like this is it really fair to ridicule people calling winter is over in mid December?

Of course it is. Suggesting that winter is over after just two weeks is based on pure guesswork; or worse.  Anyway, winter isn’t just cold weather and never has been.

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so right -but one straw for us to clutch is tonight’s pub run GFS op, and control, both showing a blocked and chilly easterly - probably max temps still about 8-10 degrees, but a good chance of bright skies, night frosts and a whole lot less wind!! Just a dunces chance of engaging some polar continental air- as a last tease!! Maybe! 

The wind reversal in the stratosphere remains very solid in the ECM ensemble suite. The problem is that it will likely be mid-March before we seen any effects, whatever they might be.  But Alex Deakin has suggested it might bring about an early destruction of the polar vortex, 4-6 weeks earlier than normal.  It could be a ‘fun’ first half of spring….

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WX charts going back on yesterday's suggestion of milder weather. A little less cold in the southern Baltic, but not so for the whole area as was shown, and some very cold air on the northern horizon. Little change in temp for the rest of Europe over the two weeks; if anything Spain gets milder and N Britain stays colder. Pptn in week 1 as yesterday (Atlantic - Britain - France - Italy) but in week 2 the very dry area seen previously has shrunk down to Ukraine and - surprise! - heavy rain is back for Britain, with smaller areas in S Norway and the Alps.

GFS Op - current trough filling and moving east but leaving LP 985mb Brittany Mon 26th which then goes south. Briefly a spell of mostly W-ly  before new LP near Iceland Thu 29th 970mb extending a trough S-wards with NW-lies then developing into depression 990mb 30th Cumbria. That paves the way for a further trough from the NW, based on LP 975mb SW Iceland, and then there is a repeat as this moves E-wards and fills but with another local depression  forming 1000mb Ireland Sun 10th. 

ECM - mirrors GFS

GEFS - not so different from yesterday's projection. A lot of heavy rain for the S this weekend and then less intense but more general around Sat 2nd - however not dying away after that with small amounts of rain in many ens members to Sun 10th, and rather more in the NW near Wed 6th. Temps briefly milder Thu 29th then mean returns to norm, lots of scatter though perhaps a little less variation than previously; op & control both fancy something milder in the S around Wed 6th.

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The wind reversal in the stratosphere remains very solid in the ECM ensemble suite. The problem is that it will likely be mid-March before we seen any effects, whatever they might be.  But Alex Deakin has suggested it might bring about an early destruction of the polar vortex, 4-6 weeks earlier than normal.  It could be a ‘fun’ first half of spring….

Yes - I agree, and certainly there have been some spectacular historic late cold spells. I remember one around about 1975 or 76, when we had a dramatic snowfall in early April overnight, that deposited 4” of level deeply frozen snow overnight - over the whole of the SE. Of course it melted the next day in the sun, but it was spectacular. Similarly, more recently in 2004, (give or take), a March event brought a dramatic snowfall of 3-4” in Ipswich. It was proper frozen snow, at -3, and we sledged in Victoria Park. It did reach 5 degrees that day in the sunshine, and 60% of the snow melted, but it was a wonderful event nevertheless. I think both were an Arctic source, hence the intense cold. Both brief and transitory, but memorable. I wouldn’t say no. My current longing is for dryness, windlessness, and sunshine: Arctic air, some snow, would always be welcome old friends, as much as a laphroaig and an open wood fire.

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Yes - I agree, and certainly there have been some spectacular historic late cold spells. I remember one around about 1975 or 76, when we had a dramatic snowfall in early April overnight, that deposited 4” of level deeply frozen snow overnight - over the whole of the SE. Of course it melted the next day in the sun, but it was spectacular. Similarly, more recently in 2004, (give or take), a March event brought a dramatic snowfall of 3-4” in Ipswich. It was proper frozen snow, at -3, and we sledged in Victoria Park. It did reach 5 degrees that day in the sunshine, and 60% of the snow melted, but it was a wonderful event nevertheless. I think both were an Arctic source, hence the intense cold. Both brief and transitory, but memorable. I wouldn’t say no. My current longing is for dryness, windlessness, and sunshine: Arctic air, some snow, would always be welcome old friends, as much as a laphroaig and an open wood fire.

March 27th 1975 was memorable all day snowstorm onlaundy Thursday was only 9 then....the end of March 52 was extreme too for the South 

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It's the brevity of late-season snow that I find depressing.

All the miserable buggers rejoicing because the snow's gone. 

I'm a stuck record, but I want to see - just once in my life - a truly catastrophic snowfall. Talking upwards of 30cm nationwide, bringing the entire country to a standstill for a few weeks.

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It's the brevity of late-season snow that I find depressing.

All the miserable buggers rejoicing because the snow's gone. 

I'm a stuck record, but I want to see - just once in my life - a truly catastrophic snowfall. Talking upwards of 30cm nationwide, bringing the entire country to a standstill for a few weeks.

oh -yes indeed: that would be wonderful. Last ones I remember were 1978, 1979, ‘81, ‘85, ‘87, ‘91, ‘95 and then there’s been much lesser events, 2009, ‘10, ‘13,  and then The Beast! 2018. However, most affected one region or other more than most. Eg Feb 79 saw a
meter of snow in eastern East Anglia, but where I was back then - we had about 5”.  I guess the 1.5 degrees of warming whilst it would make snow a more rare event in southern lowland UK, the increased precip’ might make your dream possible if all the Synoptics so conspired ! Love to see it!!  

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GFS Pub run Op showing snowy spell [url=tel:+144 - 186]+144 - 186[/url] for Midlands, North and East Anglia.  Moreover - still a hint of a Scandi high at +240, although deflected  away from the UK before any cold advection reaches us. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/create_gif.php?model=GFS&member=OP&var=47&map=EU&run=18&speed=500×=0,6,12,18,24,30,36,42,48,54,60,66,72,78,84,90,96,102,108,114,120,126,132,138,144,150,156,162,168,174,180,186,192,198,204,210,216,222,228,234,240,246,252,258,264,270,276,282,288,294,300,306,312,318,324,330,336,342,348,354,360,366,372,378,384 
 

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WX temp predictions stuck in a groove; compared to long-term norm, W Europe incl Britain below, C Europe from Balkans to Finland above, Russia well below. This is overlain by the absolute temp values (NB these are not inconsistent with the foregoing) which show N Baltic across to Russia freezing, Med mild and warming up, rest of Europe in between with occasional colder patches (Scotland, Spain, the Alps). Rain in both weeks for Britain, France and down to Italy; a large very dry area N & E from Ukraine, even including Norway on the fringes.

MetO warnings for rain in SW and SE England  today - the MetO's own charts along with GFS suggest that the warning for the SE might be more apposite for central S, not that the SE will be dry. From about Oxford N-wards looks dry anyway.

GFS Op - LP 985mb in Channel today moving SE-wards into France and filling, followed by ridge of HP from SW only lasting to Thu 29th when LP 960mb Faeroes and trough with NW-lies covering Britain. This resolves into shallow (and cold) LP 1000mb N England Sat 2nd. This is superseded by troughs being pushed across Britain originating from LP S Iceland Sun 3rd, persisting to Wed 6th with S-ly winds but returning polar maritime so still cool. A portion of this trough breaks off to become LP 990mb S Ireland then sticks around S England, filling, 1000mb Mon 11th with E-lies off the N Sea but their source is SE Europe, not a really cold direction.

ECM - as GFS with variations; the LP Sat 2nd is deeper (990mb), colder and centred S Ireland; then by Wed 6th pressure is much higher over Britain (1030mb S England) and the Atlantic troughs have been suppressed.

GEFS - for the S, wet and cool now, briefly milder and drier before another cool and wet spell around Sat 2nd after which temps near norm and small amounts of rain at any time. Similar in the N but leaving out the present rain, more variation of ens members than in the S later on. Moderate chances of snow in Scotland Fri 1st, even a possibility (9/33) on the S Coast of England.

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Still some snow potential - albeit less than the pub run...on this mornings GFS Op. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/create_gif.php?model=GFS&member=OP&var=47&map=EU&run=00&speed=500×=0,6,12,18,24,30,36,42,48,54,60,66,72,78,84,90,96,102,108,114,120,126,132,138,144,150,156,162,168,174,180,186,192,198,204,210,216,222,228,234,240,246,252,258,264,270,276,282,288,294,300,306,312,318,324,330,336,342,348,354,360,366,372,378,384 

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Still some snow potential - albeit less than the pub run...on this mornings GFS Op. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/create_gif.php?model=GFS&member=OP&var=47&map=EU&run=00&speed=500×=0,6,12,18,24,30,36,42,48,54,60,66,72,78,84,90,96,102,108,114,120,126,132,138,144,150,156,162,168,174,180,186,192,198,204,210,216,222,228,234,240,246,252,258,264,270,276,282,288,294,300,306,312,318,324,330,336,342,348,354,360,366,372,378,384 

GFS 06z snow risk chart for Saturday 12z:  https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=150&mode=26&carte=3&proba=1&ext=0 
Essentially around 50% chance for lowland England south of a line from The Wash to Lincolnshire, up to above 75% for areas with elevation in North Wales & The Pennines northwards.

The distribution spread for SLP suggests a strong signal for a trough over us by the end of the week with 850hPa values below -5c:  about 75% probability, with about a 20% chance the trough will be over the southern North Sea.

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