WX charts - only 'subtle changes' (to borrow a phrase from BBC weather forecasters) over the next two weeks. Freezing conditions continue over Scandinavia and points E and SE of there, and the N-S banding noted yesterday also continues, W Europe a little below norm, C Europe considerably above, and Urals E-wards much below. If anything week 1 has colder weather for Britain with not quite as cold for Germany/Poland, the situation reversing in week 2. Pptn pattern has shifted somewhat - week 1 heavy for Atlantic coastal countries esp N Spain and S England, less in the Med than shown yesterday, week 2 the pptn retreats into the Atlantic only affecting NW Spain and SW Ireland, while more appears in the E Med, ut the only really dry area is the Baltic.
GFS Op - Fri 23rd LP with cold core 965mb S Iceland with Britain in its circulation and cool/cold NW-lies; Sun 25th this has stalled as it comes up against Russian HP and filled leaving Britain with local shallow LPs (Shetland, N Sea, Cornwall ca 995mb) ; Tue 27th, the last of these has deepened and moved S to Spain as ridge of HP from SW follows; Fri 1st, trough to W of Ireland 995mb again deepening and running down to Spain; Wed 6th HP coming from the north covers Britain 1030mb to see out the sequence, while Arctic air floods into C Europe.
ECM - Sun 25th, the Cornish LP is deeper 990mb before moving away; Tue 27th HP more transient; Fri 1st not so much a trough as defined LP 985mb N Ireland, and that then retreating N-wards .
GEFS - mean temps soon dropping to a little below norm and then from around the end of the month a little above norm, quite good clustering of ens members around the mean until later on (say, Wed 6th) when some big swings. Rain most likely during the next 5 or 6 days (but very little of this in Scotland and NE England), then again around Sun 3rd (the far NE escapes this too) but England never really dry.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl