You know when winters over , 3 days posts cover one page 😃! Looking at GEFS , average Feb weather arriving 22nd ish, well, for the north anyway.
As mentioned , a lot more rain on its ways, so,expect drought warnings by the end of April 😜
Anyone any idea of reservoir levels down south ? I would have thought they must be full . 

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Two weeks time you will have to travel to Smolensk before you hit low lying snow....winter is over.....

In two weeks time, winter will be over. But Spring snow is still possible.

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Anyone any idea of reservoir levels down south ? I would have thought they must be full . 

OTT for a moment - reservoir levels at https://www.southernwater.co.uk/water-for-life/reservoir-levels , 70-100% a week ago. Note that the level at Bewl Water is largely determined by the amount of pumping from the Medway - and the cost that Southern Water is prepared to bear. Groundwater levels near maximum and rising - flooding forecast if there's heavy rain to come https://sites.google.com/view/groundwatergraphs/home/groundwater-data 

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WX temp charts showing Danube Basin well above norm this week and east of the Urals well below. In absolute terms, week 1 freezing over W Russia and most of Scandinavia, mild for the rest of Europe. In week 2, slight expansion of this freezing area but losing the ultra-cold, while the rest of Europe cools down, particularly on an axis from N Britain to S Germany. Pptn for Atlantic coastal countries and over to the Adriatic, becoming heavier in the same areas in week 2 and extending to Romania & Turkey; Spain except the N fringe remains dry.

GFS Op - zonal W-lies between 1025mb S France and 975mb Iceland to Wed 20th (though with an embedded front in the more general HP giving England esp SE a lot of rain tonight). A controlling LP near Iceland then pushes cold NW-lies over Britain along with an assortment of troughs and secondary LPs until Mon 26th (notably 975mb Scotland Thu 21st, 990mb Cornwall Sat 24th). The main part of this complex slides off down to Italy but the cold NW-lies are back through to Thu 29th. Then a new Atlantic LP 965mb Fri 1st just W of Ireland with S-ly gales for England moving to Scotland 970mb Sat 2nd and stormy for all ('March comes in like a lion'?) before filling as the LP drifts south to England. 

ECM - similar to GFS though more troughs than secondaries in the period 23rd-26th; a suggestion of better weather Tue 27th with HP appearing to the SW (but still at some distance)

GEFS - the present fairly mild weather drops to norm Fri 22nd and stays there with some quite close clustering around the mean all the way to Mon 4th. Rain today/tomorrow for England, then widely wet from 22nd onwards, notably heavy in S & W. Occasional snow row figures here and there above 10, only Inverness consistently so.

 

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Winter definitely not over yet - probability of snow is! Some potentially very wet weather to come feeling cold in potentially strong winds. The worst kind of winter weather. Flooding strong possibility 

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Anyone any idea of reservoir levels down south ? I would have thought they must be full . 

The reservoir at Bough Beech is full, and groundwater levels are "Significantly above average".
https://seswater.co.uk/your-environment/rainfall-and-resources 

I couldn't find any information online about levels in the two reservoirs under the management of South East Water.

To include some on-topic content, the GEFS 0z is showing unsettled wet conditions for at least the next 10 days in this corner of the country, so the soggy winter looks like continuing, much to my frustration - I think there have been only a handful of days since the end of September when my garden has been dry enough to work in.

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I'm not looking forward to the last week of winter. It looks quite cold, but not cold enough so thoroughly miserable. 😠

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You know when winters over , 3 days posts cover one page 😃! Looking at GEFS , average Feb weather arriving 22nd ish, well, for the north anyway.
As mentioned , a lot more rain on its ways, so,expect drought warnings by the end of April 😜
Anyone any idea of reservoir levels down south ? I would have thought they must be full . 

Been keeping an eye on the 2 main reservoirs down here in the SW, one is now over 90% and the other is just over 80%, it's taken over a year to get to that point (from 45% this time last year) but the models are showing a lot more rain so I expect to see them both full by mid-March.  However it only takes 8 months of no rain to basically empty them.
 

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The rainfall signal from the GFS ensemble remains fairly consistent: the next 16 days has a mean for London of 60mm with the Op and Control at 80mm and 90mm.    The normal average for the whole of February is 35mm.
 

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Been keeping an eye on the 2 main reservoirs down here in the SW, one is now over 90% and the other is just over 80%, it's taken over a year to get to that point (from 45% this time last year) but the models are showing a lot more rain so I expect to see them both full by mid-March.  However it only takes 8 months of no rain to basically empty them.
 

We are at 98% which is the same as 2 years ago. However, by the September of that year we were down to 32%

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I'm not looking forward to the last week of winter. It looks quite cold, but not cold enough so thoroughly miserable. 😠

Typical late Feb/ March weather, and the very reason why I hate this time of year. 

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Way too much emphasis has been placed on the strat since the Beast. Or to be more precise, a SSW is viewed too simplistically by some as a lucky dip route to cold and snow. 

No one mentioned it before this event. It’s the latest buzz phrase along with so many others over the years that people hang their hat on as the holy grail before realising it’s way more complex than one event

Speak for yourself. I have been following the strat forecasts since the early 2000's when I also discovered they were responsibly for a good many of our more potent wintry episodes IE 47, 56, 63, 81, 85 and 91 to name but a few. 
For someone who CLAIMS to know the complexities and intertwining of the different telleconnections and yet you fail to see the importance of the strat and how much more dominance and bearing it has on the troposphere sensible weather than that of the MJO, GLAMM, GWO etc, etc, etc, etc on our tiny little island.  Sorry do not mean to laugh but just can't help it, thanks to yourself and fellow afficionados of the telleconnection world  the idea that you all had found a crystal ball to predicting the weather two, three weeks in advance or more have shown us mere mortal amateur weather enthusiasts what a crook load of sh-t it is.  
The strat, telleconnections, sea temps, etc all play a part the climate and global weather but it is laughable to think that a few amateurs using the GDSM along with all the above can accurately predict all the interacting forcings and what weight to give to each individual variable to reach an accurate outlook. The science is not nonsense just the people who  arrogantly claim to be able to read and forecast it. lol.






























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Speak for yourself. I have been following the strat forecasts since the early 2000's when I also discovered they were responsibly for a good many of our more potent wintry episodes IE 47, 56, 63, 81, 85 and 91 to name but a few. 
For someone who CLAIMS to know the complexities and intertwining of the different telleconnections and yet you fail to see the importance of the strat and how much more dominance and bearing it has on the troposphere sensible weather than that of the MJO, GLAMM, GWO etc, etc, etc, etc on our tiny little island.  Sorry do not mean to laugh but just can't help it, thanks to yourself and fellow afficionados of the telleconnection world  the idea that you all had found a crystal ball to predicting the weather two, three weeks in advance or more have shown us mere mortal amateur weather enthusiasts what a crook load of sh-t it is.  
The strat, telleconnections, sea temps, etc all play a part the climate and global weather but it is laughable to think that a few amateurs using the GDSM along with all the above can accurately predict all the interacting forcings and what weight to give to each individual variable to reach an accurate outlook. The science is not nonsense just the people who  arrogantly claim to be able to read and forecast it. lol.
 

The stratosphere is behaving oddly this winter, isn’t it?   The latest ECM ensemble mean shows yet another reversal in the first week of March.  I wonder whether that will verify and whether it will mean an unwelcome cold start to spring, although I would take an extended period of cold if it was also dry and calmer.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202402170000 

 

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The stratosphere is behaving oddly this winter, isn’t it?   The latest ECM ensemble mean shows yet another reversal in the first week of March.  I wonder whether that will verify and whether it will mean an unwelcome cold start to spring, although I would take an extended period of cold if it was also dry and calmer.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202402170000 

 

Great posts -a most interesting discussion. Needs a fire and a glass of Laffroaig with just a dash of water! Do you think Jan 1987 was also precipitated by a SSW?

This year is peculiar, and there are some significant factors at play perhaps - the strong ElNino (can’t remember there being one since the almost frostless winter of 1989; and the methane leak from that oil well drilling maybe! Who knows what else !! Anyway on the models - there seems to be an extended polar maritime dominated period of rather cold and blustery spring weather - most unpleasant for
man, dog and beasts, but good reservoir and aquifer fillers in one of our driest months of the year - may be a little snow on highest hills for the bravest rambler !!

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WX temp charts looking familiar this morning - mild over most of Europe, indeed much above norm in SE Europe, freezing weather from Scandinavia east into Russia. The latter persists into week2, and the interest is perhaps just how much some cooler (but not freezing) weather moves SW-wards. This morning this cooling is more extensive than shown yesterday, affecting most of Europe N of the Alps and including N Britain. Pptn fairly widespread in Europe in week 1, heaviest near Brittany; still present but fading in the west in week 2 while becoming more intense in the eastern Med.

GFS Op - starting as before mild zonal W/SW-ly between HP France and LP Greenland, this failing from Wed 21st as the LP shifts to Faeroes Thu 22nd 960mb with trough extending S to cover Britain with cold NW-lies, slowly filling and slipping SE-wards into the Med Tue 27th. Pressure rises over Britain for a few days then a new LP arrives from the NW 980mb N Ireland Sat 2nd, at first linking with the remnants of the LP in the Med, then by Tue 5th growing its own circulation - SW gales for Britain but these formed of returning polar maritime air so cool and probably showery.

ECM - similar to GFS but LP Thu 22nd deepens over the N Sea before splitting Tue 27th, part heading for the Med as above, part moving to Scandinavia.

GEFS - mild dropping (irregularly in the N) sharply to norm Thu 22nd and staying there (or a little cooler) through to Tue 5th, most ens members clustered around the norm but several milder exceptions but not colder ones. Rain generally from Tue 20th, heaviest for the first 5  or 6 days after this esp in S & W, some N & E areas less affected

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Hope the 6z op has it wrong for next weekend would be a disaster in the south

Hope the 6z op has it wrong for next weekend would be a disaster in the south

965mb Isle of Wight midnight Sat into Sun and possibly cold enough for snow.

Have I done the redtops an injustice?

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It just looks thoroughly wet and miserable.  Very mild upto 22nd then cool and wet. Lots of flooding will be the headline rather than snow.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=18&run=6&time=339&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

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It just looks thoroughly wet and miserable.  Very mild upto 22nd then cool and wet. Lots of flooding will be the headline rather than snow.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=18&run=6&time=339&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

indeed the flood threat could be quite bad - coupled with potential for wind. Hopefully next weekend will turn out nice!

indeed the flood threat could be quite bad - coupled with potential for wind. Hopefully next weekend will turn out nice!

Based on what I've seen recently, the ground is saturated in much of the southern half of the UK. Further flooding is inevitable in the next few weeks if the computer models are right.  

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