You pays your money (and you takes your choice). There is interest for cold weather fans as we head through February. However, at the moment it all looks tenuous to me, particularly if you live in the south. 

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You pays your money (and you takes your choice). There is interest for cold weather fans as we head through February. However, at the moment it all looks tenuous to me, particularly if you live in the south. 

Indeed, Brian: marginality is the watchword for those outside the favoured spots in the far north and atop the northern hills. 

'Twas ever thus this winter – no dressing it up for 70-80% of the UK population. 

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You pays your money (and you takes your choice). There is interest for cold weather fans as we head through February. However, at the moment it all looks tenuous to me, particularly if you live in the south. 

first attempt looks cold and wet! Hopefully more interesting second half of the month when hopefully heights really get established 

I’m liking the look of the 12zs 
ICON, UKMO and gfs all show a sliding scenario 

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Widespread snow on this op run for end of next week. Hinged on the low pressure position now where have we seen that before

Indeed snowy GFS 12z. And Ukmo looks snowy to me. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmoeu.php?&ech=168&mode=0 
 

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Is the Siberian high on the move on GFS?

Indeed snowy GFS 12z. And Ukmo looks snowy to me. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmoeu.php?&ech=168&mode=0 
 

definitely looks snowy - surprised not more interest! It’s only a model……cheer up everyone!

Indeed snowy GFS 12z. And Ukmo looks snowy to me. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmoeu.php?&ech=168&mode=0 
 

You would be correct according to the precip chart:



Certainly seems to be an elevated chance of somewhere getting a transient but potentially disruptive snowfall as the jet wanders south and LPs engage the colder air moving south.

 

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You would be correct according to the precip chart:



Certainly seems to be an elevated chance of somewhere getting a transient but potentially disruptive snowfall as the jet wanders south and LPs engage the colder air moving south.

 

Yes please 🙏 

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All comes down to how fast the low develops:

Too slow: Weak shortwave passes into France, likely northerly toppler/nothingburger thereafter

Too fast: Overdeveloped when arriving in the UK pulling up warmer winds from the south east and mixing out the airmasses north of the triple point. Snow mostly limited to the mountains of Scotland.

Just right: Strong temp gradient across the country; snow somewhere in the middle and Nerly winds after for at least sometime.


All of these are possible, wouldn't count on option 2 just yet until there is more agreement.

 

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The Ukm between 144 and 168 is beautiful only problem is I’m flying back to the uk from Portugal on the 8th 😅

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The Ukm between 144 and 168 is beautiful only problem is I’m flying back to the uk from Portugal on the 8th 😅

Might be worth considering getting a flight back a day or two earlier, just in case! 🙂

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Netweather's snow risk charts show the M4 barrier in good working order https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/snow-risk 

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You would be correct according to the precip chart:



Certainly seems to be an elevated chance of somewhere getting a transient but potentially disruptive snowfall as the jet wanders south and LPs engage the colder air moving south.

 

Dissappointing. Looks very marginal for London. If the frontal snow on that chart misses London, 80% or so of the UK population will miss out .....😇

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Dissappointing. Looks very marginal for London. If the frontal snow on that chart misses London, 80% or so of the UK population will miss out .....😇

Only about 13% of the UK population live in London. 

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The Ukm between 144 and 168 is beautiful only problem is I’m flying back to the uk from Portugal on the 8th 😅

I wouldn’t worry!

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GEM op the pick this morning!

If GEM are on the money northern France Benelux countries will get buried, Southern counties may see the odd flake as they miss out again...all in all a lot more believable   

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The output does seem to be forming up on a cooler and more unsettled picture. The GEFS suite is taking that distinctive shape again (albeit for my location where no one lives): https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.25 




Coukd be very wet and windy but there is a chance that it could be wintry in places too.

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