Brian Gaze
01 February 2024 14:09:55
You pays your money (and you takes your choice). There is interest for cold weather fans as we head through February. However, at the moment it all looks tenuous to me, particularly if you live in the south. 

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Downpour
01 February 2024 14:33:55
Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

You pays your money (and you takes your choice). There is interest for cold weather fans as we head through February. However, at the moment it all looks tenuous to me, particularly if you live in the south. 

UserPostedImage

Indeed, Brian: marginality is the watchword for those outside the favoured spots in the far north and atop the northern hills. 

'Twas ever thus this winter – no dressing it up for 70-80% of the UK population. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
ballamar
01 February 2024 16:13:04
Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

You pays your money (and you takes your choice). There is interest for cold weather fans as we head through February. However, at the moment it all looks tenuous to me, particularly if you live in the south. 

UserPostedImage



first attempt looks cold and wet! Hopefully more interesting second half of the month when hopefully heights really get established 
squish
01 February 2024 16:17:25
I’m liking the look of the 12zs 
ICON, UKMO and gfs all show a sliding scenario 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
ballamar
01 February 2024 16:31:31
Widespread snow on this op run for end of next week. Hinged on the low pressure position now where have we seen that before
Ally Pally Snowman
01 February 2024 16:51:54
Indeed snowy GFS 12z. And Ukmo looks snowy to me. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmoeu.php?&ech=168&mode=0 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
01 February 2024 16:59:34
Is the Siberian high on the move on GFS?
ballamar
01 February 2024 17:34:38
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Indeed snowy GFS 12z. And Ukmo looks snowy to me. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmoeu.php?&ech=168&mode=0 
 


definitely looks snowy - surprised not more interest! It’s only a model……cheer up everyone!
Hippydave
01 February 2024 17:40:40
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Indeed snowy GFS 12z. And Ukmo looks snowy to me. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmoeu.php?&ech=168&mode=0 
 



You would be correct according to the precip chart:

UserPostedImage

Certainly seems to be an elevated chance of somewhere getting a transient but potentially disruptive snowfall as the jet wanders south and LPs engage the colder air moving south.

 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Ally Pally Snowman
01 February 2024 17:42:23
Originally Posted by: Hippydave 

You would be correct according to the precip chart:

UserPostedImage

Certainly seems to be an elevated chance of somewhere getting a transient but potentially disruptive snowfall as the jet wanders south and LPs engage the colder air moving south.

 



Yes please 🙏 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Quantum
01 February 2024 17:58:49
All comes down to how fast the low develops:

Too slow: Weak shortwave passes into France, likely northerly toppler/nothingburger thereafter

Too fast: Overdeveloped when arriving in the UK pulling up warmer winds from the south east and mixing out the airmasses north of the triple point. Snow mostly limited to the mountains of Scotland.

Just right: Strong temp gradient across the country; snow somewhere in the middle and Nerly winds after for at least sometime.


All of these are possible, wouldn't count on option 2 just yet until there is more agreement.

 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Snowedin3
01 February 2024 18:49:07
The Ukm between 144 and 168 is beautiful only problem is I’m flying back to the uk from Portugal on the 8th 😅
Dean Barnes
Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire
160m ASL 525 Ft
David M Porter
01 February 2024 20:25:39
Originally Posted by: Snowedin3 

The Ukm between 144 and 168 is beautiful only problem is I’m flying back to the uk from Portugal on the 8th 😅



Might be worth considering getting a flight back a day or two earlier, just in case! 🙂
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
01 February 2024 20:54:19
Netweather's snow risk charts show the M4 barrier in good working order https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/snow-risk 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Lionel Hutz
01 February 2024 22:14:24
Originally Posted by: Hippydave 

You would be correct according to the precip chart:

UserPostedImage

Certainly seems to be an elevated chance of somewhere getting a transient but potentially disruptive snowfall as the jet wanders south and LPs engage the colder air moving south.

 



Dissappointing. Looks very marginal for London. If the frontal snow on that chart misses London, 80% or so of the UK population will miss out .....😇
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Downpour
02 February 2024 00:10:39
Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 

Dissappointing. Looks very marginal for London. If the frontal snow on that chart misses London, 80% or so of the UK population will miss out .....😇



Only about 13% of the UK population live in London. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Downpour
02 February 2024 00:16:52
Originally Posted by: Snowedin3 

The Ukm between 144 and 168 is beautiful only problem is I’m flying back to the uk from Portugal on the 8th 😅



I wouldn’t worry!
Chingford
London E4
147ft
ballamar
02 February 2024 06:24:14
GEM op the pick this morning!
CField
02 February 2024 06:35:03
If GEM are on the money northern France Benelux countries will get buried, Southern counties may see the odd flake as they miss out again...all in all a lot more believable   
Favourite snowstorm
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Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
doctormog
02 February 2024 06:45:54
The output does seem to be forming up on a cooler and more unsettled picture. The GEFS suite is taking that distinctive shape again (albeit for my location where no one lives): https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.25 

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Coukd be very wet and windy but there is a chance that it could be wintry in places too.
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