The pub run is something of a classic past Day 7 with a building Scandi High that advects a very cold pool westwards over the country and ushers in a snowy few days.  Another random evolution or the first signs of the effect of the wind reversal in the stratosphere?

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The pub run is something of a classic past Day 7 with a building Scandi High that advects a very cold pool westwards over the country and ushers in a snowy few days.  Another random evolution or the first signs of the effect of the wind reversal in the stratosphere?

Despite the quiet - this has been building for a few days TBF, with this run the first time the cold is modelled to advect as far west as the Uk. So yes, for me quite plausibly the result of the SSW. And finally, if a little late for the return of the Beast, and a little less severe, but welcome, even at this late entrance, stage right.

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GFS 0Z Op not too pretty this morning for Coldies looking for that last cold, snowy blast, but there are still 7 perts delivering it, including the Control. Will this SSW deliver? We’ll see soon enough. More runs needed. Tonight’s pub run is the one to watch. E.g https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&time=348&run=0&lid=P04&h=0&tr=6&mv=0 

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WX temp charts show W Europe remains cool, both absolutely and by comparison with norm over the next two weeks. The freezing weather over N Scandinavia and Russia bulks up in week 2 and pushes SW-wards down towards Ukraine - but no Beast from the East for Britain unless one of the extreme perts comes to pass. Rain continues in the band from Atlantic - Britain - France -Italy but in week 2 less in quantity though still present. Dry or very dry for Poland, Ukraine and points E-ward.

GFS Op - current LP moves S to Corsica while a modest pressure rise behind brings in zonal W-lies for Britain and N Europe. These are disrupted Thu 29th by LP 960mb SE Iceland with trough to S England, filling but also moving S so all Britain under LP 1000mb Sun 3rd. This attracts a deeper and colder LP from Greenland on Mon 4th 985mb Clyde. By Wed 6th this has re-formed into a dartboard low mid-Atlantic 955mb with strong S-lies for Britain emphasised by HP Denmark 1040mb Fri 8th. By Tue 12th these have cancelled each other out and we are back to zonal W-lies though cold LP is quite close to Scotland.

ECM - very much like GFS; the HP Thu 7th (cf Fri 8th) is closer, touching E Anglia, so calmer.

GEFS - temps rising to mild Thu 29th but soon dropping back to cool Sat 2nd before mean back to norm Wed 6th. Mean stays near norm but ens members spread out after this date (op and control fancy something milder Fri 8th). Rain Sat 2nd (heaviest in S) with chances of snow even on the S Coast, not much in most runs after that but individuals produce random occasional spikes. 

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Might do some full upper trop analysis later, but the pattern is quite odd.

The tropospheric polar vortex is in complete disarray with a deep cold core low in the North atlantic and a deep warm core high over Scandanavia, eastern canada and (to a lesser extent) eastern siberia.
This could give rise to some unseasonable cold or warmth as I expect this to cause the pattern to become meridonial at the surface.
 

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Not looking like one of those new season, new pattern occasions - generally unsettled, mostly cool in the near to mid term, uncertain thereafter. 

There's been the odd tease if you're looking for something a touch warmer, but nothing sustained and there's enough cooler options around in deep FI too, so no real confidence in the longer term pattern.

The ECM zonal wind prediction has continued to firm up, with the average below -15ms. I assume that's definitely this year's final warming, be interesting to see if anything noticeably blocked arrives later in March, be that warm or cold. I've no idea what effect the final warming usually has, albeit I'm guessing it takes the sting out of the jet somewhat and makes slower moving patterns more likely?

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Might do some full upper trop analysis later, but the pattern is quite odd.

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The tropospheric polar vortex is in complete disarray with a deep cold core low in the North atlantic and a deep warm core high over Scandanavia, eastern canada and (to a lesser extent) eastern siberia.
This could give rise to some unseasonable cold or warmth as I expect this to cause the pattern to become meridonial at the surface.
 

I did think the last few days of model runs were abnormal to the point of weirdness, but when Quantum starts using words like Meridonal (presume this means north-south), and Trop Analysis, I get very interested.  LOL  Please do, as there has been a fair spread of seriously blocked FI scenarios modelled, some advecting cold to the UK, despite the lack of it over the northern continent, where you’d expect it to be hanging at this time of year. I have a hunch that it might be a warm meridonal outcome, but hope still burns eternal for a last sting in a forgettable winter’s tale. 

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The block expected now has cross model support, but the ECM version is interesting for the extreme spring warmth modelled for the 8th, but even though the high is centred over `Denmark, there is cool air over south Eastern Europe that looks to advect over us by the 10th, but nothing cold is modelled so far. It will depend on the precise location of the high, and whether there is any polar continental air around to tap into. Dunces chance for a late sting in the tail of this winter of coldie woe.

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WX temp charts as yesterday show W Europe remaining cool, both absolutely and by comparison with norm over the next two weeks. The freezing weather over N Scandinavia and Russia bulks up in week 2 and pushes SW-wards down towards Ukraine. If any change for Britain, slightly milder in week 2. After the pptn in week 1 which remains in the same place as before (Atlantic - Britain - France - Italy), a dramatic change in week 2 with very dry weather moved from Ukraine to cover virtually all of W Europe, except just the fringes (apologies to Ireland!)

GFS Op - zonal W-lies until Fri 1st when trough from the NW swings into Britain (985mb N Ireland) , drifting into Scotland and filling before new LP also from NW 995mb N Ireland Mon 4th. After that a HP block sets up, beginning 1035mb Norway Wed 6th moving S to Switzerland Tue 12th, S-lies for Britain during this time but with Atlantic LP never far from W Ireland. After that the HP loses control and light W-lies affect Britain.

ECM - minor differences from GFS; the weekend's LP is deeper and centred over England, then the Atlantic LP is not as deep and further to the SW so winds turn SE-ly Fri 8th.

GEFS - mild to finish Feb, dropping to cool with rain as March comes in (good chance of snow briefly), remaining damp (most marked in the S) and cool for the first week of March, with good agreement to this point. Then although mean temp stays near norm, and nearly all members dry, both op & control stupidly warm in the S by Tue 12th only a couple of days after the control run is insanely cold on Sat 9th - so watch this space!

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I see from wxmaps that the high temperature anomaly across Central Europe that has persisted for most of February is set to continue into March. Parts of Hungary, Czechia, Serbia and Romania must be set to smash their February mean temperature records.

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Looks like the long awaited easterly is setting up. Wrong time for cold ! Just chilly and grey perfect for spring

18z GFS ENS show an Interesting (Suddenly out of no where) - snow spikes appearing for Exeter, Devon on 1st March: -  Don't know where this all came from!?

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Pub run less interesting than the 12z, but a few perts keep the block - this being the nirvana version. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&time=354&run=18&lid=P16&h=0&tr=6&mv=0 

However, probably going to be the usual flip-flopping runs as the models get to grips with the SSW.

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18z GFS ENS show an Interesting (Suddenly out of no where) - snow spikes appearing for Exeter, Devon on 1st March: -  Don't know where this all came from!?

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To be fair, there have been a few snow spikes for some time. I earnestly believe they are exaggerated, and that the snow will be for high ground only, but some sleet or wet snow would be a welcome change to endless mild and dampness, which is why, I presume, it has been like a library in this forum of late.

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To be fair, there have been a few snow spikes for some time. I earnestly believe they are exaggerated, and that the snow will be for high ground only, but some sleet or wet snow would be a welcome change to endless mild and dampness, which is why, I presume, it has been like a library in this forum of late.

Yeah I was going to say - Like what? ....an ENS mean/average of 3.3cm of snow for Exeter according to the 18Z GFS Ensembles for Friday morning 1st March.

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Interesting channel low  halfway through the gfs run..not the coldest air being tapped in but could throw up a suprise or two....the only non suprise will probably be it will take the route of the one from January and just miss the south coast and give Brussels another dumping

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Yeah I was going to say - Like what? ....an ENS mean/average of 3.3cm of snow for Exeter according to the 18Z GFS Ensembles for Friday morning 1st March.

I hope it verifies for you, and if anywhere were to get it, I would put a bet on your neck of the woods and South Wales. Back in the late 60s or early 70s, I remember my parents taking me to my uncle’s house for Easter  when he was in Monmouthshire,  and we woke to a foot of snow, then tried to drive home in it. The Seven bridge was closed - so we had a snowy snail like drive with gritters and ploughs to Gloucester and for much of the return journey, but it petered out in Hampshire and by the time we got home to Sussex (where I lived then), there was nothing but damp drizzle.

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Interesting channel low  halfway through the gfs run..not the coldest air being tapped in but could throw up a suprise or two....the only non suprise will probably be it will take the route of the one from January and just miss the south coast and give Brussels another dumping

Looking at this model run, even if it did verify,the precipitation would be cold rain. So that probably means it will, via that massively reliable weather oscillation phenomenon  - Sod’s Law! (PSL Mode - positive sod’s law) 😂

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WX in week 1 cool for W Europe even if the Baltic is outside the freezing area for the first time in a while. In week 2, the colder weather over Russia moves W again, with a band of quite cold weather Scotland - Denmark - Belarus in advance of this, not that the rest of Europe is that warm. Pptn in week 1 as before Britain - France - Italy and in week 2 slipping S-wards but still affecting SW England and Ireland. The very dry area in week 2 referred to yesterday now restricted to Poland - Norway.

GFS Op - LP moving in from the NW 980mb Irish Sea Fri 1st (and bringing a cold plunge with it) staying around as a trough covering Britain before retreating to the west of Ireland for the following week. During that week Britain is on the edge between milder S/SE-lies and polar maritime from the W/NW so anything could happen according to the exact position of the boundary. Later on Fri 8th a smaller LP breaks away from the main trough 995mb Cornwall while at the same time the HP which has been sitting over Norway 1030mb moves W-wards. This sets the trend for the second week with a variety of troughs and LPs affect the SW while pressure is higher N of Scotland (but only 1020mb)

ECM - similar to GFS though LP Fri 8th is less developed

GEFS - a fair amount of rain and on the cool side Fri 1st - Wed 6th, after which a little milder around Fri 8th (led by op & control) before mean drops back to norm; and rain from time to time in this period but not systematic. Regional variations - a lot more rain in the SW throughout; and op/control in the N rather cold  around Mon 11th
 

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Humdinger of an end to the GEM.

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