Has anyone taken a look at the met Office Global long range seasonal probability forecast maps from Jan, Feb to March? If not then Look at pressure... they seem very confident about blocking over Iceland and Greenland.

 

Link please?

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FYI NCEP have reported extra latency on some of their data sets during the last 24 hours. That means some GFS/GEFS/CFS charts could appear later than usual regardless of the site you view them on. 

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Link please?

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/public-sector/contingency-planners

 

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Arpege worth a look at 114 hours...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=114&mode=45&map=300 

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Arpege worth a look at 114 hours...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=114&mode=45&map=300

Amazing how the snow sweeps right down to the coast in northern France, but misses all of southern England!

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The crucial period coming up which will influence the weather to the end of December is over this weekend. GFS 12z and UKMO 12z vary quite a bit at t144 (Monday). The UKMO run builds high pressure from the South whereas GFS is more progressive with the Atlantic LP.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukm&var=1&run=12&time=144&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=144&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=3&mv=0

If GFS verifies then we could well be looking at a very changeable Atlantic dominated spell of weather out to the end of December. If the UKMO verifies there's hints of another blocked spell into next week.

The Met Office extended outlook today seems to favour the GFS evolution. An interesting few days of runs coming up.

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The Liverpool GEFS isn't even as good as that London one, and it's a similar tale in Sheffield & Birmingham. Norwich looks good, though (19 snow rows on Friday/Saturday!).

It's why I struggle to get excited about easterlies. Unless they're from a high to our N or NE, they rarely deliver for this part of the world. Far better blocking to our NW and a big whopping Scandi/north North Sea Low.

 

Spot in Saint, it’s heights to our NW we need. You can keep your Easterlies for me.

Spot in Saint, it’s heights to our NW we need. You can keep your Easterlies for me.

 

bit off topic, but the best snowfalls have always arrived with a LP clipping england when under the influence of an easterly.  a big fat wedge of moisture.  hours and hours of snowfall.  as the LP approaches the winds increase, blizzards.  And you know from the radar youre a good 200 miles from the other side of the system.

Probably the closest we get to a "noreaster"

 

Whereas snow shows feeding off a north west wind really are hit and miss, mostly hail and if youre near the coast, more often, rain.

 

Easterlys almost guarantee you anything that falls from the sky will be snow - even in marginal conditions.  Whereas ive had nailed on conditions from a northerly and its been hail and sleet.  Saying that, the slightest wrong angle and its dry air over the pennines for us in the north west.

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bit off topic, but the best snowfalls have always arrived with a LP clipping england when under the influence of an easterly.  a big fat wedge of moisture.  hours and hours of snowfall.  as the LP approaches the winds increase, blizzards.  And you know from the radar youre a good 200 miles from the other side of the system.

Probably the closest we get to a "noreaster"

 

Whereas snow shows feeding off a north west wind really are hit and miss, mostly hail and if youre near the coast, more often, rain.

 

Easterlys almost guarantee you anything that falls from the sky will be snow - even in marginal conditions.  Whereas ive had nailed on conditions from a northerly and its been hail and sleet.  Saying that, the slightest wrong angle and its dry air over the pennines for us in the north west.

I know we’re off topic but when I say look NW I meant for heights becoming established over Greenland rather than East. I’ll say no more on the topic now. 🙄

 

 

bit off topic, but the best snowfalls have always arrived with a LP clipping england when under the influence of an easterly.  a big fat wedge of moisture.  hours and hours of snowfall.  as the LP approaches the winds increase, blizzards.  And you know from the radar youre a good 200 miles from the other side of the system.

Probably the closest we get to a "noreaster"

 

Whereas snow shows feeding off a north west wind really are hit and miss, mostly hail and if youre near the coast, more often, rain.

 

Easterlys almost guarantee you anything that falls from the sky will be snow - even in marginal conditions.  Whereas ive had nailed on conditions from a northerly and its been hail and sleet.  Saying that, the slightest wrong angle and its dry air over the pennines for us in the north west.

It’s basically the opposite of that here - easterlies will almost always deliver rain (even the cold ones), a decent northerly (a rare Beast these days) will almost always give snow here.

On that subject some transient snow still looks possible for inland northern parts especially with elevation at the weekend before things become more unsettled (or not knowing the case of the 12z UKMO). Nothing too notable in terms of temperature one way or the other.

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For me its northerlies that are now pretty much useless.  Up til about 2006 these could pack punch.  The October 2008 was one of the last Arctic hurrahs down here.

I think the already known massive warming of the Arctic has meant these airmasses are now rarely capable of delivering much in the way of cold, let alone snow for the south.  Places like Portsmouth struggle to get below 9c in a northerly.

A most distressing reality, as I always used to love a northerly as a kid and teenage weather fanatic.

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Link please?

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

 

 

This below seems quite significant - denotes blocking to our north!? - Jan to March? - as you can see..?

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Tally, those are probability anomaly charts.  The pressure one just suggests low pressure won't be as deep as usual to our north and high pressure will be less to our south. It is not forecasting any blocking necessarily.  That's also supported by the temperature charts which don't show the expected negative anomalies.

What leaps out on those charts is the likely dominance of above-normal temperatures  across pretty much the entire planet.

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That atlantic push on saturday has inched further south again.

1 more step closer to an undercut with the HP winning out again...

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Tally, those are probability anomaly charts.  The pressure one just suggests low pressure won't be as deep as usual to our north and high pressure will be less to our south. It is not forecasting any blocking necessarily.  That's also supported by the temperature charts which don't show the expected negative anomalies.

What leaps out on those charts is the likely dominance of above-normal temperatures  across pretty much the entire planet.

Temperature anomaly charts are notoriously devoid of any accuracy period, the rest of your post is indeed correct though.😁

Little lobe of HP into Scandinavia
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_147_1.png

I genuinely think we are in thr midst of a transition in the charts to a full blocked solution. Not for FI either.

Looking back at the last few days we have migrated from an unsettled LP positioned over the atlantic... running up to the arctic. On this evenings 6z run we have a LP that stalls to the west of scandi.. pressure consistently rising or rather not dropping to the north.

Meanwhile wedges of milder air run up to UK and are defusing in strength on every run.


Its a weight tipping game this ... matter of time. When not if.

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If significant HLB is on the table and if it’s positioned to direct cold uppers our way, at least these options should be available on the GEFS suite in the latter stages. I’ve seen previous little of this in the last week or so, and until outliers as cold options appear, I’m not buying into any forecast that supports this.
Taken on face value the last week of the year looks mild and unsettled at the moment.

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Pizza slice over the UK once again for Xmas Day:

 

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Tally, those are probability anomaly charts.  The pressure one just suggests low pressure won't be as deep as usual to our north and high pressure will be less to our south. It is not forecasting any blocking necessarily.  That's also supported by the temperature charts which don't show the expected negative anomalies.

What leaps out on those charts is the likely dominance of above-normal temperatures  across pretty much the entire planet.

YES but if you go back to Jan - March 2018 from December 2017 - the Met Forecast mild and we all know Feb and March turned out blocked and colder after the SSW. tHIS Year we are expecting one in 2 weeks time. SO here's to some cold and blocked weather for January/?

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