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Part of me still thinks the high could hold hahahttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_48_1.png
The 06z delays things a little more but there's a rise of pressure from the south-west that effectively cuts off any chance of energy slipping SE at the weekend. It also fizzles the first frontal system in the south.
indeed ideally that little low would deepen in Biscay and sink that high to the south - close this time but promising repeating attern hopefully
The anomaly over eastern Europe next week is between 0 and 2c; hardly significant or dramatic surely?The charts haven’t ever really suggested either an extended cold spell or a particularly cold one.
The anomaly over eastern Europe next week is between 0 and 2c; hardly significant or dramatic surely?
The charts haven’t ever really suggested either an extended cold spell or a particularly cold one.
That's what comes of looking at early morning charts. It was around +8C anywhere east of Poland at 7am GMT, and, yes, it's now back down as you say. The deep reds NE of the Urals were much further west. Just illustrates the variability in forecasts that we're seeing at the moment.
I guess one positive is that we cant yet rule out a White Xmas. Normally by this time it is all over for another year, but there is still enough uncertainty to cling to
Yes, sometimes I wonder why we bother....
Messy outlook from this GFS run, at this time of year can lead to surprise snowfalls
The 06z throws up another push of WAA in time to give a seasonal feel to Christmas but everything is further east due to more energy in the jetstream pushing out of North America. Just another variation on a theme, of course, at this range.
One thing is clear: there's no evidence of proper mobile zonality returning.
Um...
Eh?? That's one LP system, not mobile zonality. It's also just one snapshot when you need to see the movie.
Thats true - but more important again is to identity the trends over time and that pressure pattern (or something similar to it) has been appearing quite a lot over the last few days. It has Positive phase of the NAO written all over it which in turn is supported by the emerging MJO. At the moment, the evidence is pointing towards a mobile, changeable and rather mild Christmas. Of course, if we just happen to tap into a short period of Pm air to the rear of a low pressure system...who knows. Two weeks out - its just too early to say. I wouldn't even be overly confident about this weekend.....though an Atlantic storm of some sort seems possible.....
very reasoned post John. A more mobile and changeable pattern could be the form horse towards Christmas, nothing overly mild though I wouldn’t have thought. A few eyes will be watching water levels as i wouldn’t be at all surprised if it turned quite wet.
Snow rows up to 9 on the 14th. Very poor after that though . looking very average fairly wet all the way to Christmas.
My point was that on the recent runs there have been very few LP systems running across the Atlantic. On the 06z there are two in 10 days, which to me is nothing like a mobile pattern.
As for a positive NAO, you may be right but the modesl are not showing that as translating into typical zonality yet. As it stands we're not looking at feeding off scraps of transient Pm air just yet.
GEFS isnt hinting at it, but i feel like weve been here before... I think theres a blind chance we maybe heading towards a more prolonged easterly. Each run the atlantic seems to be forced a little more south, and the pressure to the north a little more pronounced.
Even the LP in the med seems a little more "Pepped up " which seems to beckon the LP tracks towards it.
My idea just isnt present in the charts yet.
it feels like we are heading towards a tipping point where the floodgates will open to the idea...
Shoot me down - but im sure weve seen this before.
GEFS isnt hinting at it, but i feel like weve been here before... I think theres a blind chance we maybe heading towards a more prolonged easterly. Each run the atlantic seems to be forced a little more south, and the pressure to the north a little more pronounced.Even the LP in the med seems a little more "Pepped up " which seems to beckon the LP tracks towards it. My idea just isnt present in the charts yet. it feels like we are heading towards a tipping point where the floodgates will open to the idea... Shoot me down - but im sure weve seen this before.
I tend to agree with you but think we will have to wait to about New Years day ish before it kicks in. Decent update from the Met Office today would suggest about then as well.
The Liverpool GEFS isn't even as good as that London one, and it's a similar tale in Sheffield & Birmingham. Norwich looks good, though (19 snow rows on Friday/Saturday!).
It's why I struggle to get excited about easterlies. Unless they're from a high to our N or NE, they rarely deliver for this part of the world. Far better blocking to our NW and a big whopping Scandi/north North Sea Low.
One LP system, but symptomatic of a pretty zonal pattern around the northern hemisphere. Look at the shape of the PFJ - it basically traces a roundabout, rather than the rollercoaster of peaks and troughs that would produce more chance of something interesting from the north or east.
Until that big purple blob gets squeezed or bisected and stops looking basically circular, it's going to be yawnsville as far as our weather is concerned. Hopefully that will begin to happen towards the end of the month.
Very low chance below 5% but it would fascinate me if it did happen like when fronts used to get pushed back west unexpectedly and the analysis of what happened. Until the high is gone an SW winds in place I hold out hope but that’s all it is!!
Has anyone taken a look at the met Office Global long range seasonal probability forecast maps from Jan, Feb to March? If not then Look at pressure... they seem very confident about blocking over Iceland and Greenland.