YES but if you go back to Jan - March 2018 from December 2017 - the Met Forecast mild and we all know Feb and March turned out blocked and colder after the SSW. tHIS Year we are expecting one in 2 weeks time. SO here's to some cold and blocked weather for January/?

Maybe but don’t get your hopes up just yet.

Anyway, what you’ve said isn’t relevant to your apparent misinterpretation of those charts, which was my point.  You’re not the first person to misread an anomaly chart.

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Maybe but don’t get your hopes up just yet.

Anyway, what you’ve said isn’t relevant to your apparent misinterpretation of those charts, which was my point.  You’re not the first person to misread an anomaly chart.

What do you make of this then from the Met Office and their updated ensemble mean anomaly? They have (if anything) strengthened the block since last months update. It's quite a strong signal for northern Blocking.

Southerly tracking lows me thinks and bitterly cold easterly winds at times!?

2-4 months:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

3- 5 Months

 

Now look at the Temperature mean:

2 - 4 Months

3 - 5 Months:

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Anyway, what you’ve said isn’t relevant to your apparent misinterpretation of those charts, which was my point.  You’re not the first person to misread an anomaly chart.

Indeed, I remember someone with a rather large ego doing just the same several years ago - and boy, did they sulk when that was explained to them. Anyway, those charts are just raw GLOSEA output - one of a large pot of charts. The long-range ECM has an interesting pressure anomaly by week 6, which is an unusually strong signal that far out:

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2018/12/06/00/ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2018120600_1104.png

To me, that'd suggest lows tracking much further south than normal.

The contingency planners' forecast, which combines GLOSEA, the ECM and others, shows a marked cold signal for December-January-Fenruary. Now that is unusual in that product, which normally shows a milder than average winter period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-djf-v2.pdf

 

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Indeed, I remember someone with a rather large ego doing just the same several years ago - and boy, did they sulk when that was explained to them. Anyway, those charts are just raw GLOSEA output - one of a large pot of charts. The long-range ECM has an interesting pressure anomaly by week 6, which is an unusually strong signal that far out:

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2018/12/06/00/ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2018120600_1104.png

To me, that'd suggest lows tracking much further south than normal.

The contingency planners' forecast, which combines GLOSEA, the ECM and others, shows a marked cold signal for December-January-Fenruary. Now that is unusual in that product, which normally shows a milder than average winter period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-djf-v2.pdf

 

Bit surprised they say that we are in for a moderate El Nino this winter? I thought we were struggling to get a weak one!?

And how often do we get this forecast from the MET OFFICE?

"For December-January-February as a whole, below-average temperatures are more likely than above-average temperatures, with the highest chances of impacts from cold weather later in the period"

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Crumb of comfort today is the Arctic High on ECM appearing - hopefully that can start making a regular appearance in the output as that’s what brings us frigid air

Canadian GEM wants to promote heights further North ..Nice to see but wide of the mark from Ecm/Gfs....

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Almost a channel low 😂

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_117_1.png 

"Tis the season for jam tomorrow, tra la la la la la la la la la"

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Indeed, I remember someone with a rather large ego doing just the same several years ago - and boy, did they sulk when that was explained to them. Anyway, those charts are just raw GLOSEA output - one of a large pot of charts. The long-range ECM has an interesting pressure anomaly by week 6, which is an unusually strong signal that far out:

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2018/12/06/00/ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2018120600_1104.png

To me, that'd suggest lows tracking much further south than normal.

The contingency planners' forecast, which combines GLOSEA, the ECM and others, shows a marked cold signal for December-January-Fenruary. Now that is unusual in that product, which normally shows a milder than average winter period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-djf-v2.pdf

 

😂😂😂 Mr Hugo by any chance. 😁

For the next 10 days at least it’s looking a fairly mobile setup but certainly not mild on the whole with our airmass coming mainly from a W/NW direction. Still looking into the realms of FI for crumbs of comfort for deep cold down the line but I wouldn’t rule out a white Xmas for some with the current Synoptics on offer.

Still some hope for the Xmas period

 

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Let's bank the GFS Parallel 0Z run for Xmas day.

 

 

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Let's bank the GFS Parallel 0Z run for Xmas day.

 

 

Lets not....... IMBY is snowless. 😁

Still some hope for the Xmas period

 

 

If you like cold rain!!

 

 

If you like cold rain!!

Depends on your location. 

Given its quiet think we will start to see signs of Siberian high influencing Europe towards the end of GFS in the next run or hoping !!

Potential gets blown away so easily shame

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_45_1.png 

very different 

 

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12z( GFS ) gives us something new and very acceptable 

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12z( GFS ) gives us something new and very acceptable 

I'd take that. At least it'd spare me the effort of issuing loads of travel advisories associated with stormy or snowy weather on my own forecasts in the run up to Christmas.

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