Things continue to look mixed this evening. Onwards...

Progresssive NWP tonight with the PV building and sending systems West to East, potential for some high rainfall totals especially in the West.

ECM 12z run actually reminds me quite a lot of the pattern we had for much of last winter, i.e a NW-SE flow with occasional spells of wintry weather over northern parts. Back in mid-January this year we actually had quite a bit of snow over the course of 5-6 days in my area from this kind of set-up.

Progresssive NWP tonight with the PV building and sending systems West to East, potential for some high rainfall totals especially in the West.

 

Doesn't look to be building that strongly to me, Ian. I have seen it rather stronger at this time of year in the past than is currently being indicated.

Progresssive NWP tonight with the PV building and sending systems West to East, potential for some high rainfall totals especially in the West.

 

Looks like the jet is on a NW/SE trajectory and could yield some unexpected delights for those North of the Midlands Ian.

I agree with this- the warm sectors rushing in s of the lows seem to slow, thin, and then mix out. Lots of slider potential still.

Rhyme time:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=417

Slow snow row though.

Nothing overly cold nor overly mild over the next 10 day's looking at the ECM 850s mean we've had a slight increase on the 11th compared to the 00z. Looks fairly standard stuff for the time of year

Got the feeling it will be a true pub run with a strong high, anyway soon see

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Hopefully not positioned over Spain....

EC46 has seemingly picked up on the likely SSW towards month end. 

For such a time frame (5 weeks out) it has picked up a very strong signal for Greenland heights and Euro trough...

Pretty much bang in line with seasonal modelling.

If this holds, I would expect the Metoffice to start publishing some wintry sounding long range outlooks in the not too distant future.

EC46 has seemingly picked up on the likely SSW towards month end. 

For such a time frame (5 weeks out) it has picked up a very strong signal for Greenland heights and Euro trough...

Pretty much bang in line with seasonal modelling.

If this holds, I would expect the Metoffice to start publishing some wintry sounding long range outlooks in the not too distant future.

How many times has the Ec 46 been correct that far ahead in the past,hardly any i would imagine.

Heck the ecm had us all under an easterly flow for next week ,now it’s not looking likely at all.

Good luck to anyone hanging of seasonal forecast models hoping for cold or snow.

 

How many times has the Ec 46 been correct that far ahead in the past,hardly any i would imagine.

Heck the ecm had us all under an easterly flow for next week ,now it’s not looking likely at all.

Good luck to anyone hanging of seasonal forecast models hoping for cold or snow.

 

Yes the EC46 has a poor record over the last few winters. A very progressive GFS this morning, with flooding becoming an issue should it verify. I think any notion of a mid December settled spell that the METO were talking about has now disappeared.

On the plus side we should soon be able to stop worrying about the possibility of hosepipe bans next summer. To the best of my knowledge we are now getting the right kind of rain to top up the reservoirs. 

On the plus side we should soon be able to stop worrying about the possibility of hosepipe bans next summer. To the best of my knowledge we are now getting the right kind of rain to top up the reservoirs. 

I'd much prefer 6 feet of snow to slowly melt in March...🤔😆