Not much sign of cold and blocked outcomes. Perhaps the ECM is very different or otherwise the Met Office may want to see if there is a bug in Decider. 

Forecasts for the mid/long term and model ouput have been chopping and changing on a daily basis with big swings between height rises to our E/NE and an Atlantic onslaught, thus far I’d say the Atlantic has the upper hand and it may well turn out that this winter will be a close but no cigar event as we end up in a kind of no mans land between a rock and a hard place.

Yes remarkable comeback another 100miles west and that's a decent snow event for the UK

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

 

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The whole run has a different feel could be a few surprises for some

The whole run has a different feel could be a few surprises for some

Yes, funny how the 12Z runs have changed the balance back from a lost cause to a possible chance.

Still looks odds on the Atlantic winning out next week, but not so nailed on as in the 6z runs - trough disruption and the block fighting back are apparent in the latest runs from UKMO and GFS.

Wonder what makes the difference?

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Yes, funny how the 12Z runs have changed the balance back from a lost cause to a possible chance.

Still looks odds on the Atlantic winning out next week, but not so nailed on as in the 6z runs - trough disruption and the block fighting back are apparent in the latest runs from UKMO and GFS.

Wonder what makes the difference?

I wonder if the possbile SSW being predicted by some for later in December could be starting to cause a few headaches for the models.

From what I recall of following the models in February in the lead-up to the Beast from the East at the end of that month, my memory is that for a time, the models that we can see were all over the place, with some showing the block to the NE coming into paly and delivering the Beast while others showed the atlantic staying in control of things. My recollection is that it wasn't until about a week before the Beast struck that there was any real consensus among the model output that it was on the way.

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Expect adjustments nearer the time- though as so often with the UK climate 100 miles either way can effect a rain or snow event. I just hope the UK doesn’t end up as the Atlantic’s toilet

 

Yes, funny how the 12Z runs have changed the balance back from a lost cause to a possible chance.

Still looks odds on the Atlantic winning out next week, but not so nailed on as in the 6z runs - trough disruption and the block fighting back are apparent in the latest runs from UKMO and GFS.

Wonder what makes the difference?

Entering the more reliable timeframe i would have thought 

 

Yes, funny how the 12Z runs have changed the balance back from a lost cause to a possible chance.

Still looks odds on the Atlantic winning out next week, but not so nailed on as in the 6z runs - trough disruption and the block fighting back are apparent in the latest runs from UKMO and GFS.

Wonder what makes the difference?

 

Lower heights over the Med? Lack of shortwave development from the Low?

 

 

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Strat starting to get toasty at 384h 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=10&carte=1

 

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Strat starting to get toasty at 384h 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=10&carte=1

 

More importantly, initiation now creeping towards the day 10 marker. 

Still all looks to be coming together for an early Jan cold spell...

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More importantly, initiation now creeping towards the day 10 marker. 

Still all looks to be coming together for an early Jan cold spell...

But oh so frustrating - strong PV at +384z

 

 

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More importantly, initiation now creeping towards the day 10 marker. 

Still all looks to be coming together for an early Jan cold spell...

 

This with the ECM 46 dayer things do look very good for January still need luck though with SSWs.

 

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More importantly, initiation now creeping towards the day 10 marker. 

Still all looks to be coming together for an early Jan cold spell...

I'd just be very careful about talking about a change for the end of the month/January. There was similar fervent speculation 20 years ago about January 1999 but the zonal train just rolled on.

 

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But oh so frustrating - strong PV at +384z

 

 

 

That is a completely disorganised PV with a whopper of an Aleutian low. Good signal for SSW.

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But oh so frustrating - strong PV at +384z

 

 

I'm not for one minute questioning your chart analysing abilities, but that's far from a strong PV. It's stretched (non orbital) and there's a huge omnipresent siberian HP which is inflicting the last rites on the vortex at strat level.

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But oh so frustrating - strong PV at +384z

 

 

 

I think the earliest effects for the UK from the SSW will start early January Tally.

 

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I'd just be very careful about talking about a change for the end of the month/January. There was similar fervent speculation 20 years ago about January 1999 but the zonal train just rolled on.

 

The vast majority of the seasonals and now the EC46 have pinned their colours to the mast WRT where the blocking sets up show. This is shown emphatically to be Iceland-Greenland.

Of course things can go wrong, but we're about as loaded towards a cold outcome as we can be at this range.

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The vast majority of the seasonals and now the EC46 have pinned their colours to the mast WRT where the blocking sets up show. This is shown emphatically to be Iceland-Greenland.

Of course things can go wrong, but we're about as loaded towards a cold outcome as we can be at this range.

The EC46 is just a model and could easily be wrong but also beware broken records proclaiming endless zonality just to get a respons. 

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Nothings ever nailed in meteorology but when you’ve got all of the big players all singing from the same hymn sheet for the winter ahead then you have to have a little more faith than usual. Of course Ian could well be proven right but the NH profile is nothing like it was in 97.

ECM will be interesting to see if there is any westward influence of the high. Runs off slightly more current data so would be a good sign if it does