Things continue to look mixed this evening. Onwards...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_144_1.png 

Progresssive NWP tonight with the PV building and sending systems West to East, potential for some high rainfall totals especially in the West.

ECM 12z run actually reminds me quite a lot of the pattern we had for much of last winter, i.e a NW-SE flow with occasional spells of wintry weather over northern parts. Back in mid-January this year we actually had quite a bit of snow over the course of 5-6 days in my area from this kind of set-up.

Doesn't look to be building that strongly to me, Ian. I have seen it rather stronger at this time of year in the past than is currently being indicated.

I agree with this- the warm sectors rushing in s of the lows seem to slow, thin, and then mix out. Lots of slider potential still.

Rhyme time:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=417

Slow snow row though.

Not far off a snow event for NE few small adjustments needed

Nothing overly cold nor overly mild over the next 10 day's looking at the ECM 850s mean we've had a slight increase on the 11th compared to the 00z. Looks fairly standard stuff for the time of year

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Hopefully not positioned over Spain....

EC46 has seemingly picked up on the likely SSW towards month end. 

For such a time frame (5 weeks out) it has picked up a very strong signal for Greenland heights and Euro trough...

Pretty much bang in line with seasonal modelling.

If this holds, I would expect the Metoffice to start publishing some wintry sounding long range outlooks in the not too distant future.

How many times has the Ec 46 been correct that far ahead in the past,hardly any i would imagine.

Heck the ecm had us all under an easterly flow for next week ,now it’s not looking likely at all.

Good luck to anyone hanging of seasonal forecast models hoping for cold or snow.

Yes the EC46 has a poor record over the last few winters. A very progressive GFS this morning, with flooding becoming an issue should it verify. I think any notion of a mid December settled spell that the METO were talking about has now disappeared.

On the plus side we should soon be able to stop worrying about the possibility of hosepipe bans next summer. To the best of my knowledge we are now getting the right kind of rain to top up the reservoirs. 

I'd much prefer 6 feet of snow to slowly melt in March...🤔😆

Definitely needed - the local groundwater is still not only below long-term average, but also marginally below levels recorded at this time in recent years. The decrease in level has slowed down, but not yet rising, though this is not unusual for December.

The message is don't panic, but the rain is wanted to secure supplies.

https://www.bgs.ac.uk/research/groundwater/datainfo/levels/sites/ChilgroveHouse.html 

Wrong thread - you need the one for moaning.

As dissapointing as it is to see the chance of a seasonal cold spell next week diminish, it’s been interesting to see how each algorithm has handled the new signals that started with the GFS output on Tues morning. We saw a lot of ‘but the 06Z is notorious for Atlantic bias’ but I can’t see much evidence for that and to be honest I think the NWP did, and is doing a reasonable job at modelling the pattern given the timescales. I think people expect too much of it and taking a +144 chart at face value is not sensible, even when it’s supported by its peers. The challenge is to find the right blend from the suite of models and ensembles, not be blinkered by your preferences, and wait until there’s solid cross-suite support at +96.

Now, where is that EC46 output? 

Looking for straws to clutch at, I'm reduced to hoping that the 0Z GFS Parallel T+384 chart might come to pass, vanishingly unlikely though that no doubt is. :)