The Weather Outlook

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Chunky Pea
21 December 2018 08:58:06

From a local perspective, this morning's charts show the worst possible outcome over the next 10 days. High pressure close enough to keep any interesting weather that might come this way off the Atlantic well away, but not close enough to bring any frost or fog, and positioned in such a way to ensure a continuous stream of low cloud, high humidity, spits of rain and zero drying and temps as high during the night as during the day. 

 

 

 

 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Lionel Hutz
21 December 2018 08:58:50

Not much cheer in the GFS ensembles https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?modelrun=na&lg=850&lglocation=london


Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



Rob K
21 December 2018 09:18:44

The mild outlook some of us have been prepared to analyse within the 10 day period, continues, and strengthens in confidence this morning. We are probably looking at the second mildest December in the past thirty years (since 1988).

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

That comes as a surprise. Apart from the last few days it really hasn’t felt very mild this month, and we’ve had quite a few sharp frosts. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

LeedsLad123
21 December 2018 09:23:55

 

That comes as a surprise. Apart from the last few days it really hasn’t felt very mild this month, and we’ve had quite a few sharp frosts. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Only 3 frosts here this month but daytime temperatures haven't been especially mild. In fact, only 3 days have been in double digits. Even a normal December probably exceeds that.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Tim A
21 December 2018 09:40:48
It seems like it has been pretty standard here. Ave high 6.5c but nights have probably been warmer than average.

Cool and wet again today 4.5c


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
21 December 2018 09:51:23
Looking at the Op charts for the next 5-10 days this morning across UKM, GFS and ECM all I can say is, if only it was July .....
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
21 December 2018 10:23:50
Mean here is 4.8C which is only +0.5 - hardly a mild month, with highest temperature only 11.6C on the 5th
ballamar
21 December 2018 10:37:23
ballamar
21 December 2018 10:50:19
Still thinking a link to the Arctic high is a distinct possibility and not far off happening - even if the ENS are not reflecting exactly that
Rob K
21 December 2018 11:08:18

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_225_1.png

Just need a bit of luck from here

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Again I think it's pointless hoping for anything much this side of mid-January, with the vortex being pushed across and fairly unanimously set to take up residence over our side of the pole. It's what happens after that that might (or might not) be interesting. (See GW's post in the SSW thread)

 

I think it would benefit everybody to take a week or so's break from the models over Christmas and have another look before New Year, by which time FI might start to look a bit better! Looking between now and then will only depress cold-hunters!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

ballamar
21 December 2018 11:45:11

 

Again I think it's pointless hoping for anything much this side of mid-January, with the vortex being pushed across and fairly unanimously set to take up residence over our side of the pole. It's what happens after that that might (or might not) be interesting. (See GW's post in the SSW thread)

 

I think it would benefit everybody to take a week or so's break from the models over Christmas and have another look before New Year, by which time FI might start to look a bit better! Looking between now and then will only depress cold-hunters!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

 

Not convinced nothing wont crop before then, we are close to getting something interesting in my mind and yesterday’s GFS run shows how it can happen. Will keep an eye on the models over the next week even if they look mild!!

Brian Gaze
21 December 2018 11:50:54

Closing at 11:52am.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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